BTC Reaction at Re-Distribution Trading Range Upper Bound
Updated
The BTC price continues to be observed within a Wyckoff re-distribution trading range (to be confirmed or to fail) with the upper bound given by the automatic rally (ARa) daily high and the lower bound given by the selling climax (SC) daily low.
The secondary test (ST) on July 3 had a Spring-like effect, catalyzing a very nice rally (+19%) that wicked above the trading range upper bound. I expect the BTC price to test the point of control (POC) around $20,472. Let’s see how the BTC price reacts at the POC (e.g., Will it fall through the POC support or reverse direction?).
With regard to the Phoenix Ascending (PA) indicator (lower panel), upward momentum (Energy, grey) is diminishing. We will be observing downward momentum soon. The blue line at level 70 will provide support for the BTC price. Given the levels and likely trajectories of the blue and red lines, a steady, step-wise move down (similar to the reaction from June 26 through July 3) seems likely.
Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (ARa), selling climax (SC), secondary test (ST), upthrust (UT), upthrust after distribution (UDAT), preliminary supply (PS), failed upthrust (FUT), last point of supply (LPSY), shakeout (SO), sign of weakness (SOW), Phase A (Ph A), Phase B (Ph B), Phase C (Ph C), Phase D (Ph D), Phase E (Ph E).
This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
The secondary test (ST) on July 3 had a Spring-like effect, catalyzing a very nice rally (+19%) that wicked above the trading range upper bound. I expect the BTC price to test the point of control (POC) around $20,472. Let’s see how the BTC price reacts at the POC (e.g., Will it fall through the POC support or reverse direction?).
With regard to the Phoenix Ascending (PA) indicator (lower panel), upward momentum (Energy, grey) is diminishing. We will be observing downward momentum soon. The blue line at level 70 will provide support for the BTC price. Given the levels and likely trajectories of the blue and red lines, a steady, step-wise move down (similar to the reaction from June 26 through July 3) seems likely.
Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (ARa), selling climax (SC), secondary test (ST), upthrust (UT), upthrust after distribution (UDAT), preliminary supply (PS), failed upthrust (FUT), last point of supply (LPSY), shakeout (SO), sign of weakness (SOW), Phase A (Ph A), Phase B (Ph B), Phase C (Ph C), Phase D (Ph D), Phase E (Ph E).
This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
Note
This chart includes the Bad Ass Bollinger Bands (BA BBs) and excludes the fixed range volume profile (FRVP). There is confluence between the two indicators. With regard to a short position, the first target provided by the BA BBs is around $20,545 and the second target is around $19,780.Note
Currently, although the momentum (Energy, grey filled area, grey dotted lines) is starting to diminish, the red, blue, and green lines are pointing decidedly downward. Thus, regardless of when/where you entered the short position, the short position should still be open. The short position should remain open until the red and blue reach their lowest values in this cycle (July 10, 10 pm CST, approximately) preferably when the green is at its lowest value and has flattened out (i.e., moving sideways). That is the time to take profit and/or open a long position. The long position should remain open until the blue and red have reached their highest values in this cycle and the green is at its highest value and has flattened out. That is the time to close the long position and/or open a short position. Although I trade based on an analysis of many time frames, I ALWAYS monitor the 3H time frame. Not financial advice.
Trade active
For my short position, target 1 at $20,472 has been hit. My SL has been moved past the entry price. Let's see if target 2 at $19,780 gets hit.Note
Target #2 at $19,780 was hit. I opened the position at $21,403 with 3x leverage so this has been a nice, profitable trade.
Target #3 is $18,677, which is between the lower aqua and lower orange BA BBs (approximately the midway point) and corresponds to the low of the ST on July 3. I moved my SL to $19,700 to lock in my profits. Let's see if target #3 gets hit.
Trade closed manually
Trade closed at $19,386 to lock in profits.
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