$BTC $32k-37k needs to hold, otherwise $23k-29k is coming.
Updated
I exited all of my crypto positions last night after we lost support at 39.3k. We really needed a bounce there for the structure to hold up and bounce higher. Now we've just printed new lower lows. The reason for exiting here is because now I think there's more risk than reward, so I'd rather sit and watch things play out than have my money sitting in the market if what I'm about to say is a possibility of an outcome.
After zooming out and looking at the chart again, it looks like we've just tested resistance twice at 45k and each time it formed another lower low on higher timeframes (you can see this by looking at the chikou which I've drawn a circle around on the chart).
In the short term (next few days to a week), I could see us either trying to retest and break 43k or testing 45k one more time, but if we reject those regions, then the likelihood increases that we're going to see new lows. The other scenario is that we just roll over, but I lean towards a move up first to convince people we're going higher.
Why do I think we're going to see the 20k region rather than just retesting the low 30ks? Well, if we break 37k which I think is likely because it's already been tested multiple times, then the next area of support is 32k. We've already broken through that 32k region back in May-July and just retested it as support in January, so that support is already weakened. The
29K support has already been tested 3 times from May to July, so that support has weakened as well.
So the most likely scenario to me at this point is that we break through all of those supports and retest the
23K level which hasn't been tested since we've gone up.
Of course, it's not a guarantee. I've listed out numerous things that will need to happen between now and May for this to play out -- we'd need to reject 43k-45k, then lose the 37k support. But if those two things happen, it increases the chances of this idea playing out. Then we'll need to lose the subsequent levels on the chart.
23K is where I'd want to buy a buyer of BTC. Bad news aside, I think that region will be a great spot to buy BTC as we should see a massive bounce after that.
Let's see what happens over the coming weeks.
After zooming out and looking at the chart again, it looks like we've just tested resistance twice at 45k and each time it formed another lower low on higher timeframes (you can see this by looking at the chikou which I've drawn a circle around on the chart).
In the short term (next few days to a week), I could see us either trying to retest and break 43k or testing 45k one more time, but if we reject those regions, then the likelihood increases that we're going to see new lows. The other scenario is that we just roll over, but I lean towards a move up first to convince people we're going higher.
Why do I think we're going to see the 20k region rather than just retesting the low 30ks? Well, if we break 37k which I think is likely because it's already been tested multiple times, then the next area of support is 32k. We've already broken through that 32k region back in May-July and just retested it as support in January, so that support is already weakened. The
29K support has already been tested 3 times from May to July, so that support has weakened as well.So the most likely scenario to me at this point is that we break through all of those supports and retest the
23K level which hasn't been tested since we've gone up.Of course, it's not a guarantee. I've listed out numerous things that will need to happen between now and May for this to play out -- we'd need to reject 43k-45k, then lose the 37k support. But if those two things happen, it increases the chances of this idea playing out. Then we'll need to lose the subsequent levels on the chart.
23K is where I'd want to buy a buyer of BTC. Bad news aside, I think that region will be a great spot to buy BTC as we should see a massive bounce after that.Let's see what happens over the coming weeks.
Note
Starting to question the validity of this idea. I'm still out of the market because I think there's the possibility of a retest of the lows, but I think that if it happens, we're likely to retest 32k, and then continue higher before we see lower prices. I think this idea that I posted a while back is the most likely scenario from here... Will have to see how it plays out over the coming weeks:
Note
The reason I'm still out is largely because the structure of the chart still looks bearish to me and we just retested (and rejected) the 200DMA. Almost every chart I've looked at just shows us rallying into resistance. I think there's more risk to the downside here than there is upside.I'd rather wait until a clearer picture shows itself than trade the chop. The next 2 weeks should give a clearer picture of how things play out.
There's really two scenarios that I'm entertaining:
1. The original idea where we drop to $23-29k (on a break of 32k.)
2. A retest of 32k and then likely 51k (potentially up to
65K before rolling over).3. The last and least likely is that we continue up and break 48k. I think this is the least likely because we're overbought on almost every timeframe and the heikin ashi candles are still indicating a downtrend to me here.
Note
The last possibility that I'll throw it is the original move to $50-51k to trick people we're going higher, and then more downside.But those are all the scenarios I'm seeing right now, will just have to wait and see.
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Found this char that I did a month ago and it seems to be playing out like I had originally thought. Therefore I lean towards this outcome as the base case from here. It makes the most sense from here: 
Note
Okay feeling more confident in this original idea playing out now. Not sure if we see a push up to 51k or not, but I do think BTC will hit the target between 29K-23k.Note
Be very careful here. I still think this idea will play out where we'll get a push to the 20ks over the next month or so. More confirmation, I looked at this old chart I did tracking the downtrend of BTC and we just got a rejection of the 2/1 gann fan (which price needs to hold above to be bullish).Again, I am fully out of my crypto positions and will buy on a move to
23K (for a trade but not for a hold). Good luck.
Note
The move down is starting...Note
Still think the idea will end up playing out but there's a chance it doesn't play out by the end pivot (May 20th or so) and that the pivot then starts the leg down that I'm expecting. Regardless, I'm largely staying out of the market until we see BTC in the 20k range.The bounce to me isn't worth the risk.
Note
First target hit. Let's see if we continue down or bounce here. I'm leaning towards a bounce up to $35-37k before finding a last leg down to 23k. That said, will have to see the price action. I'll create a new chart if we end up bouncing here. Hope this chart saved you some money on that downside.
Note
Target hit. Buying down here.
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