Updated

Bitcoin Trading | Sell & Buy Orders | Elliott Wave - Part 3

BTC/USD - 4H Chart

Primary 2 (blue) Structure - Double Zig-Zag
Zig-Zag in Intermediate (W) (pink) followed by another Zig-Zag in Intermediate (X) (pink).

Intermediate (Y) (pink) - Expectations
Minor degree ABC (red) sequence.

Technicals - Favorable Details
- Descending Channel within a Complex Correction
- Bearish Divergence at the termination points of Intermediate (X) (pink)
- Potential Head & Shoulders formation at the Minor B (red) juncture
- Bull-Flag Pattern in Primary 2 (blue)
- Harmonic Pattern: Bearish Bat
- 78.6% Fibonacci Retracements of July's swing-low

Bitcoin Trading | Sell & Buy Orders

Bearish | SELL Levels

Aggressive Entry @ Market Execution (approx. 0.8960) with SL @ 0.9020
Moderate Entry @ 11800.00 (or Market Price) with SL @ 12650.00
Conservative Entry @ 12500.00 with SL @ 13450.00
TP @ 10500.00 / 9500.00 / 7500.00

Bullish | BUY Levels

Moderate Entry @ 7500.00 (or Market Price) with SL @ 5800.00
Conservative Entry @ 5550.00 with SL @ 3850.00
TP @ 10500.00 / 9500.00 / 7500.00 / 10000.00 / 14000.00 / 16500.00 / 18000.00 / 21000.00 / 25000.00 / 30000.00 / 35000.00

Safety Measures:
Moving SL to beak-even when in the green.

Note

Primary 2 (blue) Structure - Double Zig-Zag
Zig-Zag in Intermediate (W) (pink) followed by another Zig-Zag in Intermediate (X) (pink).

Intermediate (Y) (pink) - Expectations
Minor degree ABC (red) sequence.

Technicals - Favorable Details
- Descending Channel within a Complex Correction
- Bearish Divergence at the termination points of Intermediate (X) (pink)
- Potential Head & Shoulders formation at the Minor B (red) juncture
- Bull-Flag Pattern in Primary 2 (blue)
- Harmonic Pattern: Bearish Bat
- 78.6% Fibonacci Retracements of July's swing-low

Note

Bearish | SELL Levels

Aggressive Entry @ 11800.00 (or Market Price) with SL @ 12650.00

Moderate Entry @ 12500.00 with SL @ 13450.00

Conservative Entry @ 13000.00 with SL @ 14500.00

TP @ 10500.00 / 9500.00 / 7500.00

Bullish | BUY Levels

Moderate Entry @ 7500.00 (or Market Price) with SL @ 5800.00

Conservative Entry @ 5550.00 with SL @ 3850.00

TP @ 10500.00 / 9500.00 / 7500.00 / 10000.00 / 14000.00 / 16500.00 / 18000.00 / 21000.00 / 25000.00 / 30000.00 / 35000.00

Safety Measures:

Moving SL to beak-even when in the green.

Note

Trade active

First push lower has been done.

Important now to watch for how the rise will look:

If it's corrective and would find resistance at the 78.6%, then a sharp fall should follow.

To be mentioned that an impulsive rise could still occur, due to this type of structure, however, it should not be extended.

Note

BTCUSD Bearish Impulse in the making.

Note

Minor A (red) almost complete.

Trade closed: target reached

TP1 & TP2 - Targets Reached!

Partial Profit Taken.

SL moved to break-even.

BTCUSD should start a bullish sequence very soon.
I will be monitoring it to see what type of structure in will unfold in and then update again.

Note

Minor B (red) over and going straight down, or are we gonna have the Head & Shoulders?!?

Double Three sequence confirmed.

Note

Watching the price action for the next decisive signs.

Note

Minor B (red) either in a Barrier Triangle or a Double Flat.

Minor C (red) pending.

Note

Not a Triangle! Still a Double Three.

Note

Bearish Divergence at the termination of Minor B (red) implies a sell-off to commence.

Note

Bearish Minor C (red) should have started.

Note

If BTCUSD will continue lower and breach through, then Minor B (red) is complete.
The structure would still allow a rise until the 161.8% Fibs, so I will be watching it closely for further signs.
Down-side still in play until further notice.

Note

Important to watch the price action this week, as a sharp drop could lead towards Minor C (red) confirmation.

Note

I think: bearish

Note

Running Flat scenario in a wave 2 position.
We might go lower in an impulse.
Watching the upper trend-line for a rejection.
If it goes above it and makes a bull-flag on it, then things would become more complicated. Note that Minor B (red) might still be unfolding. Only a sudden drop would confirm Minor C (red).

Note

Minor C (red) confirmed.
Success!

Note

Minute iii (red) almost complete.
A bit more patience, a bit more down-side.

Note

Minute iv (red) in play.

Note

Minute iv (red) preparing to complete.
Last wave down due to come.

Note

Analysis on track. BTCUSD in a Minute iv (red).
Flat correction or a Triangle about to finalize.
Bearish leg pending.

Note

Good chances that bearish Minute V (red) may have started unfolding.

Note

Minute V (red) should have started.

Note

Minute V looks impulsive still, a bit more to go on the down-side.

Note

Trade closed: target reached

TP3 Target Reached!

7500 acted as a support indeed.

So far, the structure has been unfolding as a Double Three.

We do have an impulse on the up-side, retracement pending.

To be noted that a Triple Three is still possible, which means that the current spike could still be a false-positive (fake break-out).
More signs should pop in as the structure unfolds.
5500 still possible, but the down-side needs to be confirmed, so far bulls are gaining confidence.

Trade active

Bullish Levels 7500 triggered.

Note

Realistic possibility for a long around the current levels.

Note

Double Three in the making.
Watching for a break-out or a support.
Fibs are most important now.

Note

I can see you are all asking questions, so I will clear the waters with this update.

For an imminent bullish reaction and the confirmation of the very big impulse, BTCUSD really needs to jump NOW.

7293.55 is crucial and it must not be broken. If it does, then the structure would become a Triple Three, extending its complexity, with lower levels to be seen eventually.

The current drop is a correction and a move upwards is due, no matter what the structure lies behind.
If a new low will be made, then it would be seen as a B wave correction, allowing BTCUSD to react towards 10k+ levels, then continuing lower towards the actual bottom.

Bitcoin Trading | Sell & Buy Orders | Elliott Wave - Part 3

Many pips ahead,
Richard

Note

BTCUSD structure becoming more complex, with more down-side possible.

The fact that we've seen something lower than 7293.55 puts BTCUSD in the following scenario:

- Triple Three (WXYXZ) structure.
An impulsive and bullish C leg should commence, after which a last bearish pattern would start unfolding.

Things to watch for:
*The way it goes up! It has to have an impulsive 5-wave sequence.
If it doesn't, then it would dip more and continue.
*The way it would go down after the expected bullish sequence.
If it's corrective, then it could go bullish for good.
If it's impulsive, then the Triple Three scenario is valid.

Note

A rise is due.

Note

Bullish leg starting.

Note

An impulsive rise has started.
Important to track it, because it could very much be a wave C, for a completion of a correction. If so, more down-side is there.
More details as the chart unfolds.

Note

No clear evidence of power within this structure.
It has been labeled as a Running Contracting Triangle.
Verdict is a bearish continuation for now.

Note

Minor B finalizing soon.

Note

Ending Diagonal still in play.

Important to watch the next bearish leg, to see if it will be consistent.
A breach of the lower trend-line would open the door for the down-side.
The bearish divergence is there, however this diagonal can still extend a bit more.

Note

Bearish Divergence getting real and the Ending Diagonal is getting clearer.
To be noted that I am not comfortable with the way this bullish swing started, in a "three", therefore, I would be resilient to think that we are actually starting the major up-side. IMO, the current rise is a termination point for either a larger degree X wave, or a B wave correction. A few more pieces and this puzzle will be solved, regardless of its intentions.

Note

Ending Diagonal, well... ending soon

Note

@Lionheart-EWA, Ending Diagonal ... ending soon :)
C leg of the 5th wave in the diagonal (wedge) pending, above 10K mark.

Note

Bullish 5th wave in the Ending Diagonal finalizing asap, with the overshoot expected to continue above the 10K mark. Bearishness expected to commence around or at the 10500 levels.

Important notes:
- the swing on the down-side needs to be impulsive in order to unlock new lows
- if it's corrective, then it could reflect as a wave 2 correction, with all eyes on 7.5K

Note

BTCUSD finalized the reversal pattern (ending diagonal).
A 25% drop would start, back towards the most significant levels of 2019-2020, the $7500 levels.
It remains to be seen what kind of reaction it would have there, further tracking would be required. If a breach of the Golden Ratio would occur, then it would open the doors for $5500 and confirm the extended Triple Three (WXYXZ).
If a bullish impulse would occur at the Golden Ratio levels ($7500), then the structure would need to be a zig-zag in a wave 2 correction, or a sharp "three", and it would reflect the "trip to Mars" episode.

PM me for private support.

Note

Overshoot in progress. BTCUSD extending the diagonal with a final wedge.

This being a reversal pattern, I would not be looking to buy unless a fall unfolds.

Note

Crucial times right now.

Note

BTCUSD dropped hard, as expected.
If it continues lower, then the down-side would be confirmed.
A rise above the 10300 levels would indicate that this drop was the termination point of wave 4 in the diagonal.

Note

If BTCUSD is gonna breach and continue lower, then this would be it.

Note

Important decision to be made at 9.5K

Note

BTC indeed fell, as expected, towards the 61.8% FR.

Important decision to be made asap.

Note

Time to load them BUYS

I see BTCUSD running towards the 30K mark.
It's either gonna be 7500 or 5500.
Good to load buys and hold.

Note

Continuing to track BTCUSD with this idea:

Trading Signal | BTCUSD | Swing | Elliott Wave (Mar 2020) - 4H

EW4X

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EW4X

Also on:

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Bitcoin Trading | Sell & Buy Orders | Elliott Wave - Part 1 W

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