Bitcoin Consolidates, With Ultimate Bull Market Test Ahead!
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! Looking at the daily chart, you can see that I still have the exact arrows on the chart that I published when BTC was trading near the blue circle. At the time, I showed how the NVT had printed a bullish crossover and that BTC was poised for a rally. I also thought that BTC would fall back down to the 50 EMA (in orange) and then potentially hold the 50 EMA and rally for a retest of the 13800 level.
Thus far, we saw that play out almost perfectly. BTC rallied up from the original post (blue circle) turned back down to the 50 EMA, but then broke down below it. Lately, BTC has been crossing above and below the 50 EMA, in a way that isn't really showing us conclusive support or resistance there. However, the BTC battle isn't TRULY at the 50 EMA right now — It's at the rising teal 150 EMA, which is equivalent to the 21 week EMA.
The real reason why I believe that BTC hasn't vacated the area yet, is because we haven't tested the 21 week EMA (in teal.) In my view, that is extremely critical support for BTC right now. I say that because BTC held the 21 week EMA on every single test during the early stages of the last bull market. Because of that, the 21 week EMA support was a key indication that BTC was entering a sustainable long-term bull market. Remember, BTC rallied around 150%, from the 2015 bear market bottom, before it ever tested the 21 week EMA. So, just because we have rallied 340% from the bottom of the bear market, does not necessarily mean that this is a long-term multi year bull market. BTC could fail to hold that support just as easy as it could moon right off of it. I'm not the only one who realizes that, and I think the market is widely waiting to see how BTC can respond to that moving average. What is certain, is that BTC is showing remarkable resilience here. Instead of completely collapsing as it did from prior major peaks, BTC has been mostly consolidating between 9100 and 12000ish. With that said, I think BTC could continue to consolidate, while the 21 week EMA rises up to it. Then, perhaps that is when we will see a continuation in the bull market.
On a side note, if BTC fails to hold the 21 week EMA, or confirms it as resistance, I think we could see a major fall, possibly to a level below the 3150 low of the bear market. With that said, I think the highest probability is that BTC is in a massive sustainable multi year bull market, and that we are going much much higher. However, BTC still needs to pass the 21 week EMA test, just like it did in the early stages of the 2015-2017 bull market.
#PoopLovesYou
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Thus far, we saw that play out almost perfectly. BTC rallied up from the original post (blue circle) turned back down to the 50 EMA, but then broke down below it. Lately, BTC has been crossing above and below the 50 EMA, in a way that isn't really showing us conclusive support or resistance there. However, the BTC battle isn't TRULY at the 50 EMA right now — It's at the rising teal 150 EMA, which is equivalent to the 21 week EMA.
The real reason why I believe that BTC hasn't vacated the area yet, is because we haven't tested the 21 week EMA (in teal.) In my view, that is extremely critical support for BTC right now. I say that because BTC held the 21 week EMA on every single test during the early stages of the last bull market. Because of that, the 21 week EMA support was a key indication that BTC was entering a sustainable long-term bull market. Remember, BTC rallied around 150%, from the 2015 bear market bottom, before it ever tested the 21 week EMA. So, just because we have rallied 340% from the bottom of the bear market, does not necessarily mean that this is a long-term multi year bull market. BTC could fail to hold that support just as easy as it could moon right off of it. I'm not the only one who realizes that, and I think the market is widely waiting to see how BTC can respond to that moving average. What is certain, is that BTC is showing remarkable resilience here. Instead of completely collapsing as it did from prior major peaks, BTC has been mostly consolidating between 9100 and 12000ish. With that said, I think BTC could continue to consolidate, while the 21 week EMA rises up to it. Then, perhaps that is when we will see a continuation in the bull market.
On a side note, if BTC fails to hold the 21 week EMA, or confirms it as resistance, I think we could see a major fall, possibly to a level below the 3150 low of the bear market. With that said, I think the highest probability is that BTC is in a massive sustainable multi year bull market, and that we are going much much higher. However, BTC still needs to pass the 21 week EMA test, just like it did in the early stages of the 2015-2017 bull market.
#PoopLovesYou
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.