Short

BTCUSD at EXTREME levels, Looking for an Expanded Flat

Updated

We could be looking at an Expanded Flat all the way down to 2K-4K...possibly lower. The extremes along with the fact that we have 3 waves off the bottom (around 3K) means to me, we are still in this correction that started Dec 2017.

BTCUSDSHORTS at EXTREME low levels. Look at all other extremes and you will see the inverse tops and bottoms. Large number of shorts, means we are at a significant bottom. An extreme low number, we are nearing a top. I think we are in the latter.

I do NOT think this is the time to be long.

Sentiment:
alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/
crypto-sentiment.com/
blockchainwhispers.com/bitmex-position-calculator/

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BTW...this goes for all of the crypto space I follow...most everything follows BTC.

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XRP may have already started the crash, um, correction:
ibb.co/644mkPH

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If you look at the ~13th March, and that DEEP correction, which warned/indicated to me that that level will most likely be broken in the future. I was thinking a 1/2 1/2, until that. After that correction, I started looking for a high B wave. Anything is possible, but with this EXTREME positive sentiment, I doubt there is much/any more upside left.

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The Awesome Oscillator is now above Dec 2017 top (20K)...WAY overbought. XRP is clearly in a 5-wave down move that is complete or nearly so, for a first down.

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Possible small Ending Diagonal on 5 Min chart, starting @ $36300, indicating a significant move down.

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Ending Diagonal is still possible, now on 30 min chart. It keeps expanding in time and size. We may have just now completed the 2nd wave. $36300 has to hold prior to getting to around 43K, in 3-3-3 waves. This could last for a few/several days. At that time, it should be more clear or invalidated.

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No ED, but could be working on 5 down, something like this:
ibb.co/mN0bSJV

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It's possible to call this small ii off 30K (image in above comment) , complete. It could also just be wave A of A-B-C of ii. WAY lower is expected in wave iii.

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It's possible that the top is in @ $40100, with wave c going deeper than expected. To confirm this, we need 30K taken out and accelerated price movement down. This should start acting like the beginning of a third wave. Price above $40100 would bring that into question.

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One warning; we have to consider that Jan 11th/$30246 could be an A wave and now we are in a C of a 4th smaller correction. This could end around 20K-23K. I will consider getting out, at least until I see if the bounce is in 3 waves or 5. 3 waves, I’ll be looking for short positions…5, I will be looking for long positions.

If you look at the 4-hour chart, you can see a Head and Shoulders, where we just past through the neckline. Elliott Wave got me in way higher and earlier, short of course.

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So far, it's 3 waves off $28800, with a possible Head and Shoulders neckline directly above @ around $35200. This is the last chance to take the move down to at least 20K-23K...otherwise, something else is going on.

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So far so good. We appear to be working on 5 down. Price kissed the neckline and slowly made it's way down. Anything above, or even near $34900, would invalidate the bearish expectation.

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Just so you know how EXTREME BTCUSDSHORTS (orange) and the momentum/Awesome oscillator are, because you can no longer see them above:
ibb.co/2Mt3dLn
This beats the top at 20K Dec 2017
Crazy.

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15M chart, If this is three waves off of $29150 then it ended at $31700, which is the new stop.

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It's possible to see the move from $34800 to $29150 as a first wave, where in typical fashion, the 5th wave extends, looking nearly like three waves instead of 5.
It needs to prove this to me with 5 down to $29150 and three up.

Trade closed: stop reached

$31700 hit. This is clearly not impulsive down, but a more corrective 4th. We could be looking at and above. On a 2nd wave pullback, I will be long.

trader_jackson

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