BTC.Prj.2019.P03.E06.v3.BTC.Critical Points
Updated
After reviewing my initial post above, v2, I realized the picture didn't convey what my main message was, although it's in the text.
"If we break down the 9400, then we look at the 8900 to 8500. There is a chance this will break. Hence I'm going in about 30% of my fiat for going long at this range. Its possible it can break lower to the 7K range."
"The 8500 to 8900 is a real puzzle as many people have their eyes on it, not just for the CME gap.
Since everyone is looking at it, it has 50% chance that it will happen or get overshot or undershot.
A real psychological test. "
"DAILY Chart: (An idea only at this point) A possible downward wedge pattern, which can support the hypothesis for a big bounce at the 8500 to 8900 range.
However we need to see what happens in the next 3 or 5 days. "
I also should have mentioned
> The 0.618 fib retracement level
> The mean line for the fib. pitchfork channel
> Ascending slope line support
> Also pondering on the activities of recent, especially since the 18th of July, i'm starting to believe that people are becoming less reluctant to sell and the drops are getting less in magnitude.
Coupled with every tom, dick and harry looking at the CME futures gap level, I'm of the opinion that we have more than 50% chance that this target will not be reached.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
All these points make a good case for 8900 to be the bottom.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
This is just my opinion and I'm no expert or experienced trader, just a student who is learning along the way.
I like posting these thoughts as it assists me thinking through as to what I should be looking out for and help compile a plan.
DAILY CHART: fib. pitchfork channel with mean line
WEEKLY CHART: Key support and resistance lines (end of candle sticks)
"If we break down the 9400, then we look at the 8900 to 8500. There is a chance this will break. Hence I'm going in about 30% of my fiat for going long at this range. Its possible it can break lower to the 7K range."
"The 8500 to 8900 is a real puzzle as many people have their eyes on it, not just for the CME gap.
Since everyone is looking at it, it has 50% chance that it will happen or get overshot or undershot.
A real psychological test. "
"DAILY Chart: (An idea only at this point) A possible downward wedge pattern, which can support the hypothesis for a big bounce at the 8500 to 8900 range.
However we need to see what happens in the next 3 or 5 days. "
I also should have mentioned
> The 0.618 fib retracement level
> The mean line for the fib. pitchfork channel
> Ascending slope line support
> Also pondering on the activities of recent, especially since the 18th of July, i'm starting to believe that people are becoming less reluctant to sell and the drops are getting less in magnitude.
Coupled with every tom, dick and harry looking at the CME futures gap level, I'm of the opinion that we have more than 50% chance that this target will not be reached.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
All these points make a good case for 8900 to be the bottom.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
This is just my opinion and I'm no expert or experienced trader, just a student who is learning along the way.
I like posting these thoughts as it assists me thinking through as to what I should be looking out for and help compile a plan.
DAILY CHART: fib. pitchfork channel with mean line
WEEKLY CHART: Key support and resistance lines (end of candle sticks)
Note
Chart update only. Note the bounce off the sloping support. I don't think it will hold.The theory about a downward wedge is holding shape, so far.
Note
I'm keeping an eye out with the latest developments as the price seems to refuse to go down. It could be a last effort for a pump and dumb. However should not ignore the sloping support, it should be respected. My thoughts, if the daily or 4 hrly open and closes above 9950, then I will go in for a quick trade.Note
Note
This is also possible but I think its the above chart.Note
Observe the volume spike when smart money comes in.Note
Note
BTC has driven the bull market and the ALTs benefited. Now BTC is down trend, the ALTs also lose value. BTC dominance is dropping and possibly H&S in play. If you time it right, ALT vs BTC , ALTs will perform better on the bounces.Note
If BTC is close to the bottom, then we will experience NO H&S but a dip, something like this (Not my idea)Note
Note
For the record, we called out 2 scenarios, and it was one of them. FYI. Not my original idea as I lack the experience. I called it out based on a number of people I listen too.Note
I'm still looking for lower lows, as per the blue marking points. We need to see how things turn out at the 9K level. Eg. if there is a diveregence, volume, shaping (support structure). I will keep assuming the downward wedge until its broken.Note
Note
Looking at the Daily Chart, we see the 10 crossing the 50 EMA, another bearish sign.What catches my eye is the 100 EMA (blue MA). It will play a key indicator. Why?
If you look back in 2017, in the early stages of the bull or up trend, we have this line touched very few times and the price just fell below it for a short period, 2 weeks to 4 weeks before we got the golden cross (compared to the death cross). Also like everybody knows and its a good reminder here, the 21 EMA is still hanging above us so we should not go long for these two reasons. Having said that, I still have my eyes on the 8500 (CME futures gap) and 8900 for potentially going long...really depends on the indicators, bullish divergence, etc.)
Note
Interesting how big rejection occurred off the middle\mean line of the downward wedge. Lets see what happens here. More compelling why the 8900 (bottom of the weekly candle) might play a strong role.Trade closed: target reached
:)
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