BTC INTO A BULL CYCLE-UNTIL THE BIGGER CRASH NOT SO SOON
Here is a reasonable correlation of BTC patterns and why we are at the end of the bears. As you can see, the first chart shows the 2013 crash(not the 2014 one. this one took about 4 months, just like the one we have today-and it broke out after 4 months).
The movements aren't exactly identical but the hype, popularity and insight wasn't the same back then, so in 2017 December we had another bull run after the run to 20k, which ended at around 17k. This is the hype. We must look for correlations between the bigger pictures, like where a cycle started&where it ended. Everything between those two points is noise, which may have changed since 2013.
What I'm focusing on is: It doesn't make sense to say we will have the 2014 crash just because the crash took so long. As you can see, the crash on 2013 took just as long as the one now-4 months. And leaded to another parabolic leg upwards making amazing gains, until the bigger crash in 2014. We can't just jump from 1 month corrections right into a 1,5 year one. The 2014 crash had a smaller crash before it(like the one we have now before the bigger crash starting in around 2019). But now we didn't really have that 2013 'smaller' crash beforehand to have the 2014 crash again.We're in that 'smaller' crash and it's ending. This spike today just supports this pattern even more. The 2 weeks of consolidation around 6k supports this too. I spoke about a reversal on my previous idea too, if you give it a read, it shows how we are going through a reversal in 4hr candles. And this one is about 1d candles. So let's watch this last daily candle breaking the long downtrend line, or the ones in the next days. We're in the early stages of a bull cycle now-hope so!
The movements aren't exactly identical but the hype, popularity and insight wasn't the same back then, so in 2017 December we had another bull run after the run to 20k, which ended at around 17k. This is the hype. We must look for correlations between the bigger pictures, like where a cycle started&where it ended. Everything between those two points is noise, which may have changed since 2013.
What I'm focusing on is: It doesn't make sense to say we will have the 2014 crash just because the crash took so long. As you can see, the crash on 2013 took just as long as the one now-4 months. And leaded to another parabolic leg upwards making amazing gains, until the bigger crash in 2014. We can't just jump from 1 month corrections right into a 1,5 year one. The 2014 crash had a smaller crash before it(like the one we have now before the bigger crash starting in around 2019). But now we didn't really have that 2013 'smaller' crash beforehand to have the 2014 crash again.We're in that 'smaller' crash and it's ending. This spike today just supports this pattern even more. The 2 weeks of consolidation around 6k supports this too. I spoke about a reversal on my previous idea too, if you give it a read, it shows how we are going through a reversal in 4hr candles. And this one is about 1d candles. So let's watch this last daily candle breaking the long downtrend line, or the ones in the next days. We're in the early stages of a bull cycle now-hope so!
Note
The bigger picture we need:Note
Sorry for the typo, the first chart is now as you can see,and the second one is from 2013Note
Another important thing to add, it took the about the same time of the decline to recover to the previous ATH in 2013. Decline= 4 months and recovering to the neckline(ATH)= 4 months.So we can say that it will roughly take 4 months-until August of 2018- to get back to 20k,then we will fly.
Note
Of course nothing is certain,but if this scenario will play out,the time is exactly these days to have a reversal. So we have to watch closely to see if it succeeds. If not,trade will be closed.Trade active
Daily candle closed above the long term downtrend line!Note
(1D candles)
The pattern is following perfectly as you can see on the snaphot. This snapshot is a zoomed in version of the idea, and the circled part is the wave we're currently in. If btc bottoms around 7500-8000 and rises slowly until 9000 where we will have another short term stop, the pattern will be still active.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.