21 EMA confirmation and $13,500 resistance zone becoming target?
Descending triangle, symmetrical triangle, we’re going to retest $6,000, inverse head & shoulders, Bakkt futures is going to be negative for the market, just like 2017 CME futures have been.
All things that I’ve been reading lately on twitter or on different channels and basically still calling it noise.
Yes, this could be a descending triangle, however even if it is a descending triangle, then the conclusion will still be that a descending triangle is mostly a continuation pattern and can also break upwards in a sense that the asset (in this regards Bitcoin) is just re-accumulating on a higher level.
This re-accumulation is pretty similar to the different phases we’ve had in 2015/2016 through a parabolic movement upwards, which was followed by a period of sideways and boring notion before a slow grind upwards, ending with a new parabolic push.
Checking the fundamentals of the current market, we can see that Bakkt is going live within a week, which I’m not expecting to have an instant effect, but will be a gradually stronger effect over time -> potentially bringing bigger players to the market and liquidity.
Other than that we still got the potentials of an ETF coming up, the halving mid next year (some people think that this is priced in, but nah, don’t think that events are priced in 9 months before the actual event, as I don’t see media or anything write about it) and more and more stores are accepting Bitcoin as a payment solution.
Would that make you bearish? No, I’m macrowise not bearish. Also knowing that we might hit the 21 Weekly EMA for a test of support, which I’d find crucial, would make me macrowise insanely bullish on this asset.
But what about the descending triangle or symmetrical triangle? Well, if you use different timeframes, it’s also even hard to state that we’ve got a descending triangle here. You’ll have to use the wicks to create the descending triangle. Also, if you use the wicks on some exchanges on the bottom, you could conclude that there’s a symmetrical triangle. All noise and conclusions made for whatever people believe the pattern to be.
At this point I’m seeing that we’re still stuck inside this pattern and through which we’re creating lower volume and liquidity going towards the apex of the pattern. Traders will normally be waiting for a conclusion here before making a decision of the movements.
In that regards my main scenario is that we’re going to see another test on the south around $9,400-9,500 (there we’ve got the 21 EMA on the weekly at this point) to confirm that support, being followed by a slow grind upwards to $14,000 in the months there after. A full closed higher timeframe candle below $9,300-$9,000 would make me bearish and that would result in a failed test of the 21 Weekly EMA.
Funny enough, the Bakkt launch is around the apex of this triangle thingy, which could in the end be a small ‘sell the rumour, buy the news’ example in which the price bottoms out at the launch before starting to rally upwards, but that’s also just a ‘what if’ conclusion from me.
So pretty much summing up I’m expecting that we’re going to see another test around $9,400-9,500 before breaking out upwards, while the price is range-bound currently (in that sense we’ve to lose $10,000 as support before testing $9,400-9,500). Clearly breaking the downtrend line would be a bullish signal aiming for $13,500 back again.
Clearly losing the $9,200-9,400 area as support and that would cause a loss of the 21 Weekly EMA and bearish perspectives.
Interesting things coming up with potentially a huge volume move. Updates will follow.
All things that I’ve been reading lately on twitter or on different channels and basically still calling it noise.
Yes, this could be a descending triangle, however even if it is a descending triangle, then the conclusion will still be that a descending triangle is mostly a continuation pattern and can also break upwards in a sense that the asset (in this regards Bitcoin) is just re-accumulating on a higher level.
This re-accumulation is pretty similar to the different phases we’ve had in 2015/2016 through a parabolic movement upwards, which was followed by a period of sideways and boring notion before a slow grind upwards, ending with a new parabolic push.
Checking the fundamentals of the current market, we can see that Bakkt is going live within a week, which I’m not expecting to have an instant effect, but will be a gradually stronger effect over time -> potentially bringing bigger players to the market and liquidity.
Other than that we still got the potentials of an ETF coming up, the halving mid next year (some people think that this is priced in, but nah, don’t think that events are priced in 9 months before the actual event, as I don’t see media or anything write about it) and more and more stores are accepting Bitcoin as a payment solution.
Would that make you bearish? No, I’m macrowise not bearish. Also knowing that we might hit the 21 Weekly EMA for a test of support, which I’d find crucial, would make me macrowise insanely bullish on this asset.
But what about the descending triangle or symmetrical triangle? Well, if you use different timeframes, it’s also even hard to state that we’ve got a descending triangle here. You’ll have to use the wicks to create the descending triangle. Also, if you use the wicks on some exchanges on the bottom, you could conclude that there’s a symmetrical triangle. All noise and conclusions made for whatever people believe the pattern to be.
At this point I’m seeing that we’re still stuck inside this pattern and through which we’re creating lower volume and liquidity going towards the apex of the pattern. Traders will normally be waiting for a conclusion here before making a decision of the movements.
In that regards my main scenario is that we’re going to see another test on the south around $9,400-9,500 (there we’ve got the 21 EMA on the weekly at this point) to confirm that support, being followed by a slow grind upwards to $14,000 in the months there after. A full closed higher timeframe candle below $9,300-$9,000 would make me bearish and that would result in a failed test of the 21 Weekly EMA.
Funny enough, the Bakkt launch is around the apex of this triangle thingy, which could in the end be a small ‘sell the rumour, buy the news’ example in which the price bottoms out at the launch before starting to rally upwards, but that’s also just a ‘what if’ conclusion from me.
So pretty much summing up I’m expecting that we’re going to see another test around $9,400-9,500 before breaking out upwards, while the price is range-bound currently (in that sense we’ve to lose $10,000 as support before testing $9,400-9,500). Clearly breaking the downtrend line would be a bullish signal aiming for $13,500 back again.
Clearly losing the $9,200-9,400 area as support and that would cause a loss of the 21 Weekly EMA and bearish perspectives.
Interesting things coming up with potentially a huge volume move. Updates will follow.
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