BITCOIN Deep Down Analysis (3 Timeframes)
Updated
As said in my previous analysis - something looks suspicious on the BTC chart. Is this a calm before the storm? Do find it out, I make a deeper analysis on the different timeframes (TF) and let's see what conclusion we can get.
Let's start on the DAILY chart:
If yesterday there was nothing which confirms bearish price action then today is definitely different. After yesterday's candle close we got plenty of them.
Firstly, the direction - higher lows, lower highs etc. On the Daily TF those are a bit mixed and not fully confirmed. This higher high close which was on 23. February was pretty nice bullish candle but it didn't reach above the recent higher high wick which has formed on 24 Dec. 2018. 23. Feb. close was promising but we can count this as a manipulation candle because after that we got a pretty ugly candle downwards. So, considering it then we can assume that this higher high close was maybe just manipulation and we can't count this as a strong and confirmed HH candle, plus the last HL is also a bit messy. Currently, can't give any confirmed direction, only the sideways movement is confirmed on the bigger picture.
Secondly and most importantly, after yesterday's candle close we got a bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern and it is formed from a pretty strong area. The Engulfing got a rejection from the round number $4,000 and from the EMA100, which both should work as resistances. It is definitely a bearish sign and almost all are ready and set to make another push downwards below the minor counter trendline (black) and if this trendline breaks then probably we land into the blue area, which is a strong support level, around $3,700.
To trade it short, it is a possibility but as said multiple times, there is something suspicious. If we put ourselves into the market makers situation then there is a perfect spot to do some higher manipulation moves - let's drop it a bit downwards, let's drag retail traders into the bearish side and full throttle upwards (because we haven't used do it with a bullish market and every drop scares us)
Daily TF summary: Mid-term direction sideways, short-term upwards but technically yesterday's candle gave us multiple bearish signs and be ready for the drop. Safer is to stay away from the market because nothing is confirmed and we haven't seen big candles for a while.
4H chart:
At the lower TF we can dig a bit deeper into the Daily candles and we get a better overview of the current direction. Here we can see a bit better picture about higher lows and lower highs. Recently we have got a pretty nice upwards momentums which have guided the price upwards. As you see, we have a bit sloppy channel upwards with this massive fake out/bull trap blablabla...but overall this channel is upwards and the price increase on this channel looks like starting to slow down.
The price starting to lose the momentum and we got a bearish candlestick pattern from a strong area on the Daily TF - doesn't look good at all. As it was on the Daily TF then here is the same thing, we got a next downwards movement confirmation after the price drops below the channel. Here we can see that this channel bottom trendline/minor counter trendline is stronger than it was before because there are two major EMA's which should act as support levels - 100 &200. Still, you should be cautious because of the manipulation moves. If there were nicely predictable bounce areas during the uptrend (watch my previous BTC analysis) then currently, to give to you certain direction is a bit harder. The charts show us several bearish price action but we can't forget - we haven't seen any explosion to either direction for a while.
1H chart:
The sell confirmation area - below $3,920 - becomes stronger and stronger. The price has been on the consolidation box for more than 6 days - around the round number $4,000. This consolidation box matching exactly with the black line which was on the Daily TF a minor counter trendline, on the 4H TF it was a channel bottom trendline and if it makes a breakout downwards then we have a multiple timeframes breakout confirmed.
SUMMARY-SUMMARY: Yesterday's candle close, which was a bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, gave us multiple bearish signs and the sell confirmation area (below the black counter trendline, below the $3,920) became stronger after every TF analysis. The bearish move gets fully confirmed after the 4H candle close below the $3,920. 4H candle close because 1H is not so secure and I don't trust those breakouts which are confirmed only with 1H candle close. Before we don't get any close below the trendline then all goes as planned - upwards. We have a short-term uptrend, short-term higher highs higher lows etc. As you noticed then there are no buy confirmation areas or something like that and that is because there just haven't those. Buy confirmation will come after the bounce upwards from the black minor counter trendline and this bounce should show us some bullish candlestick patterns on the 4H TF and the candle close has to be above $4,000, a pretty precise scenario yes(?!) but it needs to be exactly like this! If we get a strong setup, only then, we get next leg upwards momentum confirmations and if this happens, then as always I make an update!
Wait for confirmations!
If You appreciate my work then do not forget to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE button!
Thank You!
Have a nice day,
Cheers!
*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Let's start on the DAILY chart:
If yesterday there was nothing which confirms bearish price action then today is definitely different. After yesterday's candle close we got plenty of them.
Firstly, the direction - higher lows, lower highs etc. On the Daily TF those are a bit mixed and not fully confirmed. This higher high close which was on 23. February was pretty nice bullish candle but it didn't reach above the recent higher high wick which has formed on 24 Dec. 2018. 23. Feb. close was promising but we can count this as a manipulation candle because after that we got a pretty ugly candle downwards. So, considering it then we can assume that this higher high close was maybe just manipulation and we can't count this as a strong and confirmed HH candle, plus the last HL is also a bit messy. Currently, can't give any confirmed direction, only the sideways movement is confirmed on the bigger picture.
Secondly and most importantly, after yesterday's candle close we got a bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern and it is formed from a pretty strong area. The Engulfing got a rejection from the round number $4,000 and from the EMA100, which both should work as resistances. It is definitely a bearish sign and almost all are ready and set to make another push downwards below the minor counter trendline (black) and if this trendline breaks then probably we land into the blue area, which is a strong support level, around $3,700.
To trade it short, it is a possibility but as said multiple times, there is something suspicious. If we put ourselves into the market makers situation then there is a perfect spot to do some higher manipulation moves - let's drop it a bit downwards, let's drag retail traders into the bearish side and full throttle upwards (because we haven't used do it with a bullish market and every drop scares us)
Daily TF summary: Mid-term direction sideways, short-term upwards but technically yesterday's candle gave us multiple bearish signs and be ready for the drop. Safer is to stay away from the market because nothing is confirmed and we haven't seen big candles for a while.
4H chart:
At the lower TF we can dig a bit deeper into the Daily candles and we get a better overview of the current direction. Here we can see a bit better picture about higher lows and lower highs. Recently we have got a pretty nice upwards momentums which have guided the price upwards. As you see, we have a bit sloppy channel upwards with this massive fake out/bull trap blablabla...but overall this channel is upwards and the price increase on this channel looks like starting to slow down.
The price starting to lose the momentum and we got a bearish candlestick pattern from a strong area on the Daily TF - doesn't look good at all. As it was on the Daily TF then here is the same thing, we got a next downwards movement confirmation after the price drops below the channel. Here we can see that this channel bottom trendline/minor counter trendline is stronger than it was before because there are two major EMA's which should act as support levels - 100 &200. Still, you should be cautious because of the manipulation moves. If there were nicely predictable bounce areas during the uptrend (watch my previous BTC analysis) then currently, to give to you certain direction is a bit harder. The charts show us several bearish price action but we can't forget - we haven't seen any explosion to either direction for a while.
1H chart:
The sell confirmation area - below $3,920 - becomes stronger and stronger. The price has been on the consolidation box for more than 6 days - around the round number $4,000. This consolidation box matching exactly with the black line which was on the Daily TF a minor counter trendline, on the 4H TF it was a channel bottom trendline and if it makes a breakout downwards then we have a multiple timeframes breakout confirmed.
SUMMARY-SUMMARY: Yesterday's candle close, which was a bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, gave us multiple bearish signs and the sell confirmation area (below the black counter trendline, below the $3,920) became stronger after every TF analysis. The bearish move gets fully confirmed after the 4H candle close below the $3,920. 4H candle close because 1H is not so secure and I don't trust those breakouts which are confirmed only with 1H candle close. Before we don't get any close below the trendline then all goes as planned - upwards. We have a short-term uptrend, short-term higher highs higher lows etc. As you noticed then there are no buy confirmation areas or something like that and that is because there just haven't those. Buy confirmation will come after the bounce upwards from the black minor counter trendline and this bounce should show us some bullish candlestick patterns on the 4H TF and the candle close has to be above $4,000, a pretty precise scenario yes(?!) but it needs to be exactly like this! If we get a strong setup, only then, we get next leg upwards momentum confirmations and if this happens, then as always I make an update!
Wait for confirmations!
If You appreciate my work then do not forget to support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE button!
Thank You!
Have a nice day,
Cheers!
*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Note
To talk more about pos. signs, then currently, altcoins make pretty decent climbs, which will be a sign that bulls could try to make another attempt upwards!Note
It is really interesting to see what gonna happen next because altcoins make some tiny bull moves but BTC just waiting for something. Usually, BTC is the direction dictator but currently looks like the power has on the altcoins.It is interesting because we haven't seen this kind of situation very often.
BTC +0.4%
ADA +11%
Other altcoins stay between +1 to +5%
Note
Looks like this ABC wave downwards would like to end up around the danger zone or even below of it. So, I will recommend to watch out and be careful. Carefulness is the most common word around the 4k level because I just haven't seen any really convincing bullish moves around the 4k level.So, watch out this move will guide us into the short-term down bearish move
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Note
The price has moved sideways over a week now (8 days+). Several poor attempts to go higher and vise versa.Slowly, it is drifted into the decision point, point where it has to give us something - the black trendline which is also a counter trendline.
Currently, this trendline has held the price more than three times and yesterday it got another tiny bounce upwards, nothing significant obviously just a small rejection.
From a bullish perspective: in the consolidation area starts to form a bit sloppy Double Bottom chart pattern where the second bottom matching exactly with the trendline touch area. Great, but we can't make any decision before the first move. To predict the price movements in the consolidation area is super-risky and we need confirmations.
Bearish confirmation area is still the same - the next down move is confirmed after the price reached into the red area, then we have a breakout from the consolidation area and break below the counter trendline which both indicates that the short-term further price action is more likely downwards.
First tiny bullish confirmation inside the yellow area would be a bounce from the trendline and a candle close above the $4,000 level. Then we have a confirmed double bottom chart pattern and technically it was a great area where it started to go upwards - from the trendline.
I'll keep You updated because the 8 days+ sideways movement starts to become over.
Currently, we have to wait until the price reaches one of those boxes:
Note
Things have a little bit clearer now and here is the new BTC idea post where You can find short-term confirmation areas:
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