Elliot Wave analysis shows that BTC is in an impulsive bearish move of C wave of weekly ABC correction. I think 20kish bottom from a technical perspective has a higher probability, but the current economic environment especially in the US does not incline into that option.
The newest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report of May 2022 that just released yesterday is not a good news. US Inflation keeps on rising at 8.6%, the highest since 41 years of US economic history. U.S Dollar will be force to be taken from the market circulation by raising interest rates. Economic recession is inevitable and could kill significant amount of businesses, lowering people purchasing power, and forcing them to only allocate money for primary needs spending.
Don't know how much is enough in raising interest rates in order to control inflation without hurting too much on the economy.
In this kind of economic condition, there is a significant probability that BTC could fall to 12k level, although I do not inclined into it, but let see what the market provide us in the near future.