Bitcoin's parabolic run will be ending soon
Bitcoin has had a record breaking year, but is close to coming to an end soon.
Charted are all the instances of bitcoin going 100% over this year, I will post down here as well
750 -> 1500 took 111 days
1500 -> 3000 took 94 days
3000 -> 6000 took 76 days
6000 -> 12000 took 47 days
10000-> 20000 took 19 days
12000-> 24000 takes ?? days
20000-> 40000 takes ?? days
Bitcoin will top out in about <45 days time, one of these milestones will be the last for the year, or a while, bitcoin will settle down to its true value as mania stops and reality sets in
We are currently in the 'public phase' of a bubble cycle, talk show hosts, mainstream media shows, social media and other mediums are all talking bitcoin people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/stages_in_a_bubble.html
Some quick examples of 'Public' stage:
youtu.be/w7hf5wbggdA?t=37s
youtube.com/watch?v=JcltwF0flj8
youtu.be/A8HLnDP6uRM?t=5m39s
youtube.com/watch?v=peDfeLtbxj0
youtube.com/watch?v=nRItzSX0aCM
Bitcoin surpasses gold in searches: trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin,gold
These 'investors' most likely are not doing research into blockchain, what makes bitcoin valuable. They see the returns and want to hop on ignorant of the way bitcoin works. They search bitcoin online, and pundits all give increasingly insane valuations 40k! 100k! 1000k per bitcoin! Wow, it must still be on the ground floor and we are still the early adopters!
What is left out is how broken bitcoin is as a currency, a means of exchange, it can take up to $20 per transaction and still take many hours to confirm. Check the mempool here over 140k transactions unconfirmed as of posting: jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/
Bitcoin is WAY overvalued for the utility it currently provides. For bitcoin to sustain itself, I would put a fair price of $2000-$3000 per BTC, before blocks were full and transactions were less than $1. Even though that is still too much for a currency, it's still a fair price to pay for decentralization. The currency is still able to be moved around and there is a real demand for bitcoin product and services like gambling, online retail that can sustain a $2000 bitcoin indefinitely. THE CURRENT DEMAND IS NOT THESE APPLICATIONS, it is other currencies in the space, bitcoin is needed to trade these, and the demand is for all the wrong reasons namely speculation.
For all the reasons above I am exiting the space 80% all holdings and will sit on the sidelines and watch the fireworks. I ask that you take a moment to critically ask yourself if it is sustainable and for how long, you may come to the same conclusions.
Thank you for reading
Charted are all the instances of bitcoin going 100% over this year, I will post down here as well
750 -> 1500 took 111 days
1500 -> 3000 took 94 days
3000 -> 6000 took 76 days
6000 -> 12000 took 47 days
10000-> 20000 took 19 days
12000-> 24000 takes ?? days
20000-> 40000 takes ?? days
Bitcoin will top out in about <45 days time, one of these milestones will be the last for the year, or a while, bitcoin will settle down to its true value as mania stops and reality sets in
We are currently in the 'public phase' of a bubble cycle, talk show hosts, mainstream media shows, social media and other mediums are all talking bitcoin people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/stages_in_a_bubble.html
Some quick examples of 'Public' stage:
youtu.be/w7hf5wbggdA?t=37s
youtube.com/watch?v=JcltwF0flj8
youtu.be/A8HLnDP6uRM?t=5m39s
youtube.com/watch?v=peDfeLtbxj0
youtube.com/watch?v=nRItzSX0aCM
Bitcoin surpasses gold in searches: trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin,gold
These 'investors' most likely are not doing research into blockchain, what makes bitcoin valuable. They see the returns and want to hop on ignorant of the way bitcoin works. They search bitcoin online, and pundits all give increasingly insane valuations 40k! 100k! 1000k per bitcoin! Wow, it must still be on the ground floor and we are still the early adopters!
What is left out is how broken bitcoin is as a currency, a means of exchange, it can take up to $20 per transaction and still take many hours to confirm. Check the mempool here over 140k transactions unconfirmed as of posting: jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/
Bitcoin is WAY overvalued for the utility it currently provides. For bitcoin to sustain itself, I would put a fair price of $2000-$3000 per BTC, before blocks were full and transactions were less than $1. Even though that is still too much for a currency, it's still a fair price to pay for decentralization. The currency is still able to be moved around and there is a real demand for bitcoin product and services like gambling, online retail that can sustain a $2000 bitcoin indefinitely. THE CURRENT DEMAND IS NOT THESE APPLICATIONS, it is other currencies in the space, bitcoin is needed to trade these, and the demand is for all the wrong reasons namely speculation.
For all the reasons above I am exiting the space 80% all holdings and will sit on the sidelines and watch the fireworks. I ask that you take a moment to critically ask yourself if it is sustainable and for how long, you may come to the same conclusions.
Thank you for reading
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