BTC rising wedge, 11k & 14k scenarios
Updated
BTC now has a rising wedge that probably doesn't mean much at this point but nonetheless points to the potential of more sideways trading (b/c we're not at the top).
The more likely scenario will be a double bottom / dragon reversal that could touch the previous .618x (14.4k). This is more likely because the next date for xbt future settlement is quite far away, so the market wouldn't be scared of nothing.
Still, b/c the Chinese New Year (also Korean) is very close, we shouldn't expect much upswing at the moment. I would in fact bet that around mid-Feb there'll be a "tremendous" pump b/c the futures are fun not only in shorting bitcoin.
Right now, I sense that small investors are prepared for breakout, but the market makers are looking to have their holidays after making 1000x in the last year.
In sum, most likely -> 14k -> 12k -> more sideways -> 15k.
Btw, we're looking at a new market cycle now. I'd say we're at the end of Wave C.
The more likely scenario will be a double bottom / dragon reversal that could touch the previous .618x (14.4k). This is more likely because the next date for xbt future settlement is quite far away, so the market wouldn't be scared of nothing.
Still, b/c the Chinese New Year (also Korean) is very close, we shouldn't expect much upswing at the moment. I would in fact bet that around mid-Feb there'll be a "tremendous" pump b/c the futures are fun not only in shorting bitcoin.
Right now, I sense that small investors are prepared for breakout, but the market makers are looking to have their holidays after making 1000x in the last year.
In sum, most likely -> 14k -> 12k -> more sideways -> 15k.
Btw, we're looking at a new market cycle now. I'd say we're at the end of Wave C.
Note
appears that even this small wedge leads to a drop. perhaps we really have to wait for mid-Feb for bull marketNote
It seems we're not there yet. Even when there's no news coming out, the mill has been churning out oldies:coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-looking-heavy-news-turns-negative/
This suggests that we'll trade sideways for longer. It's indeed possible to have a crash under 10k.
When bad news have died out ---> reversal.
Note
my bad, shouldn't have ignored the rising wedge. more drops can still happen. it appears that the market isn't sure about bull until all the weak hands are out. it'll be interesting to see if 9500 will hold.
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