Unprecedented Bitcoin Pre-Halving Bull Run!🐂🚨
Updated
On the four-hour it looks like a textbook cup and handle has formed which has already began to play out. Its likely we a see a slight dip and test old resistance at 44k, turn it to support and continue to blast off past $48,000!
Now short time frame analysis is all good and fun bit I think at this point we have to consider an unprecedented event that seems to be playing out in real time. Bitcoin is entering or has already entered a bull market in 2024... before the halving in April. To be clear we have never seen this before. Historically we see a decent pull back leading up to the halving, a few months of consolidation and then finally a blast off to new highs. In 2024 I think the price action will be different and here are some reason why.
1. Every small dip is quickly eaten up with new buys and ETF accumulation, for example the ETF "sell the news" event was barely -20% and returned to new highs less than a month later
2. Bitcoin has never been so accessible to larger inflows of money, again ETF related
3. Its an election year, which historically is very bullish as each party in the USA want to make the economy look good and then claim it was them who did it, in turn being reelected or elected
4. The FED is pivoting, we can not only expect Powell to cease raising rates but he hinted at lowering rates not this quarter, but Q3.
5. Market makers are informed about the halving as well as retail investors. With so many players understanding the DNA of Bitcoin who would sell at this point? Large firms like Blackrock understand the halving fundamentally will increase the price of Bitcoin by cutting supply in half. They also have no need or interest in making short term smaller gains when they have the full ability to wait this out and reap the benefits of the first institutional Bitcoin bull run.
6. The S&P 500 just his a new ALL TIME HIGH of $5,029.30. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets are correlated with the stock market. As long as the market keeps doing well which is likely for some of the same reasons stated above Bitcoin will continue to increase with it.
For these 6 reasons I believe we have the perfect storm, a white swan event, for Bitcoin to enter a bull market like never before and increase in price leading up to a halving instead of a harsh retracement in the past. Don't trade against the trend and the trend has without a doubt been up since last year $15,000 -> $49,000 ~200% increase.
Now short time frame analysis is all good and fun bit I think at this point we have to consider an unprecedented event that seems to be playing out in real time. Bitcoin is entering or has already entered a bull market in 2024... before the halving in April. To be clear we have never seen this before. Historically we see a decent pull back leading up to the halving, a few months of consolidation and then finally a blast off to new highs. In 2024 I think the price action will be different and here are some reason why.
1. Every small dip is quickly eaten up with new buys and ETF accumulation, for example the ETF "sell the news" event was barely -20% and returned to new highs less than a month later
2. Bitcoin has never been so accessible to larger inflows of money, again ETF related
3. Its an election year, which historically is very bullish as each party in the USA want to make the economy look good and then claim it was them who did it, in turn being reelected or elected
4. The FED is pivoting, we can not only expect Powell to cease raising rates but he hinted at lowering rates not this quarter, but Q3.
5. Market makers are informed about the halving as well as retail investors. With so many players understanding the DNA of Bitcoin who would sell at this point? Large firms like Blackrock understand the halving fundamentally will increase the price of Bitcoin by cutting supply in half. They also have no need or interest in making short term smaller gains when they have the full ability to wait this out and reap the benefits of the first institutional Bitcoin bull run.
6. The S&P 500 just his a new ALL TIME HIGH of $5,029.30. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets are correlated with the stock market. As long as the market keeps doing well which is likely for some of the same reasons stated above Bitcoin will continue to increase with it.
For these 6 reasons I believe we have the perfect storm, a white swan event, for Bitcoin to enter a bull market like never before and increase in price leading up to a halving instead of a harsh retracement in the past. Don't trade against the trend and the trend has without a doubt been up since last year $15,000 -> $49,000 ~200% increase.
Note
Following up price absolutely busted upwards to 52k without having to retest the trend line for now. Huge win for the bulls. Still holding for the same reasons I have stated above I think it would be foolish to sell now and the true bust has just started.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.