#BTCUSD: Long term signal potentially valid...
Updated
Question is: do we get a crash together with stocks near EOY? Will 
BTCUSD decouple significantly and start outperforming tech stocks?
I suspect we might start to see inflation expectations increase substantially as economic activity resumes across the globe, people certainly are saturated with the whole COVID situation, and even scientists from the World Health Organization doubt the lock downs are a good solution for the pandemic, as economic damage caused by it vastly outsizes the human lives the pandemic itself would cost if restrictions were lifted.
I can smell a significant paradigm shift, if this takes place, where big ongoing trends would reverse, like the performance of value stocks compared to growth stocks, commodities vs stocks, interest rates trending down, and inflation being muted. An interesting trade to ride this juncture is to buy cryptocurrencies when viable. That said, this was an obvious trade many followed, but recent bouts of weakness likely shook most people out before the
PYPL news came out. I'm keen on seeing what the US launch brings forth, since the recent surge in prices has a lot to do with it (together with companies acquiring BITCOIN for their treasuries as a hedge for inflation should it manifest itself).
Tech stocks are a huge part of the S&P500 index price movement, and since the index suggests it is entering a decade long sideways bear market akin to 2000 to 2009, I would be hesitant to blindly buy and hold overvalued stocks in this environment. We do needBITCOIN to decouple from this if we expect a major trend, else it might be gridlocked in a constant sideways range for ages to come.
I'm open to substantial declines taking place after this strength fades, and specially ifPYPL's new feature disappoints like Bakkt futures initially did (Back then people were expecting Libra and Bakkt to generate tremendous interest and buying pressure in BITCOIN, which never happened and led to a long and brutal sideways bear market until March 2020).
This scenario is invalidated if we go below $9132.96-9049.54, else expect a relatively steady uptrend over the long haul.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCUSD decouple significantly and start outperforming tech stocks?I suspect we might start to see inflation expectations increase substantially as economic activity resumes across the globe, people certainly are saturated with the whole COVID situation, and even scientists from the World Health Organization doubt the lock downs are a good solution for the pandemic, as economic damage caused by it vastly outsizes the human lives the pandemic itself would cost if restrictions were lifted.
I can smell a significant paradigm shift, if this takes place, where big ongoing trends would reverse, like the performance of value stocks compared to growth stocks, commodities vs stocks, interest rates trending down, and inflation being muted. An interesting trade to ride this juncture is to buy cryptocurrencies when viable. That said, this was an obvious trade many followed, but recent bouts of weakness likely shook most people out before the
PYPL news came out. I'm keen on seeing what the US launch brings forth, since the recent surge in prices has a lot to do with it (together with companies acquiring BITCOIN for their treasuries as a hedge for inflation should it manifest itself).Tech stocks are a huge part of the S&P500 index price movement, and since the index suggests it is entering a decade long sideways bear market akin to 2000 to 2009, I would be hesitant to blindly buy and hold overvalued stocks in this environment. We do need
BITCOIN to decouple from this if we expect a major trend, else it might be gridlocked in a constant sideways range for ages to come.I'm open to substantial declines taking place after this strength fades, and specially if
PYPL's new feature disappoints like Bakkt futures initially did (Back then people were expecting Libra and Bakkt to generate tremendous interest and buying pressure in BITCOIN, which never happened and led to a long and brutal sideways bear market until March 2020).This scenario is invalidated if we go below $9132.96-9049.54, else expect a relatively steady uptrend over the long haul.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Note
Note
The last daily signal failed here, the stock market rout is affecting #BTC it seems. This long term forecast might be valid still, but perhaps we go for a correction or consolidation here for a few days. Weekly trend should go higher, else we might remain range bound (target was 14430 within a few weeks). The long term signal is invalid if below 9132 zone.Note
Good action so far, it was hard to hold on to it but we are doing very well here, getting more and more confirmation of a long term trend, with sentiment being a massive wall of worry all the way up into a new ATH soon. I'd buy any dips going forward.
Note
I think we likely go higher here before retracing judging by technicals and sentiment. We have excellent news from
PYPL, demand is impressive, yet somehow most people either already sold, are scared, expect a drop under 14k to buy/buy back, or call for a top now. Clearly, long term bullish Wall of Worry from hell effect.Note
Note
Looks like we already peaked and will go sideways here: Note
Note
Back to sideways thesis: Note
Seems like correction is over: At least the downside is, now will likely move higher then gyrate sideways for a while until it is accumulated enough to trend.
Note
Long term target #1 hit, #2 comes next, probably way before May 2022.We could go even higher if it hits target #2 faster than ETA.
Trade closed manually
There's a chance the market topped long term...Will monitor closely.Hedged a bit higher.
Note
Judging by the move after my last update, I'd say it topped for good.
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