Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart & Historic Bottom Analy
Updated
This post looks at the following items to assess BTC possible upcoming cycle accumulation ranges, next cycle bottom and historic lowest price possible:
* Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] & CBI Extensions [See Red and Green MAs (Moving Averages), doted and dash respectively]
* Log Chart key support and resistance levels [Thick Black Parallel Lines]
* 200W SMA (Simple Moving Average) Historic Cycle Bottom Support [Navy Blue Line]
* Historic Cycle Accumulation Zone [Between the 150W (Blak/Gray Line) and 200W SMA (Navy Blue Line)]
* 300W SMA Historic BLACK SWAN event under evaluation support [Violet Line]
The premise considered in this post is BTC is currently in the Bear Market phase of a new cycle and is approaching a new cycle bottom and accumulation range.
CYCLE BOTTOM INDICATOR [CBI]
As per prior posts. The extension dashed lines extrapolated out in this chart at this point of time estimate a cycle bottom may be put in around August 2022 (based on current moving average inputs).
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/PumIN3rB-Cycle-Bottom-Indicator-CBI-First-Live-Test-Approaching/
GOLDEN BOX
As per discussions regarding the 150W and 200W SMA, the potential upcoming golden box represents the price and time we might spend in a cycle accumulation range (based on prior historic price behavior). Historically the 200W SMA has resembled a key line of defense for the bulls where buyers has stepped in during the darkest days in Crypto to defend price. The bouncing nature of price between the 150W and 200W SMA suggests this in the past this is a range 'Smart Money' has targeted for cycle accumulation when believed BTC has been sufficiently oversold and is undervalued. Prior Cycle Golden Box has been drawn for comparison reference.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3vbTelXR-Bitcoin-Cycle-Accumulation-Zones-150W-200W-SMA/
GREEN BOX
The 300W SMA resembles the worst case under evaluation support SMA reached during an extreme 'Black Swan' event (unexpected event which causes wide spread panic selling in the market). The as drawn potential upcoming Green Box between the 200W SMA and the 300W SMA represent the time and price ranges we may experience in the drawn scenario (not historically we have not spent much time in the Green Box and the COVID event is the first time we have reached these levels of undervaluation to date). NOTE: Prior Cycle Green Box has been drawn for comparison reference.
LOG CHART
The above Worst Case Analysis is combined with some simple TA and Key Historic Support levels on the Log Chart. The worst case Cycle Bottom shown on the chart price levels assumes the current trend direction and uses measured moves which align with key long chart support / resistance levels and potentially the 300W SMA (Violet line).
* Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] & CBI Extensions [See Red and Green MAs (Moving Averages), doted and dash respectively]
* Log Chart key support and resistance levels [Thick Black Parallel Lines]
* 200W SMA (Simple Moving Average) Historic Cycle Bottom Support [Navy Blue Line]
* Historic Cycle Accumulation Zone [Between the 150W (Blak/Gray Line) and 200W SMA (Navy Blue Line)]
* 300W SMA Historic BLACK SWAN event under evaluation support [Violet Line]
The premise considered in this post is BTC is currently in the Bear Market phase of a new cycle and is approaching a new cycle bottom and accumulation range.
CYCLE BOTTOM INDICATOR [CBI]
As per prior posts. The extension dashed lines extrapolated out in this chart at this point of time estimate a cycle bottom may be put in around August 2022 (based on current moving average inputs).
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/PumIN3rB-Cycle-Bottom-Indicator-CBI-First-Live-Test-Approaching/
GOLDEN BOX
As per discussions regarding the 150W and 200W SMA, the potential upcoming golden box represents the price and time we might spend in a cycle accumulation range (based on prior historic price behavior). Historically the 200W SMA has resembled a key line of defense for the bulls where buyers has stepped in during the darkest days in Crypto to defend price. The bouncing nature of price between the 150W and 200W SMA suggests this in the past this is a range 'Smart Money' has targeted for cycle accumulation when believed BTC has been sufficiently oversold and is undervalued. Prior Cycle Golden Box has been drawn for comparison reference.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3vbTelXR-Bitcoin-Cycle-Accumulation-Zones-150W-200W-SMA/
GREEN BOX
The 300W SMA resembles the worst case under evaluation support SMA reached during an extreme 'Black Swan' event (unexpected event which causes wide spread panic selling in the market). The as drawn potential upcoming Green Box between the 200W SMA and the 300W SMA represent the time and price ranges we may experience in the drawn scenario (not historically we have not spent much time in the Green Box and the COVID event is the first time we have reached these levels of undervaluation to date). NOTE: Prior Cycle Green Box has been drawn for comparison reference.
LOG CHART
The above Worst Case Analysis is combined with some simple TA and Key Historic Support levels on the Log Chart. The worst case Cycle Bottom shown on the chart price levels assumes the current trend direction and uses measured moves which align with key long chart support / resistance levels and potentially the 300W SMA (Violet line).
Note
Supporting Chart showing the above analysis on the Weekly Time Frame (TF) to be considered with respect with the above posts.![Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - [Weekly View UPDATE]](https://s3.tradingview.com/v/v6dTPDzw_mid.png)
Note
Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart [UPDATE 02]![Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart [UPDATE 02]](https://s3.tradingview.com/4/4dIsoEUe_mid.png)
Note
Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart [UPDATE 03 - FED 0.75%]![Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart [UPDATE 03 - FED 0.75%]](https://s3.tradingview.com/p/PragSxLa_mid.png)
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.