Possible Break of Structure
Updated
BTCUSD has exited the structure that has been able to be modeled by the continuous-time markov chain, which I have been updating as it made its way through the stochastic paths between transition states the past few weeks.
What this means from here
- should retest the boundaries of the markov grid (~28632.10 is the lower boundry) that materialized over its time in consolidation. If it gets back into the grid, it may or may not maintain the mechanics of the stochastic process. I'd expect volatility to increase from here in either scenario.
- If fails to re-enter here, could follow the channel down (solid blue lines on chart) - this channel formed prior to exit of markov grid and provided an exit path out of boundaries. If it follows this channel pay attention to price action around the channels support and resistance. A break out of channel could give it another opportunity to try and re-enter the markov grid; a break down from channel and I think it gets hit to 22k.
*** There is now more near-term risk than reward here. If breakdown further = sharp downside. If breaks back up could either get trapped back in consolidation OR whipsaw to the upside and attempt breakout of the markov grid (only 1 of 2 of the bullish possibility is motivating to be long, and the bullish possibility has lower probability of occuring than the bearish possibility)... you see what I'm saying here?
What this means from here
- should retest the boundaries of the markov grid (~28632.10 is the lower boundry) that materialized over its time in consolidation. If it gets back into the grid, it may or may not maintain the mechanics of the stochastic process. I'd expect volatility to increase from here in either scenario.
- If fails to re-enter here, could follow the channel down (solid blue lines on chart) - this channel formed prior to exit of markov grid and provided an exit path out of boundaries. If it follows this channel pay attention to price action around the channels support and resistance. A break out of channel could give it another opportunity to try and re-enter the markov grid; a break down from channel and I think it gets hit to 22k.
*** There is now more near-term risk than reward here. If breakdown further = sharp downside. If breaks back up could either get trapped back in consolidation OR whipsaw to the upside and attempt breakout of the markov grid (only 1 of 2 of the bullish possibility is motivating to be long, and the bullish possibility has lower probability of occuring than the bearish possibility)... you see what I'm saying here?
Note
Now it looks like a game of shoots & ladders... hahNote
The only main level of support that I see between here (25474, 10:54 pm 6/12/2022) and 22k is ~ 24124 - 24442.
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