Not a comprehensive study, but there's enough technical information here to highlight a few interesting points.
We're using
BTCUSD (Bitstamp) for our exchange of choice. I like their levels.
For those of you guys who are more auditory learners, I covered this chart on a livestream today which can be found at about the 35 minute marker here.
Some things to keep in mind:
1. History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
2. Average bear markets last 18 months in duration, statistically.
Can also refer back to the chart I published at the original 4K breakout to give you a few more cycle studies layered on top of this one:
2015 Bottom
* Ultimately bottomed between .786 and .886
* Was in "accumulation / consolidation" phase near 18 month marker.
* Spent ~10 months sideways before breaking out.
* Big buy volume came in at the bottom. Sort of "marked" the bottom.
2019 Bottom
* Bottomed between .786 and .886
* No real defined market structure near the lows on the monthly chart. More of a rounded bottom than a proper breakout.
* Spent ~4 months in the trough.
* Relatively very small buy volume came in at the bottom.
What does it mean?
I don't know! Hah. Markets will be markets. They'll do any damn thing they please, right?
What I can glean from the price action coming out ofBTCUSD over the last few months is that we're going to need to come back down and test the original breakout levels, if not the all time lows.
You can use this chart from about a week ago to give you an idea of the levels I'm interested in considering long positions:
I know that nobody wants to hear that I'm looking for a test of the bottom end of the range. Here's my reasoning:
* In my experience I've found the more parabolic the move is off the lows, the more likely we are to come back down and test the bottom end of the range.
* Extremely low buy volume relative to the buying interest that's typical near the bottom end of a bear cycle.
* Public is too excited about the space. I'd rather see them uninterested or offline. Since it's true that the public is almost always wrong, what does it say if everyone in the public still thinks we're going up and the bottom is in?
In Summary:
This isn't a trade setup. I'm just comparing the two charts and giving my opinion (and my opinion really isn't something you should risk your hard earned money on).
Maybe not this month, maybe not the next month, but at some point in the future I'd expect a test of the ~$4.2K neckline level, if not the ~$3.1K lows.
Buy volume seems suspicious. All the public is long. Too much too fast. It feels trappy and I think it's a mistake conning yourself in to FOMOing in and thinking that "you missed your shot at buying."
FREE TRADING EDUCATION:
We talk about all of this stuff every day Monday through Friday in our 100X Challenge livestreams on Youtube. You can check that out here.
If you want to learn the basics of technical analysis, risk management, setups, and the fundamental principles of profitable trading - Check out our Level 1 course.
We're giving it away for free right now (will sell for $2497) for Tradingview users to beta test over the next few weeks. Over 20 hours worth of content, brings you from the ground up and gets you analyzing charts like smart money.
Use discount code 'Tradingview' in the checkout.
- learn more and get a free course preview here.
Cheers,
FromTheEther
We're using
BTCUSD (Bitstamp) for our exchange of choice. I like their levels.For those of you guys who are more auditory learners, I covered this chart on a livestream today which can be found at about the 35 minute marker here.
Some things to keep in mind:
1. History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
2. Average bear markets last 18 months in duration, statistically.
Can also refer back to the chart I published at the original 4K breakout to give you a few more cycle studies layered on top of this one:
2015 Bottom
* Ultimately bottomed between .786 and .886
* Was in "accumulation / consolidation" phase near 18 month marker.
* Spent ~10 months sideways before breaking out.
* Big buy volume came in at the bottom. Sort of "marked" the bottom.
2019 Bottom
* Bottomed between .786 and .886
* No real defined market structure near the lows on the monthly chart. More of a rounded bottom than a proper breakout.
* Spent ~4 months in the trough.
* Relatively very small buy volume came in at the bottom.
What does it mean?
I don't know! Hah. Markets will be markets. They'll do any damn thing they please, right?
What I can glean from the price action coming out of
BTCUSD over the last few months is that we're going to need to come back down and test the original breakout levels, if not the all time lows. You can use this chart from about a week ago to give you an idea of the levels I'm interested in considering long positions:
I know that nobody wants to hear that I'm looking for a test of the bottom end of the range. Here's my reasoning:
* In my experience I've found the more parabolic the move is off the lows, the more likely we are to come back down and test the bottom end of the range.
* Extremely low buy volume relative to the buying interest that's typical near the bottom end of a bear cycle.
* Public is too excited about the space. I'd rather see them uninterested or offline. Since it's true that the public is almost always wrong, what does it say if everyone in the public still thinks we're going up and the bottom is in?
In Summary:
This isn't a trade setup. I'm just comparing the two charts and giving my opinion (and my opinion really isn't something you should risk your hard earned money on).
Maybe not this month, maybe not the next month, but at some point in the future I'd expect a test of the ~$4.2K neckline level, if not the ~$3.1K lows.
Buy volume seems suspicious. All the public is long. Too much too fast. It feels trappy and I think it's a mistake conning yourself in to FOMOing in and thinking that "you missed your shot at buying."
FREE TRADING EDUCATION:
We talk about all of this stuff every day Monday through Friday in our 100X Challenge livestreams on Youtube. You can check that out here.
If you want to learn the basics of technical analysis, risk management, setups, and the fundamental principles of profitable trading - Check out our Level 1 course.
We're giving it away for free right now (will sell for $2497) for Tradingview users to beta test over the next few weeks. Over 20 hours worth of content, brings you from the ground up and gets you analyzing charts like smart money.
Use discount code 'Tradingview' in the checkout.
- learn more and get a free course preview here.
Cheers,
FromTheEther
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.