What's up guys,
I got stopped out of my last trade at $7130 for a profit of 1100/BTC long. Which is the same profit I made on the short trade before that. I've been bullish lately, and this dip doesn't really prove me wrong, but my strategy insists I go against what I am feeling anyways (or at least it will if we close the candle red).
I want to share with you guys the most profitable trade I made all year. This trade single-handedly doubled my bitcoin stack and the trade right before it was a close second, but I wasn't on TV then. Anyways, I'd recommend reading about it here:
In that trade, I was short from $8200 and the price fell to $6000. I am a leveraged trader, so that is how I doubled the account on a 25% move. I should go into detail about how I successfully trade with leverage, but that will be an educational post for another day. I mention this article, because people are going to see my last posts and be like, "YoungShkreli WAS BULLISH AT THE TOP." First off, I am ALWAYS bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom - I only switch my view NEAR the extremes. Catching the extremes is almost impossible and I don't have a strategy to do that that isn't based off of scaling your bets ie dollar-cost averaging (which doesn't count because your average won't be the top or bottom). If I did, I would be a trillionaire. I would be so good in the markets that people would leave. Fortunately (for everyone else) that is not the case.
I simply go with what I see. So, here is what I see now...
If we can close today's candle red, then I will short bitcoin at a small scale (I always scale my bets aka dollar-cost average). I am not necessarily as certain that we will hit 5k as I was last month or maybe two months ago, but I will bet that way because I don't trade based off of what I think or my emotions. I base trades off of a strategy that is based off of minimizing risk and having more upside than downside. If we go to 5k next, then I will get an almost perfect entry even if I don't see it coming. That's THE WHOLE IDEA people: I don't have to be right to make money, I can be wrong A MAJORITY of the time and still make money. This is because my downside is always very small and my upside is very large. Every time I make a trade, my expected value (go look up this stats term) is extremely positive. That's why I make money. I play a game with a high expected value over and over and over again.
So, all in all, this drop isn't that bearish to me absolutely, I wish we fell more because that would make things easier, but oh well. I would not be surprised at all if we got back to $7,500 and I would not be surprised if we go to $0. I can't be surprised. That is what makes me a good trader. I am always prepared for ANYTHING.
Even in the event of a flash crash, I am prepared, how? Because Bitmex offers cross margin. I trade on many exchanges, and Bitmex is one of them. I can use equity from hedged positions to prevent liquidation from other positions. I don't get screwed ever. Ever! Because I am ALWAYS prepared. There is not a single possible circumstance that I am not prepared for (in terms of price).
The one event I am not prepared for is a theft or seizure of my funds, but once I decide how I am going to secure all of my gains, then I will be prepared for that too. Basically, I am planning to gradually take all of my profits off the table (ton of profit tbh) and trade solely with a static account where I take the profits off of every trade and take it offline. This is what the absolute finest traders do, and I will be following their lead on this (look up Ugly Old Goat - he will tell you this is what he does).
I hope you all learned something, maybe this should be an educational post, but I do talk about the current market conditions so I guess it is an analysis.
If I have been helpful, please like my work and follow me, it helps us both.
-YoungShkreli
PS There is so much that I haven't shared with you about how I trade. I haven't even mentioned options for bitcoin ever. Literally ever, and I've been trading options on deribit for quite some time. Most people don't understand options and so there is no real reason for me to talk about it, but I'm just telling you so that you understand that even though I have shared a lot of knowledge, it is practically nothing. I haven't covered how to scale trades, place stops, use leverage, use different options strategies, hedging strategies, create synthetic calls/puts, choose timeframes, backtesting etc. That is why I can offer what I have for free and not feel like a chump :) I also enjoy helping people, so there's that.
PSS I am not the only good trader in crypto. I believe I might be the best trader on TV, but I am not sure. That said, there are many better traders on other platforms. Go search for them. They have taught me almost all that I know. Ugly Old Goat writes INCREDIBLE posts on medium and makes great tweets. I follow Tone Vays and he's okay as well. There are tons of different traders I am always following to see if I can learn from them. The top traders of bitmex (top 25 notional traders) are some of the smartest people in the entire world. Seek them and ye shall find them. You WILL become rich if you learn their ways because they play a game that has a positive expected value - as long as you keep playing, your net worth will keep trending higher.
I got stopped out of my last trade at $7130 for a profit of 1100/BTC long. Which is the same profit I made on the short trade before that. I've been bullish lately, and this dip doesn't really prove me wrong, but my strategy insists I go against what I am feeling anyways (or at least it will if we close the candle red).
I want to share with you guys the most profitable trade I made all year. This trade single-handedly doubled my bitcoin stack and the trade right before it was a close second, but I wasn't on TV then. Anyways, I'd recommend reading about it here:
In that trade, I was short from $8200 and the price fell to $6000. I am a leveraged trader, so that is how I doubled the account on a 25% move. I should go into detail about how I successfully trade with leverage, but that will be an educational post for another day. I mention this article, because people are going to see my last posts and be like, "YoungShkreli WAS BULLISH AT THE TOP." First off, I am ALWAYS bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom - I only switch my view NEAR the extremes. Catching the extremes is almost impossible and I don't have a strategy to do that that isn't based off of scaling your bets ie dollar-cost averaging (which doesn't count because your average won't be the top or bottom). If I did, I would be a trillionaire. I would be so good in the markets that people would leave. Fortunately (for everyone else) that is not the case.
I simply go with what I see. So, here is what I see now...
If we can close today's candle red, then I will short bitcoin at a small scale (I always scale my bets aka dollar-cost average). I am not necessarily as certain that we will hit 5k as I was last month or maybe two months ago, but I will bet that way because I don't trade based off of what I think or my emotions. I base trades off of a strategy that is based off of minimizing risk and having more upside than downside. If we go to 5k next, then I will get an almost perfect entry even if I don't see it coming. That's THE WHOLE IDEA people: I don't have to be right to make money, I can be wrong A MAJORITY of the time and still make money. This is because my downside is always very small and my upside is very large. Every time I make a trade, my expected value (go look up this stats term) is extremely positive. That's why I make money. I play a game with a high expected value over and over and over again.
So, all in all, this drop isn't that bearish to me absolutely, I wish we fell more because that would make things easier, but oh well. I would not be surprised at all if we got back to $7,500 and I would not be surprised if we go to $0. I can't be surprised. That is what makes me a good trader. I am always prepared for ANYTHING.
Even in the event of a flash crash, I am prepared, how? Because Bitmex offers cross margin. I trade on many exchanges, and Bitmex is one of them. I can use equity from hedged positions to prevent liquidation from other positions. I don't get screwed ever. Ever! Because I am ALWAYS prepared. There is not a single possible circumstance that I am not prepared for (in terms of price).
The one event I am not prepared for is a theft or seizure of my funds, but once I decide how I am going to secure all of my gains, then I will be prepared for that too. Basically, I am planning to gradually take all of my profits off the table (ton of profit tbh) and trade solely with a static account where I take the profits off of every trade and take it offline. This is what the absolute finest traders do, and I will be following their lead on this (look up Ugly Old Goat - he will tell you this is what he does).
I hope you all learned something, maybe this should be an educational post, but I do talk about the current market conditions so I guess it is an analysis.
If I have been helpful, please like my work and follow me, it helps us both.
-YoungShkreli
PS There is so much that I haven't shared with you about how I trade. I haven't even mentioned options for bitcoin ever. Literally ever, and I've been trading options on deribit for quite some time. Most people don't understand options and so there is no real reason for me to talk about it, but I'm just telling you so that you understand that even though I have shared a lot of knowledge, it is practically nothing. I haven't covered how to scale trades, place stops, use leverage, use different options strategies, hedging strategies, create synthetic calls/puts, choose timeframes, backtesting etc. That is why I can offer what I have for free and not feel like a chump :) I also enjoy helping people, so there's that.
PSS I am not the only good trader in crypto. I believe I might be the best trader on TV, but I am not sure. That said, there are many better traders on other platforms. Go search for them. They have taught me almost all that I know. Ugly Old Goat writes INCREDIBLE posts on medium and makes great tweets. I follow Tone Vays and he's okay as well. There are tons of different traders I am always following to see if I can learn from them. The top traders of bitmex (top 25 notional traders) are some of the smartest people in the entire world. Seek them and ye shall find them. You WILL become rich if you learn their ways because they play a game that has a positive expected value - as long as you keep playing, your net worth will keep trending higher.
Note
For those of you who have read whales talk about how they trade OPM - other people's money, this is what they mean. They mean that because trading is a zero-sum game, when you take out your initial investment, you are now only trading with money that came from someone else. By doing this over and over, you are making money OPM. This is very smart and especially when you make enough money, you need to do it so you can guarantee you will still be rich even if your account gets hacked (totally possible). I will be doing this ASAP.Note
inb4 people say they are trading as a fund manager and that's why they are trading OPM, that is seldom the case and so you are wrong. I trade OPM at the moment because I manage a fund, but I am not trading OPM the way they are trading OPM. Hope this makes sense.Note
It's official, YoungShkreli is short form $6920Note
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.