Bitcoin - a new comprehensive analysis - Must see this!
Updated
Dear Friends
Here is a new comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin on the 12-hour medium-term chart.
Bitcoin broke out of the trading range upwards on August 6 as known to everyone. If we measure and project this range we end up with a price target of around 51000 USD. The interesting thing here is that this is exactly the 0.618 Fibonaccie level from the top (64897) to the bottom (28565). This fib 0.618 level is known to be very strong resistance and it could very well be the top. I hear you guys thinking, the top? ... indeed the top because we are seeing many other factors such as a huge divergence in the RSI. The longer the more effect it has. We also see falling volume with rising price. So this is also a strong negative divergence in price with volume. Compare what happened in the Jan 28 period with falling volume and rising price (turquoise arrows). This always has an effect in the end because a rise must be carried by higher volume otherwise gravity takes over at some point and you get a deep correction.
I have drawn 2 blocks where the price on both blocks started at 29652. The first on January 28, 2021 em the second on July 20, 2021. However, we see that on January 28 the TOTAL volume was much larger during the rise than in the second block. The TOTAL volume in the second block is up to 30% compared to the first period. I made this comparison because both blocks started at the same price so you have a perfect comparison with the second block. This is another additional bearish signal.
We also see a bearish rising wedge validated by a long trend line with the maximum target being 51000 usd.
The factors that make me think of a possible top are these:
1. Bearish rising wedge
2. Large negative divergence in the RSI but also in other oscillators.
3. Large negative divergence with volume and price. Price is rising and volume is falling!
4. Trading range projection is 51000 = also 0.618 fib level + an important keylevel!
5. 51000 is also a very strong resistance of the 0.618 fib level where prices often return.
6. The comparison of the 1st block with much more total volume than this in the 2nd block. (See the arrows).
7. The public opinion of the masses is super bullish. Compare this when Bitcoin was at 64000. Everyone was super bullish and many traders stepped in resulting in mass liquidations which is also the purpose of driving the price up by the whales. They buy low and sell high (when most traders have stepped in)! This is how they make their money!
8. Most people forgot it already but we still have a massive head and shoulders pattern from begin of 2021 till now where we could form the right shoulder at this moment. This would be invalidated with a rise above the old top!
Is there a chance that we will go to 100.000 usd this year? Unfortunately, I don't believe so UNLESS we start to exceed certain levels and volume starts to increase during the rises. So far the opposite is happening. Anything is possible in the crypto world so this is also possible but it doesn't seem very likely to me at the moment.
Now especially keep an eye on 51000 usd. If Bitcoin breaks through this with good volume then the way is open to 57000 and then the old top.
If we are heading down below 51000,57000 or the old top we could be forming a new head and shoulders pattern as drawn with the orange arrows.
My previous analyses are still valid, there are only additional factors that speak against increases as described above.
--- > In this market I advice to use tight stops. <---
Please share your thoughts and idea's below dear friends. What do you think and why do you think it with or without a chart.
I wish you all good luck with trading!
Disclaimer This is my view, no advice to buy or sell. Also always do your own research!
--->> Dear friends please follow me for updates and give me support with a like 👍 if you like me to continue this work. Thanks 💚
Here is a new comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin on the 12-hour medium-term chart.
Bitcoin broke out of the trading range upwards on August 6 as known to everyone. If we measure and project this range we end up with a price target of around 51000 USD. The interesting thing here is that this is exactly the 0.618 Fibonaccie level from the top (64897) to the bottom (28565). This fib 0.618 level is known to be very strong resistance and it could very well be the top. I hear you guys thinking, the top? ... indeed the top because we are seeing many other factors such as a huge divergence in the RSI. The longer the more effect it has. We also see falling volume with rising price. So this is also a strong negative divergence in price with volume. Compare what happened in the Jan 28 period with falling volume and rising price (turquoise arrows). This always has an effect in the end because a rise must be carried by higher volume otherwise gravity takes over at some point and you get a deep correction.
I have drawn 2 blocks where the price on both blocks started at 29652. The first on January 28, 2021 em the second on July 20, 2021. However, we see that on January 28 the TOTAL volume was much larger during the rise than in the second block. The TOTAL volume in the second block is up to 30% compared to the first period. I made this comparison because both blocks started at the same price so you have a perfect comparison with the second block. This is another additional bearish signal.
We also see a bearish rising wedge validated by a long trend line with the maximum target being 51000 usd.
The factors that make me think of a possible top are these:
1. Bearish rising wedge
2. Large negative divergence in the RSI but also in other oscillators.
3. Large negative divergence with volume and price. Price is rising and volume is falling!
4. Trading range projection is 51000 = also 0.618 fib level + an important keylevel!
5. 51000 is also a very strong resistance of the 0.618 fib level where prices often return.
6. The comparison of the 1st block with much more total volume than this in the 2nd block. (See the arrows).
7. The public opinion of the masses is super bullish. Compare this when Bitcoin was at 64000. Everyone was super bullish and many traders stepped in resulting in mass liquidations which is also the purpose of driving the price up by the whales. They buy low and sell high (when most traders have stepped in)! This is how they make their money!
8. Most people forgot it already but we still have a massive head and shoulders pattern from begin of 2021 till now where we could form the right shoulder at this moment. This would be invalidated with a rise above the old top!
Is there a chance that we will go to 100.000 usd this year? Unfortunately, I don't believe so UNLESS we start to exceed certain levels and volume starts to increase during the rises. So far the opposite is happening. Anything is possible in the crypto world so this is also possible but it doesn't seem very likely to me at the moment.
Now especially keep an eye on 51000 usd. If Bitcoin breaks through this with good volume then the way is open to 57000 and then the old top.
If we are heading down below 51000,57000 or the old top we could be forming a new head and shoulders pattern as drawn with the orange arrows.
My previous analyses are still valid, there are only additional factors that speak against increases as described above.
--- > In this market I advice to use tight stops. <---
Please share your thoughts and idea's below dear friends. What do you think and why do you think it with or without a chart.
I wish you all good luck with trading!
Disclaimer This is my view, no advice to buy or sell. Also always do your own research!
--->> Dear friends please follow me for updates and give me support with a like 👍 if you like me to continue this work. Thanks 💚
Note
Update,Not that much has changed dear friends with the last post except that Bitcoin has not yet crossed the 50-51k zone. This could normally be an intermediate top given the ever increasing divergence. Also keep an eye on the volume which is also making a negative divergence.
Buying with these technicals is not interesting since the first support is only at 40k. The Risk Reward is much too low in my opinion. Patience until a clear correction is coming is the message. For traders who do want to go long I recommend a very tight stop as it can all go pretty fast!
Good luck dear friends!
Note
UpdateHello dear friends,
Bitcoin has finally broken the rising wedge downwards as expected by the negative divergences.
We can now calculate a perfect target which is at 35000 usd.
currently BTC has found support at the 0.5 fib level of 46731. The volume is still too low to expect a severe drop but this may change if stops are hit as many traders have become extremely bullish despite the warnings. Corrections always take place but it takes patience.
Please Pay attention to the Fibonacci levels and the RSI can give a direction/ clue for a bottom.
Good luck to you!
Note
UpdateDear Friends
Here is a short update for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is showing a lot of strength as the decline happened on low volume and that is a bullish sign.
However, the negative divergences and the overall low volume remain. The situation with Bitcoin will only improve if it can rise above 51k and we start to see more volume. Until then, the situation and any rise remains not convincing.
Possibly BTC will test the 0.618 - 51k level again. with a breakout upwards the targets are unchanged namely 57k and the out top at 64k. A drop below 46731 will trigger a possible decline to at least 42444. From there we will see how it progresses again!
I wish you all good luck with your trading!
Note
updateDear friends.
I am still on holiday, but here is an update on the heavy decline.
As you can see in my analysis, this is the result of a manipulated market. Compare block 1 with block 2. In block 2 the volume is much less than in block 1. Both blocks started at 29000. It is logical that the price cannot continue to rise if the volume does not increase. The orange and green trajectory has been perfectly valid so far and BTC has even followed this orange trajectory quite accurately!
Currently, the target of the bearish rising wedge is USD 40000. Bitcoin has exactly reached the 2nd range (green). The first one was from 29500 to 40200 and the range projected upwards was 51000 and the 0.618 fib level. Bitcoin went up another USD 2000 to around 53k.
We also see a volume spike during the decline but it is not yet extreme.
Bitcoin has now set a lower low. When the price hits a lower high, the trend is reversed.
Personally, I expect a drop to 40000. If Bitcoin drops below 40000 USD, the price will be back in the old trading range and we will see at that point what the picture looks like.
Personally, I am waiting for confirmation whether the price can go back above 53000 USD. That would invalidate the lower low, lower high scenario. So watch candlsticks carefully as soon as the price rises again. A rise above 53000 with good volume is a sign that Bitcoin will at least test the old top. Then we will see if the top becomes a double top or if the ATH is exceeded which would be bullish (if happens with volume).
I wish you all good profits and tight stops!
Note
UpdateDear Friends,
A picture say more than a thousand words. Btc is forming the right shoulder.
Possible we see a correction to 35000. The wedge is broken to the downside.
If price rise above 51.000 USD as in the original post the next target is 57000.
Look also at the volume. Bearish because when the price increase volume need also and it is doing the opposite.
Note
UPDATE,Dear friends,
Bitcoin has formed the HS Formation as I showed in the last update. Volume is rising in the decline which is bearish. We see now a pullback to the neckline of the HS formation. Final target for this HS is 36500.
Use very tight stops an dthe 1% rule. This way you keep trading also next year!
Wish you all good luck and very nice profits!
Disclaimer
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