Is bitcoin heading towards another cliff??
Good day Traders
Bitcoin had a strong short squeeze and break out from that falling wedge, albeit earlier than I expected. On reflection, this current consolidation range ($3200 - $4200), seems to be playing out in a similar pattern to the $6000 - $7400 consolidation range, which we had right before our main drop from our 6k support. The short squeeze we had yesterday is very similar to the squeeze we had on 15 October 2018. There seems to be a similar triangle playing out, also with gradual uptrend support. Our DMA50 is acting as strong resistance yet again, and our DMA100 is starting to converge with our DMA50, which should provide additional resistance when they bundle up closer to the triangle apex, as it was in the prior consolidation range before the drop from 6k.
This can be illustrated by the pitchfork starting from our ATH and connecting the 2 main pivots before the main drop at the end of 2018. By adding an additional parallel channel, you can see that we're slowly approaching the exact same outer channel resistance as we did in November 2018, before the crash. We seem to be heading for the same type of triangle and DMA50/DMA100 resistance, and volume has been following a similar valley-type build up of momentum leading up to the surge yesterday.
If the same pattern plays out, we should drop back to our triangle support after being rejected by our DMA50/DMA100 and we should breakdown from triangle support as we approach the apex around 20 Feb 2019. This time, however, we still have our weekly SMA200 support to contend with, and this I believe to be the difference between us bottoming now or lower, although I suspect that the WMA200 might not hold this time, just as the iron clad 6k support wasn't able to hold as everyone had expected.
Interestingly, in 2018 the wave down from the previous swing high to our triangle support (24 July 2018), had close to a 68.1 fib retracement afterwards, which gave us a 127.2 fib extension target when we dropped to $5188, before briefly consolidating, and continuing the drop from there to the 161.8 fib support of that wave down, before dropping further and finding our annual low right at the median line of our pitchfork.
The prior main wave from our $9948 swing high in May 2018 to our 24 June swing low (before the start of the triangle uptrend), had a 61.8 fib retracement afterwards, and the 132.8 - 168.1 fib extension of that wave basically set the consolidation range which we are currently in ($3200 - $4200). The 168.1 fib extension of this move coincided with our annual low for 2018.
If you apply the same Fibonacci levels to our current consolidation range, you'll see that after dropping from our triangle support, we should first drop to the next pitchfork channel support, and a 127.2 fib extension target of $2780, where we will probably have brief consolidation, like we did around $5500, before dropping to the 161.8 fib support of that move ($2334), before again finding our pitchfork median support, and finally reaching our next consolidation range, between $1560 - $2160 (138.2 - 168.1 fib extension of the previous wave down), and a new annual low somewhere around 2k.
Looking at our ADX/DI indicator, you can see we had similar trend strength and direction that we had around 6k, and we are fast approaching the same RSI resistance as we had at the 6k drop so for anyone trying to find out if our bottom is already in, this might be your answer but then again, who knows.
Good luck and happy trading!
The "already bottomed" argument:
The more pain bearish bottom argument:
Bitcoin had a strong short squeeze and break out from that falling wedge, albeit earlier than I expected. On reflection, this current consolidation range ($3200 - $4200), seems to be playing out in a similar pattern to the $6000 - $7400 consolidation range, which we had right before our main drop from our 6k support. The short squeeze we had yesterday is very similar to the squeeze we had on 15 October 2018. There seems to be a similar triangle playing out, also with gradual uptrend support. Our DMA50 is acting as strong resistance yet again, and our DMA100 is starting to converge with our DMA50, which should provide additional resistance when they bundle up closer to the triangle apex, as it was in the prior consolidation range before the drop from 6k.
This can be illustrated by the pitchfork starting from our ATH and connecting the 2 main pivots before the main drop at the end of 2018. By adding an additional parallel channel, you can see that we're slowly approaching the exact same outer channel resistance as we did in November 2018, before the crash. We seem to be heading for the same type of triangle and DMA50/DMA100 resistance, and volume has been following a similar valley-type build up of momentum leading up to the surge yesterday.
If the same pattern plays out, we should drop back to our triangle support after being rejected by our DMA50/DMA100 and we should breakdown from triangle support as we approach the apex around 20 Feb 2019. This time, however, we still have our weekly SMA200 support to contend with, and this I believe to be the difference between us bottoming now or lower, although I suspect that the WMA200 might not hold this time, just as the iron clad 6k support wasn't able to hold as everyone had expected.
Interestingly, in 2018 the wave down from the previous swing high to our triangle support (24 July 2018), had close to a 68.1 fib retracement afterwards, which gave us a 127.2 fib extension target when we dropped to $5188, before briefly consolidating, and continuing the drop from there to the 161.8 fib support of that wave down, before dropping further and finding our annual low right at the median line of our pitchfork.
The prior main wave from our $9948 swing high in May 2018 to our 24 June swing low (before the start of the triangle uptrend), had a 61.8 fib retracement afterwards, and the 132.8 - 168.1 fib extension of that wave basically set the consolidation range which we are currently in ($3200 - $4200). The 168.1 fib extension of this move coincided with our annual low for 2018.
If you apply the same Fibonacci levels to our current consolidation range, you'll see that after dropping from our triangle support, we should first drop to the next pitchfork channel support, and a 127.2 fib extension target of $2780, where we will probably have brief consolidation, like we did around $5500, before dropping to the 161.8 fib support of that move ($2334), before again finding our pitchfork median support, and finally reaching our next consolidation range, between $1560 - $2160 (138.2 - 168.1 fib extension of the previous wave down), and a new annual low somewhere around 2k.
Looking at our ADX/DI indicator, you can see we had similar trend strength and direction that we had around 6k, and we are fast approaching the same RSI resistance as we had at the 6k drop so for anyone trying to find out if our bottom is already in, this might be your answer but then again, who knows.
Good luck and happy trading!
The "already bottomed" argument:
The more pain bearish bottom argument:
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