Though Bitcoin showed some solid strength into the Friday session, the market overall corrected and the correction is probably not over yet. Looking for selling pressure next week but that does not imply it will be straight down.
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin rallied out of the 50-56k support area, and we took that opportunity to add a small position to our holdings around 56,500. This is for a longer term move to 90k.
So the question is will the market still consolidate providing a D and E leg or is there enough buyers that the correction is over and we are starting leg 5 of a broader move?
I don't know and neither does anyone else. For all I know there could be an F and G leg as well. However with the stock market looking like it wants to correct, and gold pulling off its highs, I expect the consolidation is not over and I am looking for the D and E leg.
Would like to see an attempt to retest the low or even push back to the 50k area around the 38.2% retrace area. Now these are not magical numbers, they just provide some perspective on levels we like to look for some sort of signal to go long or short.
If you are long right now, there is nothing screaming to get out yet. If you missed the opportunity to buy around 55k, then be patient my friend, good things come to those that wait.
In short, not buying, not selling, waiting for a setup for the next leg higher.
NASDAQ:
NASDAQ clearly has printed a short setup, and though the swing and position trades were knocked out, the options trades are doing well and my hedge vs my portfolio is finally in the black.
The long engulfing candle is not a good sign for the market next week and I will be looking to sell more calls or add to my short position. I like selling calls at this point because I already have a short position, so just trying to collect some premium by selling options.
Right now we are at a minor support level at 475. This is the level to watch next week because if we take that out I think we retest 465 pretty quickly which is the next minor level of support.
Minor levels of support 475:465:459. minor levels or resistance 481:486. So for daytraders these are the levels I would be watching for setups for trades.
Major support is around 445 area, but I do not think we get there in one or two days. Could take weeks or months to unfold.
Trade update:
The July19 495 Calls we sold at 6.64 each expired worthless netting us a nice $1327.00 for the trade. This is in addition to the 485 Call sold for 2.29 netting us $229.00 after expiring worthless.
The 476 Call we sold at 4.26 was assigned netting us a short position from 480.26. Add this to the 100 shares short from 476.84 provides us a net 200 share short position with a 478.55 average cost.
Realized gains on the options trades is $1556.00
Non-Realized gains on our short hedge position is $666.00
Gold:
Gold made an attempt to break out but printed a bearish pinbar instead. But hold on a minute, this is the weekly chart and though this is a short setup, the daily paints a different picture. Lets zoom in.
On a daily time frame you can see the breakout from 2400 which was prior resistance and also a psychological level. Though it printed a failed high prior to pulling back it is just now retesting that 2400 resistance now support level.
So for Gold right now I am looking for longs. Yeah I don't like that candle, but over a year of consolidation between 2300-2400 and I think there is little chance we see 2000 anytime soon. I think it is more likely we see 2500 over the next year, or by the end of this one.
Support levels are 2400:2380:2360 Resistance is 2420. I am looking at these support levels for long setups and if we get into the low 2300's by chance, maybe add a little physical to my stash!!
Ok that is it for the week, I will post some potential stocks I am looking at tomorrow, specifically in Bio-tech that has been so beaten up over the past year. Love those hated bio-techs.
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin rallied out of the 50-56k support area, and we took that opportunity to add a small position to our holdings around 56,500. This is for a longer term move to 90k.
So the question is will the market still consolidate providing a D and E leg or is there enough buyers that the correction is over and we are starting leg 5 of a broader move?
I don't know and neither does anyone else. For all I know there could be an F and G leg as well. However with the stock market looking like it wants to correct, and gold pulling off its highs, I expect the consolidation is not over and I am looking for the D and E leg.
Would like to see an attempt to retest the low or even push back to the 50k area around the 38.2% retrace area. Now these are not magical numbers, they just provide some perspective on levels we like to look for some sort of signal to go long or short.
If you are long right now, there is nothing screaming to get out yet. If you missed the opportunity to buy around 55k, then be patient my friend, good things come to those that wait.
In short, not buying, not selling, waiting for a setup for the next leg higher.
NASDAQ:
NASDAQ clearly has printed a short setup, and though the swing and position trades were knocked out, the options trades are doing well and my hedge vs my portfolio is finally in the black.
The long engulfing candle is not a good sign for the market next week and I will be looking to sell more calls or add to my short position. I like selling calls at this point because I already have a short position, so just trying to collect some premium by selling options.
Right now we are at a minor support level at 475. This is the level to watch next week because if we take that out I think we retest 465 pretty quickly which is the next minor level of support.
Minor levels of support 475:465:459. minor levels or resistance 481:486. So for daytraders these are the levels I would be watching for setups for trades.
Major support is around 445 area, but I do not think we get there in one or two days. Could take weeks or months to unfold.
Trade update:
The July19 495 Calls we sold at 6.64 each expired worthless netting us a nice $1327.00 for the trade. This is in addition to the 485 Call sold for 2.29 netting us $229.00 after expiring worthless.
The 476 Call we sold at 4.26 was assigned netting us a short position from 480.26. Add this to the 100 shares short from 476.84 provides us a net 200 share short position with a 478.55 average cost.
Realized gains on the options trades is $1556.00
Non-Realized gains on our short hedge position is $666.00
Gold:
Gold made an attempt to break out but printed a bearish pinbar instead. But hold on a minute, this is the weekly chart and though this is a short setup, the daily paints a different picture. Lets zoom in.
On a daily time frame you can see the breakout from 2400 which was prior resistance and also a psychological level. Though it printed a failed high prior to pulling back it is just now retesting that 2400 resistance now support level.
So for Gold right now I am looking for longs. Yeah I don't like that candle, but over a year of consolidation between 2300-2400 and I think there is little chance we see 2000 anytime soon. I think it is more likely we see 2500 over the next year, or by the end of this one.
Support levels are 2400:2380:2360 Resistance is 2420. I am looking at these support levels for long setups and if we get into the low 2300's by chance, maybe add a little physical to my stash!!
Ok that is it for the week, I will post some potential stocks I am looking at tomorrow, specifically in Bio-tech that has been so beaten up over the past year. Love those hated bio-techs.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.