Long

Is BTC about to win the lottery?

Updated

In a bear market potential good news is like wining to lottery, or something like that. Could we hope that the forming falling wedge is going to push for a reversal in BTC? I noticed in some exchanges that some big money slowly are buying into this market, maybe in anticipation of the falling wedge. It could be the beginning of a re-bounce in BTC.
The volume is not yet there, but it can come any time, the RSI has plenty of space to move up. Do not forget we are still under 200MA which has a negative impact on any bullish movement. For now the market seems to be comfortable leaving under 200MA but for how long?
The possible targets are on the chart, this could happen in the next 2-3 days.
Wait for confirmation with strong volume after the break out before deciding to buy, otherwise it could be another fake out. Don't forget the confidence is still very low.
Happy trading!

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Additional reason for the current consolidation in hope for a reversal, bullish divergence.

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Trade closed: target reached

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Possible reversal of the falling wedge as I stated into my original post. We are closer to bounce for the D leg and make the E leg of the ABCDE triangle pattern and maybe we break higher. The target if we break is on the chart.

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Update: very nice swing to the upside, nice volume so far.

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Update: This market has slowed down for a moment which was expected, let's see if the price can find the strength to push higher.

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Here is a more in deep analysis of what I see happening. The last blue line from the chart corresponds to the last blue line from the RSI. I can see that although the price is lower the buy pressure has increased, that is why I drown the two green arrows up and down because apparently a bull flag in forming in there so we can have a push to the upside. On the other hand the ping line tell us something different so on a broader perspective we are heading lower or at least the buy has slowed down.
The other previous blue lines indicate a clear bull traps, if you are day trader you should have managed them accordingly either to sell your position or sell some of your positions weight.

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While posting previous TA, it bounces up. Look at then nice bounce.

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A lot of stuff going on right now. Here is my update. It got to my attention that some traders shorted BTC around 8600 and they expect the price to drop to 8k. Does it have any legs this story, don't know, personally I would short BTC if it breaks the trend line where the question mark is. I don't see any clear hidden divergence in current moves so is hard to say but overall the price is going down and one sign is the lower highs we are seeing which was expected and is depicted by the ping line from RSI and chart. Let's see how it goes.

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Update: Very nice swing high from the ascending triangle. To be honest I didn't expect that to happen but it is what it is and we need to respect that. The falling wedge still playing out, we are not very far from my target. Will see what is going to happen when we get there.

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Update: Could we get a second acceding triangle breaking to the upside?

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Update: On the daily time frame overall the BTC latest run looks spectacular, 4 green bars so far, but is this a sustainable growth? Looking at the volume it seems that for the past 2 days we have decreasing volume which is a sign of exhaustion. What I think is happening, the sellers steeped aside, leaving the buyers run out of stem and step back in once the volume has dry out. It happen before, was not to long ago when we rally up to 11400 and is going to happen again. How far up can we go?
One scenario could be that we pull back from 200MA which I would not be surprise, another scenario would be to rally towards the last bearish flag at around 10k and possible roll over.
Now the happy path would be to get increasing volume for the next days which would change the picture. To early to say that as of now. Will see how it goes.

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The BTC chart is developing a rising wedge and so far I see a lot of the typical signs for a rising wedge already present like prior up trend, the volume decreasing as explained on my previous post, we need to confirm the second resistance line I drown with the green box and pull back from it, what it remains is the break of the support line which should come if we continue to get lower volume and more sellers.

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Update: That was hell of a fight. We need to recognize that bulls are strong. I think that one reason could be people's fear that if the price stays too long under 200MA we are going to repeat the history from 2013 when BTC needed 2 years to recover. Maybe some wales don't want that either. I would say is not the case anymore, the market cap is much bigger and if buyers see an opportunity will jump in sooner as we can see how much money came back into the market.

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Update: Different perceptive with a rising channel breaking lower instead of rising wedge. This looks to me now more of the current situation.

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Update: Unfortunately we are going down again, it seems the bull finally run out of stem. How far can we go? we have support at 8600 to 8400, let's see if the down movement can be stopped somewhere around that range.

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Possible outcome in the next 24 hours: Head and shoulders with the right shoulder forming right now. If it does the target is on the chart. BTC likes to form a lot of head and shoulders as well as cup and handles. Interesting philology of people trading Bitcoin.

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Boom. The pattern has been confirmed, the price broke the trend line which defines you can call it head and shoulder or invert cup and handle. The expected target is on the chart.

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Update: potential symmetrical triangle playing out

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Two scenarios, everything on the chart. Short or long what is going to be? that is the question.

pgarret

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