Previous analysis scenarios have played out nicely - the price got a break below the counter-trendline and as expected, the price has slowly decreased the value.
From a technical perspective, BTC price is still above the down trendlines and currently, it is on the major down trendline pulled from 29. November. It should act as pretty strong support and actually, it has proven it already - several bounces upwards but those are small bounces and to make a bigger bounce upwards we need support from altcoins.
From the price structure wise it has still nice and clear higher highs and higher lows which all indicate that the mid-term trend should be upwards but recently is common on the crypto market that everything happens in slow motion.
Currently, the price is still on the potential bounce area:
1. It is on the trendline which acts as a support
2. Fibonacci golden ratio of 62%
3. Old resistances becomes support levels
4. Market structure is on the bullish side with higher highs and higher lows since the beginning of the February
Very nice criteria which all might indicate that we could see a bounce upwards. Now, we need a little bit of support from altcoins and the move upwards should start. Can't promise wide/high movements because as said everything happens in the slow motion but technically it should be okay spot to start another wave upwards.
Another wave downwards may start after we have seen at least 4H candle close below the black trendline - a little bit deeper close, let's say a close below $3,655 (red box is the confirmation area)
SUMMARY: I wait for a small bounce upwards but I'm ready to change my bias IF the price drops inside the red box and if the 4H or 1H candle closes there or below of it.
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*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!