First lets talk about on-chain: macro on-chain shows continued signs of accumulation. Supply continues to drop at a brisk pace and netflows are predominantly bullish. We are in the third round of strong accumulation since July. This is in contrast with the recent price action which is muted with a bullish sentiment. Key levels are marked.
In the past 24 hours price rallied twice to $59.1k in the past 24 hours, and swiftly rejected both times. This resistance level follows the macro channel that Bitcoin is trading in from the mid-October peak.
For Bulls: they are fighting a confluence of resistance immediately overhead. Bulls need to recover the 12h 20 EMA ($57.1k) for a short term win they can build a base of support from, and they need to close a daily over $59.1k to rally for a bullish reversal that can tackle the major resistance between $59k-$60k. Locally we also have a confluence of support levels between $56k-57k that might support the current price that can also posture bulls for a rally, but below there begins our bearish scenario.
For Bears: Bears need to drive price below $56k, and each level below is more bearish. The bottom of the local value range extends from $53.8k-54.8k and a decisive close under that risks falling into the bull market support of the the 20/21w MAs.
!Important Note! I am also watching the 20w SMA and 21w EMA, with them beginning to constrict, and if they invert thats a very strong macro market indicator that price will post a more significant drop with the possibility of a period of bear market conditions as we look for a floor.
Big Papi Comments: Based on the on-chain data I believe we are macro bullish but short term price action is to shake out greed to posture us for the next leg up. Open Interest finally began to fall off a little after posting a new high (higher than Feb>April) but is still stubbornly high and at levels only seen briefly in April at peak bull mania. I believe if we can't shake off more leveraged moonboys, we'll see more downside. It is a good sign that miners and longeterm holders continue to HODL, indicating that they expect more upside, or at least this isn't a highly profitable range to profit from, which for now removes them from the equation as potential selling pressure.
In the past 24 hours price rallied twice to $59.1k in the past 24 hours, and swiftly rejected both times. This resistance level follows the macro channel that Bitcoin is trading in from the mid-October peak.
For Bulls: they are fighting a confluence of resistance immediately overhead. Bulls need to recover the 12h 20 EMA ($57.1k) for a short term win they can build a base of support from, and they need to close a daily over $59.1k to rally for a bullish reversal that can tackle the major resistance between $59k-$60k. Locally we also have a confluence of support levels between $56k-57k that might support the current price that can also posture bulls for a rally, but below there begins our bearish scenario.
For Bears: Bears need to drive price below $56k, and each level below is more bearish. The bottom of the local value range extends from $53.8k-54.8k and a decisive close under that risks falling into the bull market support of the the 20/21w MAs.
!Important Note! I am also watching the 20w SMA and 21w EMA, with them beginning to constrict, and if they invert thats a very strong macro market indicator that price will post a more significant drop with the possibility of a period of bear market conditions as we look for a floor.
Big Papi Comments: Based on the on-chain data I believe we are macro bullish but short term price action is to shake out greed to posture us for the next leg up. Open Interest finally began to fall off a little after posting a new high (higher than Feb>April) but is still stubbornly high and at levels only seen briefly in April at peak bull mania. I believe if we can't shake off more leveraged moonboys, we'll see more downside. It is a good sign that miners and longeterm holders continue to HODL, indicating that they expect more upside, or at least this isn't a highly profitable range to profit from, which for now removes them from the equation as potential selling pressure.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.