Long

Bitcoin Bullrun Rings (2016-2024)

Updated

In this chart, I showcase my major Bullrun Rings since 2016. As stated on the chart, there have only been 2 failures that still resulted in a major upturn into new ATHs. The only failed trigger since inception was marked in Nov 2013 (not depicted). This saw a close above the green ring and then closed below two weeks later. Prior to this date, 4 additional targets were also proven to signal upward continuation. With regards to my additional ring placements, they help guide and navigate price action direction and assist in providing forecasted support, resistance levels and pivot points. The results are evident and harmonic, to say the least.

Forward-looking projections and Key Takeaways:

As I see it here, there is a little upward free-ranging until we hit either the above or below rings. Just keep in mind, typically once crossed, that price is not seen for a long time, or if not at all.

One major clue in identifying major moves is when these cycle Rings converge or cross one another. On and around the week of the 20th of May 2024 we will be seeing a major crossing of Rings multiple rings. Some of which are not here due to the inability to visually comprehend.

I have labelled some price targets, but be aware rings are not straight and price can, at any point hit a ring. As it stands now the peak of the upper red ring is coincidentally the 2022 ATH at
69K

Final Thoughts
Become subjected to what may appear to be a solar system of overlapping crazy rings, but be sure to look closely and see for yourself the confluence and relationships these rings play into price action and timings.

Thanks
Here is a link to the original post
x.com/LiquidMafia/status/1742916632496963688?s=20

I will be sure to post updates zoomed in as we approach a ring.

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Here is a clearer picture at better resolution

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Bit of an update, following the Bullrun rings. Seems we haven't yet hit total resistance and could stretch a little more before a potential consolidation > to retrace down. However totally open to blasting right through. Here is a screenshot of a zoomed in PA and targets, to watch for. Although I don't expect a low to come in straight away.

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Ok time for an update: We have now broken above the red ring. There is now a cause for alert, as this scenario of breaking the red ring has historically playing into a correction 2-3 weeks after crossing. Whilst for the majority of times, we have typically resisted crossing and retraced prior to breaking upward. Now I could say that "this time is different" however given BTC's price action (PA), BTC has been respecting this chart quite nicely, so far. Furthermore, I've moved and placed an additional vertical line that signals the next pivot ring cross, these are aligned with todays PA and whilst price can fluctuate, these dates will move as they correlate to the (blue) rings. At it stands the next approaching ring cross is the week of the 27th of March. This is one to watch out for. For now remaining above the red ring is ok, closing below (weekly) could indicate a large correction is at play. I'll post more updates as we get closer.

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Hi, little quick update. PA has since my last update has now tagged the bottom side of my red ring. This may hold as support and I do suspect a mini bounce.
PA can most likely be a magnet to this ring for a few days or head up to the top side of the blue pivot ring. This ring cross has also now just moved back...since dropping, which again indicates, PA could move up that means resistance and the dates for ring crossing moves closer... and I'd suspect if that happens the date will move towards the 24th-27th of March.

Just to bring it back to basics. I also have to mention.... resistance at the blue ring could be big, but crossing and closing over the ring signals a continued move upwards. The last time we crossed this ring was in Jan 2023 right when this whole bull run started. A cross above the green ring... signals....well let's just say... it will be fun times again for many months!!!

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Another little update on my rings chart. BTC PA has now broken below the red ring. I believe staying close to this ring is ideal. Moving along and down side is also ideal. As long as we approach the next pivot ring from the downside up I do expect a bounce.... however, it might be conflicting and volatile. As long as a solid close crossing it is printed I will remain bullish.

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Update to Blue Ring Cross. I've made an error and it seems the ring has moved or I've accidentally moved it. So I have now positioned it back into its original state. This error has now changed the ring cross dates. Previously I mentioned the ring cross date could be the 24-27th of March and then also the 1st of April. Whilst this ring is measured on the weekly TF it is also valid to note that close enough to either side of the ring anything can happen, and should be triggered on the weekly TF. It is also a tricky ring cross to propagate. 5/10 ring crosses resulted in an upward continuation, whilst some crosses' price below was never seen again. Whilst 5/10 either saw months of sideways or a quick sell-off (lower than crossing price) before reversing upward. Then of those 5, 2 were ending of bull market and signified a reversal.

I'll post here a screenshot showing that the blue ring placement has been put back as the original publishing of this chart. This now shows that the week of the 6th of May is when we are likely to cross. Keep in mind that PA will affect these dates.
Again I apologise for the misrepresentation.

Here it is on the daily
Note: Dates may look different and this is due to the ring being positioned on weekly TF.

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So, a much needed BIG update to my Bullrun Rings Chart. Whilst this sell off did send Bitcoin down, we have managed to nail support (right to the tee) below on my red ring at $61,308. As mentioned in a previous update, this red ring can act like a magnet and to stay above and/or hover around this ring on multiple days we still can maintain an uptrend. Multiple closes below would suggest more downside although, typically a full-body candle will wick through these rings. If we do see closes below, I'd be cautious of any upside as it could be limited especially if on the weekly timeframe. A close even fractionally below this red ring on the weekly could set us up for some major pain.
To extrapolate this, the last time we crossed below this red ring on the weekly was in March 2020, right before the a major dump. All other rings are also very closely is the same similar proximity which is concerning but not entirely worried just yet. Not to say this will happen again but history does have a tendency to rhythm but maybe not repeat.

Just to reemphasis what the chart is indicating. All green rings that Bitcoin's PA has crossed does project continuation, there will be dips and there will be fake outs but the overall trajectory is upward continuation, until major pivot (blue) rings are crossed or met with heavy resistance. We still have one more major green ring cross. Is it the last or will we cross it much, much later. Who knows, time will tell...

PS: I've also moved these pivot rings across as PA has moved down. I will only post updates and move these rings as PA approaches. There is no point in me moving each time I update as they are still a fair way out.

Here is current PA snapshot

and then a comparison to March 2020. Do we need to come down before crossing the next pivot ring?

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I think it's time to do an update since we had a decent drop below the red ring. Although, for the moment we are keeping intact as we have moved back above, it has suggested some probable strength. As indicated previously a weekly close would prove even more strength. To this date, we have yet to close a weekly below this ring so it remains bullish until proven otherwise. Placing the magnet on the red ring has proven legitimate, as price action has yet again gravitated towards it.

In addition, we are now approximately 2 weeks away from a major cycle pivot. I'll post updates as we get closer, however, for the moment the Bullrun rings are fast approaching and the higher up the quicker they'll come. Another set of 2 crossing rings is also (blue) approaching. I've posted a screenshot where the last 3 times this occurred as this has kick-started some major cycles.

For now, we wait for the weekly close to see if we remain above the red ring. Recalling back to March 2020, this is where the close below played into a continued drop. So we need to watch this. I remain cautiously bullish.

Here is a daily screenshot as well

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BIG Update: I should have paid a lot more attention to this chart so I apologise. This current weekly has actually surpassed the pivot ring cross as it was last week's candle before crossing. I've completely missed this as I've been viewing the daily real-time TV chart. I had failed to view the original chart and view it from the weekly timeframe. So in error, the rings are skewed.

In light of this, my predictions have always been once we hit and cross this ring on the weekly, I expect a big pump and on this week, we got a big pump. This week has yet to close but probabilities do appear that we may have ended this local bottoming range, and we begin to hit the top side of the green ring.

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To view this on the daily, we have yet to cross the ring. I have to respect the positioning of the ring placements and there were constructed on the weekly so I must stay true to that timeframe.

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Well Well... so it appears weekly close has now proven to give us that big pump we were after. The weekly cross of the pivot ring has come to fruition. Now we wait as there is another ring cross early June.

I stay true to these rings and will post an update once we solidify a range high.

I removed some rings to simply the cross on weekly.

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I thought it might be wise to post an update on this chart, considering that coming in the next 2 weeks we will be crossing another major ring cross. This Green ring cross is the whole reason for creating this entire chart and as it stands STILL to this day we have only witnessed 2 failures which still resulted in a major rally to only fail many months later.

I emphasize that the failures are price has never closed (weekly) below the price levels after crossing the Green ring. A wick below is fine but generally, we don't even see that. I estimate that where the ring might cross might pose the lowest side of a drop to no greater than 53k (close).

I will be monitoring this chart very closely and the 3 possible scenarios are:
- Slow boring grind across the ring to later see a pump
- A God candle on the opening side week of the cross, leaving price behind.
- A smallish God candle into the ring cross followed by a major downturn that could potentially wick lower but remain above on closure. Could span for a few weeks.
Here is a screenshot indicating the Green ring and where PA stands now with dates estimated for the week surrounding June 10th.

Please revisit the open comments for more details.

PS: The Green Legend has been updated

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Small update to above, I forgot to mention that any fast pace move up would speed up the Green ring cross over so do not take my projected dates as gospel. They are merely based off current average PA. In addition, historically we haven't seen too much resistance around this ring so if we do not cross and reject, it may not be time we cross...and we might need to wait longer.

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Another update to make which might give a little more context to how we get to the ring cross... I should have posted a screenshot daily to get a little more understanding. Although, I base most of these ring crosses on weekly closures. From what I am seeing here, we could proceed with the slow and boring approach from my possible scenarios.

So if we look back in Dec-Jan 2023 we can see how this played out. Little to no PA and the slow sideways, grind-up which eventually led to a curved propelled move upward. It's actually quite rare to see candles that cross major pivotable rings smallish in size. For the most part, typically you see a large-bodied candle that makes the leap through. Anyway, we never saw it in 2023 so it may occur again soon. See the screenshot for a comparison.

From where PA is currently 6th of June (next week) is where we are targeted to cross (blue ring), however, PA will move this time based on up or downside moves. As for the green ring, that is currently on the 17th of June, as same rules apply. Remember it's the green ring I am looking at, as the blue ring may send us down, pushing us back in time before we cross. If it all goes accordingly, then we should be crossing both rings relatively close by, which would indicate price moves upward...

Interesting week ahead...:)

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Major update, since this weekly candle has opened, we are now currently sitting right on the ring cross over. So it is this week we shall see a move and it appears we have already started to see it. I will be mindful to claim I'd much rather be above the green ring then where we are now, however, PA has proven to be moving upwards so we shall wait and see how this week pans out.
In my screenshot you can see we are on the ring, but on the daily we are few days away. I projected this ring crosses on the weekly so will stay true to that for confirmation, although PA can be quicker or lag on daily.

PS: Funny enough my March 17th update where I place this current blue pivot ring had a crossing date of 4th of June... and look at what day it is.

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It's been a while since I've posted an update, and considering Bitcoin has dropped over the last few days, I think It might be wise to provide some context.

So in terms of rings and crosses. We're pretty much done with pivot crosses (blue), the next isn't till Dec 2025 which is miles away and the last one did signal this decline. However, the green ring, which is the bull market ring, has been rejected for a few days now (see screenshot) and would seem that it might take us out till early July. I've put in a range from the current PA to where we could potentially drop it. If we drop beyond, that ring cross event will be even further away, months even. The critical time would be the 24th of Oct 2024.

We don't typically spend too much time around this green ring, so it could very well be that we are just not at that time of the cycle and need to come much further down before we cross. I still maintain my bias but it is wearing thin.

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Alright time for another update. It has been a while and my last post was somewhat negative and that decline may start to occur.

I've stated many times before, that we need to cross the green ring, anything else is either prolonging the inevitable, which is, it's not time yet. I placed next week's candle lower as that red ring should definitely give us some major bounce, and if not, reversal. At this price point of approx. GETTEX:49K the expected crossing of the green ring is at the end of August. Any low and we go further out.

Fundamentally I am basing my TA on this chart purely around the rings and macro structures of support and resistance, but also timing. However, given there are no more pivot rings this is making it harder to determine (on this chart anyway) Mind you the last pivot ring cross did signal this drop back on the 6th of June. It was a signal nonetheless and could have gone either way. We stay patient and wait for PA to settle and pick up interest again as for where we are here on this chart is a little bit in no mans land.

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MAJOR UPDATE:

Green Ring has now been broken on the daily (not closed) !!! This rally-up has triggered off a crossover and although I was not anticipating this move for at least a few more days, PA can move UP whenever it does and now the daily candle has broken through. The weekly also opened above and now has crossed above, I will hold for further confirmation of this until this week's candle closes and today's daily, but to understand the context of this means that it is very unlikely to see a price below 53k for a long time. As stated in my opening details of this chart 4/6 times PA never retraced below the break-out point of the green ring, once crossed, and even in those 2 times price rallied a lot more before returning, and it took months to do so.

For this chart, I now claim a very high probability for the price to continue upward. Solidifying this on a weekly close would only reinforce my bias! Let's see how the daily holds first

Rings forever!

Weekly

Daily

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I recall my weekly open above the green ring, this did not occur. $61,200 is ring price point $400 away from opening above.

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Well Well... the daily has now closed 2 candles well above the green ring. This for me has semi-confirmed that we are on track to my first target of , based on this chart.

With a few more days until weekly closes, I retain my bias and direction of UP only with little to no retracements until the price has found its next consolidation. We watch and wait....

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PS I added another ring (from another chart) to showcase a potential resistance point.

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**Major Bitcoin Bullrun Ring UPDATE:**
Bitcoins price action today has put this chart in a serious predicament of concern. We have now broken back under my green ring and that could indicate that probabilities have lessened with the idea of upward continuation. For months I have led the idea that crossing the green ring signals that a strong push upwards would take place and that a price below that crossing point would not immediately occur unless it wasn't for a long time. Today, within 2 weeks this occurred and somewhat invalidates the future of this chart. However, and BIG one, the 2/6 cases whereby this did occur, (2016+2020) prices did dip below short-term, but then proceeded with massive gains to later revisit that price back under the initial ring crossing at a later stage. This often marked the top of a cycle and a drop back under. So with that, the only 2 cases of bullish scenarios I see now are:

1. Close this weekly candle back above the green ring approx. $55, 600k like we did in 2020 and gain strength to continue onwards and upwards to another new ATH.
2. Close under the green ring and bounce back up later and witness a similar scenario to 2016 where we had a significant selloff but it launched us upwards to a final peak of 2017s ATHs.

So with that, the scenarios have reduced however, it does give us insight to know that after this potential last leg upwards, there is good chance that we will be coming back down, to much lower prices. I think EW macro counts also shows confluence to this (2.) scenario. The irony is also that I see a lot of ppl refer to this cycle much like the 2013 cycle more so than the 2017 cycle. So it will be interesting to see if this repeating pattern plays out. If this scenario does not play out then yes I will wave my flag and admit defeat. This will be one to look back on regardless whatever the outcomes is.

LiquidMafia

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