Do Not Assume BTC is in A Bear Markt
If you sold BTC in the 50-65K region you did great. Pat yourself on the back and look to the future. If you did not sell your bitcoin in that region or would be selling at a loss there is plenty of evidence that selling now may not be a wise decision. Is there a chance you might be able to buy back lower? Sure, especially if you pay attention to short time frame candles. But there is also a chance that this bull is not market over and that if you sell now without paying attention the market will run away from you.
Taking a look at the above chart you can see that in subsequent bull runs the volume at the peak or near the peak of the bull run increased dramatically over the volume at halving and dwarfed the volume leading up to it. Currently we have the opposite trend, the volume has tapered off. We are at a trough with diminishing volume rather than at a peak with accelerating volume. To assume we are at the end of the bull run now would be taking a "this time is different approach." If volume picks up while the downtrend continues to lower lows this would validate we may be in a bear market. If 30K holds while volume diminishes I would be inclined to consider this a consolidation before highers highs.
Taking a look at the Gann boxes and halving cycles; we can see that the time span from halving to peak is increasing across cycles. The Gann box overlaid over the present time is a copy of the box from the 2017 cycle; notice that this past peak at 50-65K happened far sooner in relation to the last cycle and instead concurs with a pullback period of the 2017 cycle.
So in relation to the previous bull runs, if 50-65K were to be the peak both the volume and time trends are dramatically different. To think that 50-65K was the peak would be to take a "this time is different approach."
It is true that this pullback has taken us all the way to the 50 week MA; but the exact MA at which support was found was not consistent between bull cycles, while the volume and time trends were. In fact in relation to the price at halving the price increased faster this time around than in 2017, which would indicate we should see a larger pullback on the way up than in 2017.
Taking a look at the above chart you can see that in subsequent bull runs the volume at the peak or near the peak of the bull run increased dramatically over the volume at halving and dwarfed the volume leading up to it. Currently we have the opposite trend, the volume has tapered off. We are at a trough with diminishing volume rather than at a peak with accelerating volume. To assume we are at the end of the bull run now would be taking a "this time is different approach." If volume picks up while the downtrend continues to lower lows this would validate we may be in a bear market. If 30K holds while volume diminishes I would be inclined to consider this a consolidation before highers highs.
Taking a look at the Gann boxes and halving cycles; we can see that the time span from halving to peak is increasing across cycles. The Gann box overlaid over the present time is a copy of the box from the 2017 cycle; notice that this past peak at 50-65K happened far sooner in relation to the last cycle and instead concurs with a pullback period of the 2017 cycle.
So in relation to the previous bull runs, if 50-65K were to be the peak both the volume and time trends are dramatically different. To think that 50-65K was the peak would be to take a "this time is different approach."
It is true that this pullback has taken us all the way to the 50 week MA; but the exact MA at which support was found was not consistent between bull cycles, while the volume and time trends were. In fact in relation to the price at halving the price increased faster this time around than in 2017, which would indicate we should see a larger pullback on the way up than in 2017.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.