BitcoinShort
BTC is RED RED BEAR BEAR
Updated
The famous "triangle" many traders talk about. I'll be short and straight with my analysis.
1-Market is bear, it's been for quiet a long time now.
2-The blue descending trendline has behaved very nice on the last swings
3- The descending BLACK triangle I've plotted broke downwards. Keep in mind point (1)
4- I used keltner channels to show that the strong move was coming (unkhown direction) + volume breakout to show the strong movement downwards.
5-Important next level support is the orange rectangle.
According to these 5 points I've made, I'll now procede to analyze further.
There are many patterns according to my five indications that this market will continue to search for lower lows. However, usually after a chart pattern like this does it's move (descending triangle downward breakout) the market pulls back some (59% of the time for stocks,- The Encyclopedia of chart patterns) and keeps the direction until the minimum chart pattern target(93% chance of success) (3082 USD aprox, orange line inside the support area).
Two more considerations before finishing my analysis. One, Fibb level 1.618 is very close to the current price at this time (4288 USD), which is a very important level. Second is that you should have realized also that the level 2 of Fibb is inside the support area and very close to the minimum target of the triangle.
Conclusion of what I'm doing.
Waiting for the pull back, see if the market breaks above maximum high expected (Upper orange line) or second level ( Blue trend line ). If this happens, we'd wait for couple more signals before going long. In the other scenario we'd expect a clear price decline after reaching the two sections previously mentioned, this would mean a probable downward price continuation to the price zone I mentioned in the previous parragraphs.
Note: The statistics I've used are for reference only and were obtained from stocks. They've been taken from The Encyclopedia of chart patterns 2nd edition, Thomas N. Bulkowski.
Good luck and If you liked this analysis please give me a like, it'll be much appreciated !!
1-Market is bear, it's been for quiet a long time now.
2-The blue descending trendline has behaved very nice on the last swings
3- The descending BLACK triangle I've plotted broke downwards. Keep in mind point (1)
4- I used keltner channels to show that the strong move was coming (unkhown direction) + volume breakout to show the strong movement downwards.
5-Important next level support is the orange rectangle.
According to these 5 points I've made, I'll now procede to analyze further.
There are many patterns according to my five indications that this market will continue to search for lower lows. However, usually after a chart pattern like this does it's move (descending triangle downward breakout) the market pulls back some (59% of the time for stocks,- The Encyclopedia of chart patterns) and keeps the direction until the minimum chart pattern target(93% chance of success) (3082 USD aprox, orange line inside the support area).
Two more considerations before finishing my analysis. One, Fibb level 1.618 is very close to the current price at this time (4288 USD), which is a very important level. Second is that you should have realized also that the level 2 of Fibb is inside the support area and very close to the minimum target of the triangle.
Conclusion of what I'm doing.
Waiting for the pull back, see if the market breaks above maximum high expected (Upper orange line) or second level ( Blue trend line ). If this happens, we'd wait for couple more signals before going long. In the other scenario we'd expect a clear price decline after reaching the two sections previously mentioned, this would mean a probable downward price continuation to the price zone I mentioned in the previous parragraphs.
Note: The statistics I've used are for reference only and were obtained from stocks. They've been taken from The Encyclopedia of chart patterns 2nd edition, Thomas N. Bulkowski.
Good luck and If you liked this analysis please give me a like, it'll be much appreciated !!
Note
First notification of next bear move was the 1h black neutral triangle downward breakout. BTC on it's way to support area, the scenario of pullback I had visualized didn't materialize. I'll keep posting updates every important movement tradingview.com/chart/ugGNshb9/
Note
I apologize for the previous link. This is the correct one.Note
Let's wait for the next price swing, once price closes above the orange line, it will likely search for the red line. Note
Looking at the previous image we can see that it's likely a next move in the downward direction (Still following initial bearish target). However, let's wait for the market to do it's move to for us to operate accordingly.Note
Check out this analysis for short term 
Note
Partially bullish, Check out my other BTCUSD post !
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