BTC - Longer Term Add to the Portfolio
Updated
Overview:
11-12 Hours ago we issued a longer term buy that was intended for Investors and Longer term position traders at 8464. This is not a short term trade, and is based on the broad market perspective. We have been patiently waiting for months now to add fresh money to our core position. The recent structure, though not a setup for a swing trade, provides an opportunity to accumulate into the 5th wave of the multi year cycle.
This is not a pure trading strategy as explained in the in the article. Short term price movements are considered noise with this strategy. The initial entry was 1/3 of a full position which is similar to who we averaged into the market in August of last year. The other positions will be added upon a pullback or bullish reversal signal. May happen tomorrow or in two weeks, but patience is key for this strategy.
Too many times new investors and traders fail due to not having a strategy and or plan. They are half investing / half trading, and with no stringent guidelines, trades become investments, investments become trades, and portfolios experience erosion.
Technical:
The initial target area is between 12,741 and 13,985 of which 13,985 is the current 1.618 extensions from wave 1. This overlaps with the 0.5 retracement of the overall correction. The higher target area is between 15,768 and 18,491. Either of these levels may signal for us to reduce risk and look to buy the pullback.
There are two major resistance levels to be aware of which are the 11,306 and 14,585 or the 0.382 and 0.618 retrace of the overall correction. Minor resistance is found at 9740.
The broader term picture is still bullish as we enter the fifth wave of a multi year cycle. 18,491 is a significant level in the long term and a level to watch for a failed top and completion of the longer term 5th wave. Keep in mind these are preliminary levels and as the trends and patterns unfold we will revise the levels accordingly.
We have two more positions to add and have provided an overview of where and when those will be added. Simply we are looking for a broad move over a period of 6-8 months and interim price action is simply considered noise.
Summary:
If you are focusing on a 1 hour and 4 hour chart, you are doing yourself an injustice. Even if you are day trading often the focus on short term trends distracts from the broader perspective. I posted the weekly chart here because prior to entering any asset the long term trend and wave cycle is crucial to how I position myself in the short and long term.
11-12 Hours ago we issued a longer term buy that was intended for Investors and Longer term position traders at 8464. This is not a short term trade, and is based on the broad market perspective. We have been patiently waiting for months now to add fresh money to our core position. The recent structure, though not a setup for a swing trade, provides an opportunity to accumulate into the 5th wave of the multi year cycle.
This is not a pure trading strategy as explained in the in the article. Short term price movements are considered noise with this strategy. The initial entry was 1/3 of a full position which is similar to who we averaged into the market in August of last year. The other positions will be added upon a pullback or bullish reversal signal. May happen tomorrow or in two weeks, but patience is key for this strategy.
Too many times new investors and traders fail due to not having a strategy and or plan. They are half investing / half trading, and with no stringent guidelines, trades become investments, investments become trades, and portfolios experience erosion.
Technical:
The initial target area is between 12,741 and 13,985 of which 13,985 is the current 1.618 extensions from wave 1. This overlaps with the 0.5 retracement of the overall correction. The higher target area is between 15,768 and 18,491. Either of these levels may signal for us to reduce risk and look to buy the pullback.
There are two major resistance levels to be aware of which are the 11,306 and 14,585 or the 0.382 and 0.618 retrace of the overall correction. Minor resistance is found at 9740.
The broader term picture is still bullish as we enter the fifth wave of a multi year cycle. 18,491 is a significant level in the long term and a level to watch for a failed top and completion of the longer term 5th wave. Keep in mind these are preliminary levels and as the trends and patterns unfold we will revise the levels accordingly.
We have two more positions to add and have provided an overview of where and when those will be added. Simply we are looking for a broad move over a period of 6-8 months and interim price action is simply considered noise.
Summary:
If you are focusing on a 1 hour and 4 hour chart, you are doing yourself an injustice. Even if you are day trading often the focus on short term trends distracts from the broader perspective. I posted the weekly chart here because prior to entering any asset the long term trend and wave cycle is crucial to how I position myself in the short and long term.
Note
There are many that think Elliott Wave is some kind of crystal ball. Though I have I have explained numerous times in numerous articles that this is the wrong use of Elliott Wave they are stuck that somehow there is some crystal ball indicator that will provide some future weather forecast. Let me be painfully clear THERE'S NOT! #1 EW is subjective to the user.
#2 I look at several EW possibilities, but the chart would be cluttered with a bunch of stuff that does not make sense. I chose the one that I believe in, after all it's my article!
#3 Sentiment moves markets - This is simply a fact. News is convenient when someone is wrong and needs to explain why they were wrong.
#4 For those that are bearish - Bleek actually posted a chart with a theory. He was respectful, I was respectful back. That is how it works in the real world. Difference of opinions and respect for those opinions is supposed to be the purpose of blogging here on TV.
So for those not able to do a chart on their own I provide 4 different Wave patterns 2 bullish 2 bearish. I chose the one I have most confidence in based on other indicators and tools with a longer term perspective. Its up to you to chose which one you believe in. KEEP IN MIND THERE ARE MANY MORE.
The same critics of EW wave theory will point to the "bubble paradigm" not realizing its the same thing. DOHH!!!
Of course there are some that do not actually make calls, just IF THEN statements. I make a call when I actually buy or sell. I post it. If its a winner its a winner, if its a loser its a loser. I'm not scared, I do not run, I do not live in my mum's basement. I own three businesses, and I have been investing for longer than many here have been on God's great earth. (There is no difference between this market and stocks, forex, or commodities, if you have experience in any of these you will know this is true. Trade TVIX or SVXY and see how fast those ETN's move!) Don't move fast enough, short options in TVIX and SVXY. It will make Bitcoin look like grandma in her Mercury Lincoln vs a Mario Andretti in a Lambo.
In simple words I have skin in the game, and I am not afraid to post, "I BOUGHT HERE" it was stopped out. investing and trading is not trying to win every trade, it's about capital preservation or money management.
You will not get "it may rain today if the clouds come out, but if its sunny we will have good weather here" over and over again. I may say, I like horse #1 in the race, but horse #5 looks good to, yet if #7 hits the rail out of the gate he has a chance and then there is horse #6 that has a great jockey and #3's trainer is the best in the world.
When it comes down to post time, I tell you "My money is on horse #1 to win" Done!. Not a bunch of what could happen and then " see I told you #3 had a chance!". There are many that post this stuff. Feel free to follow them.
Note
Yes 5017 is a significant level on my radar, if the current structure breaks down. I will leave it to you to figure out how I got it.Note
I should clarify the "for those that can not draw charts". This was out of line. I am by no means a CMT like MarcPMarkets, and it took me several years to understand EW principles and how to chart them and I still am learning. Originally I to was in denial that sentiment moved markets, but over time that changed. We are all evolving and learning no matter how long we have been in markets, and no matter how large our returns are. For you younger guys out there. Seek to understand, desire to learn something new. As Demming mentioned in his book (which is a must read IMO) "continual improvement". If you want to be a good trader and or investor you should be seeking to learn new ideas, and master a few.
I learned from following others. I spent days sometimes going over charts, trying to figure out how those smarter than I arrived at their conclusions. In the course of this learning I developed my own process for analyzing charts. Right -wrong or indifferent it is an accumulation of knowledge by learning from others.
I continue to learn. If your ego is that big that you feel you know it all, then you should be up there with PTJ. Paul Tudor Jones will tell you he tried every analysis technique. Try something new, look at charts from various angles. You will eventually develop your own technique.
But most importantly be respectful to others. I literally had a sit down come to Jesus with a young employee still in High School who is a good kid, but was disrespectful to the manager and told him "the real world does not work this way, your setting yourself up for failure". You need to get rid of the righteous attitude and find humbleness and eagerness to learn and earn a living.
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