Following my recent publication, the market’s micro movements continue to closely mirror the structure of the previous bull cycle, as illustrated by the blue bars in the model.
If history is to rhyme once again in this stochastic-driven market, we can expect a few more short-term declines in the coming weeks, potentially retesting the 50-week EMA to establish a bottom. Should these pullbacks occur on decreasing volume, accompanied by a rise in the Fear & Greed Index, it would significantly increase the probability of one final leg upward, culminating in the projected cycle peak around September–October.
While the model currently projects the final week of the bull cycle, it’s important to approach this stage with measured risk. It may be wiser to exit long positions a few weeks ahead of the anticipated euphoric top, acting on probabilities rather than chasing certainty.
If history is to rhyme once again in this stochastic-driven market, we can expect a few more short-term declines in the coming weeks, potentially retesting the 50-week EMA to establish a bottom. Should these pullbacks occur on decreasing volume, accompanied by a rise in the Fear & Greed Index, it would significantly increase the probability of one final leg upward, culminating in the projected cycle peak around September–October.
While the model currently projects the final week of the bull cycle, it’s important to approach this stage with measured risk. It may be wiser to exit long positions a few weeks ahead of the anticipated euphoric top, acting on probabilities rather than chasing certainty.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.