Hot Air - Patience and Rationality
Updated
In 2018 I was pretty sure 6k was our bottom, then the bottom fell out to 3k. A gentlemen here on Tradingview had posted a chart prior to the drop to 3k that said HOT AIR in the space between 3-6k.
I commented on his post, something like, yeah right buddy, It ain’t gonna happen, look at how stable BTC has been at 6k. When it dropped to 3k I got a response from him of something like, Your an idiot, what do you have to say now? Cash me outside, how bout dat.
I’ll never forget this guy, I don’t remember his name, but I was humbled. This guy knew something I didn’t and put it in my face that I was still a baby trader. This post is in honor of him and if he see’s this, I wouldn’t mind another rationality check, should you feel the need. I have watched the BTC/USD charts every day for over 5 years now, along with any significantly related charts like BTC.D, FEDFUNDS, ETH/BTC and so on. I am an extinct GPU miner, I understand computers and operating systems, proof of work, and the tech behind bitcoin better than anyone around me in real life. I was mining with 80 GTX1060s and 48 GTX1070s at my peak in 2017. The 24/7 13 amp load from each rig caused a few fires on commercial 20 amp circuits, the resistance would slowly back the neutral screw out over a period of like 3 months, then arching would start unbeknown to me.
I was always a computer tech, I was never a trader, I hodl bitcoin irrationally, always afraid to sell, no price is ever good enough for me, 20k eh, I’m waiting on 100k. 100k eh, Im waiting on 200k, oh it hit 200k, Im waiting for 500k. I never cared about the time line but I did secretly want it to happen fast, like 2017 fast and most of my charts have reflected that.
Its like every time bitcoin reaches a new all time high It’s a signal that it is indeed capable of going even higher later on, and I just can’t stomach selling into that logarithmic trend that bitcoin has established, so afraid that as soon as I sell anything, its going to blast off and never come back.
Most people commend me for my insane long starting in 2016 but I started thinking this hodl mentality may be working against me in the long run. I would watch highs and lows go by over and over, bear flag, bull flag! BART! Bull ru…. Its over, bear claw.
I started noticing patterns in alt coins which I later identified as Wyckoff, oh wow, someone else noticed them before me. I saw how much I could have flipped my bitcoin stack into and was rather down about not having the knowledge or balls to do it, so I continued to hodl every Satoshi.
I would see fractals over and over, I started seeing these patterns on all charts, and exploring their meanings all the while, still not trading, just watching. I would post charts here of my mostly irrational ideas, just so I could go back and see how right or wrong I was. I tested myself against the markets without putting my beloved bitcoin in, proving to myself I shouldn’t be trading as I got the calls wrong. It took me years and years to trust my own calls or give advice to close friends.
These days are different, I am trading but not often I don’t make a lot of charts, I pay attention to other analysts and put all the their information together to form a general direction of where I think the market is heading. I use moving averages as a general reference of trading range, I use volume profiles, and I mostly stay on the logarithmic chart, playing the long game.
I held 80 LUNA a few weeks ago, I sold them into BUSD at $89, this was based on the market structure, LUNAs double top and downtrend that formed immediately after. I had no clue that LUNA was about to dump harder than bitconnect yesterday and when it did, I just laughed like wow, Im finally making calls Im proud of. It was a small miracle I even had that much in LUNA in the first place, as I’m not big on alts but noticed it moving against BTC earlier in the year and capitalized on that.
I have tried to use all the knowledge here given to me by guys like goldbug1 filbfilb The_black_swan TradingShot BTCINVESTING MartyBoots and so many more I’m forgetting, and apply that knowledge to making good decisions in my trading, which has been really hard for me honestly, even with all the amazing knowledge shared by these guys, you still have to trust yourself to do this.
Youtube has been a great tool for gathering knowledge and perspective as well from guys like, Ben Cowen, Altcoin Daily, Andreas Antonopoulos, Barely Sociable, George, Alex Becker, Lex Fridman, Mike Saylor and so on, all of their opinions and perspectives have been of great value to me while trying to navigate these markets in the past few years.
I would like to close this post out by saying this is how I am moving forward, Im still to scared to sell my bitcoin, but I am a trader now, I have skin in the game and Im going to continue to try and become a better trader through patience not by trying to time the markets. I wait for the markets to present the opportunity and then have the confidence in myself to act on it.
This entire post was really to honor the people who have schooled me in this, It took me 4 years of watching to come into the markets with confidence and even now, I consider myself just graduated from baby trader, to toddler. This chart is not to be followed, its an idea and likely one of my bad ones, but I thought it interesting to compare the 2019 - 2020 downtrend and covid capitulation with our current situation. i expect bitcoin will bring maximum pain as it always does before moving up again.
I commented on his post, something like, yeah right buddy, It ain’t gonna happen, look at how stable BTC has been at 6k. When it dropped to 3k I got a response from him of something like, Your an idiot, what do you have to say now? Cash me outside, how bout dat.
I’ll never forget this guy, I don’t remember his name, but I was humbled. This guy knew something I didn’t and put it in my face that I was still a baby trader. This post is in honor of him and if he see’s this, I wouldn’t mind another rationality check, should you feel the need. I have watched the BTC/USD charts every day for over 5 years now, along with any significantly related charts like BTC.D, FEDFUNDS, ETH/BTC and so on. I am an extinct GPU miner, I understand computers and operating systems, proof of work, and the tech behind bitcoin better than anyone around me in real life. I was mining with 80 GTX1060s and 48 GTX1070s at my peak in 2017. The 24/7 13 amp load from each rig caused a few fires on commercial 20 amp circuits, the resistance would slowly back the neutral screw out over a period of like 3 months, then arching would start unbeknown to me.
I was always a computer tech, I was never a trader, I hodl bitcoin irrationally, always afraid to sell, no price is ever good enough for me, 20k eh, I’m waiting on 100k. 100k eh, Im waiting on 200k, oh it hit 200k, Im waiting for 500k. I never cared about the time line but I did secretly want it to happen fast, like 2017 fast and most of my charts have reflected that.
Its like every time bitcoin reaches a new all time high It’s a signal that it is indeed capable of going even higher later on, and I just can’t stomach selling into that logarithmic trend that bitcoin has established, so afraid that as soon as I sell anything, its going to blast off and never come back.
Most people commend me for my insane long starting in 2016 but I started thinking this hodl mentality may be working against me in the long run. I would watch highs and lows go by over and over, bear flag, bull flag! BART! Bull ru…. Its over, bear claw.
I started noticing patterns in alt coins which I later identified as Wyckoff, oh wow, someone else noticed them before me. I saw how much I could have flipped my bitcoin stack into and was rather down about not having the knowledge or balls to do it, so I continued to hodl every Satoshi.
I would see fractals over and over, I started seeing these patterns on all charts, and exploring their meanings all the while, still not trading, just watching. I would post charts here of my mostly irrational ideas, just so I could go back and see how right or wrong I was. I tested myself against the markets without putting my beloved bitcoin in, proving to myself I shouldn’t be trading as I got the calls wrong. It took me years and years to trust my own calls or give advice to close friends.
These days are different, I am trading but not often I don’t make a lot of charts, I pay attention to other analysts and put all the their information together to form a general direction of where I think the market is heading. I use moving averages as a general reference of trading range, I use volume profiles, and I mostly stay on the logarithmic chart, playing the long game.
I held 80 LUNA a few weeks ago, I sold them into BUSD at $89, this was based on the market structure, LUNAs double top and downtrend that formed immediately after. I had no clue that LUNA was about to dump harder than bitconnect yesterday and when it did, I just laughed like wow, Im finally making calls Im proud of. It was a small miracle I even had that much in LUNA in the first place, as I’m not big on alts but noticed it moving against BTC earlier in the year and capitalized on that.
I have tried to use all the knowledge here given to me by guys like goldbug1 filbfilb The_black_swan TradingShot BTCINVESTING MartyBoots and so many more I’m forgetting, and apply that knowledge to making good decisions in my trading, which has been really hard for me honestly, even with all the amazing knowledge shared by these guys, you still have to trust yourself to do this.
Youtube has been a great tool for gathering knowledge and perspective as well from guys like, Ben Cowen, Altcoin Daily, Andreas Antonopoulos, Barely Sociable, George, Alex Becker, Lex Fridman, Mike Saylor and so on, all of their opinions and perspectives have been of great value to me while trying to navigate these markets in the past few years.
I would like to close this post out by saying this is how I am moving forward, Im still to scared to sell my bitcoin, but I am a trader now, I have skin in the game and Im going to continue to try and become a better trader through patience not by trying to time the markets. I wait for the markets to present the opportunity and then have the confidence in myself to act on it.
This entire post was really to honor the people who have schooled me in this, It took me 4 years of watching to come into the markets with confidence and even now, I consider myself just graduated from baby trader, to toddler. This chart is not to be followed, its an idea and likely one of my bad ones, but I thought it interesting to compare the 2019 - 2020 downtrend and covid capitulation with our current situation. i expect bitcoin will bring maximum pain as it always does before moving up again.
Note
Hot air has been released
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.