BTC possibility
Now we all know there is nothing worst than being a bear in a bull market...so let's not jump to a conclusion, but this is an interesting possibility that could happen. I already published a similar analysis back in June when I was calling this rally with a target set at 58k originally. Now short term, I am looking at 54k, as I previously stated few times, after the current whipsaw at 46 k, which gave a false bear signal, 54k is the next target. I am a strong believer in the Elliott Wave theory, so here is my analysis of the current situation compared to the wave 2 correction back in 2019 after the first wave. In May, we experienced the top of the 3rd wave, and we have currently finished the 4th wave correction or....we may still be in the correction. As Elliott thoroughly explained, after an impulsive wave, the market experience a corrective wave, which can be complex or simple. Back in 2019, we have seen a classic zig-zag ABC correction...so could we be in wave B of the 4th wave (correction), possibly a flat. Now zig-zag formations are usually divided in a 5-3-5 wave. You can see that back in 19 if you zoom in. The flat formation is divided into 3-3-5 waves. We have seen a 3 waves correction in may, and now I can count a 3 wave in the current rally. If that is the case, the 0.786 fib level is the target which sits exactly at 54 k. Now we cannot just jump to conclusions, but we have to wait for different confirmations. Back in 2019, BTC formed a similar channel in wave B than the one we are seeing in the current rally. In 2019 was a channel; the current is an ascending wedge. So first, we have to see a clear break of the lower boundary of the wedge. That will be the sign that profit must be taken. Then the strong support will kick in at 41 k, which was the break of the accumulation channel. If this support is broken, this theory explained here will apply, and I will turn short-term bearish, eyeing 19 k. Now, why 19k? Back in 2019, the wave C correction went all the way down to touch and created a whipsaw on the weekly 200 MA and touching the 1.272 fib extension. So now we can expect a similar pattern to repeat, flirting with the weekly 200 MA and finding support anywhere between the 1 and 1.272 fib extension (22k - 19k). Creepily enough, this is also the normal target support/bottom for a wave 4 corrective move after a normal extended impulsive wave 3. Wave 3 was overextended flirting with the 2 fib extension level, which we can usually expect a retracement to the 0.238 fib level of wave 3 (current button). So there are many coincidences...However, how can we play it safe? First of all, learn not to be greedy and be prepared to take profits along the way. As I previously stated, I will eye 54k for a possible partial exit (up to 50%). To be sure, I will wait for the break of the lower boundary of the current wedge, penetration of 50 MA and the formation of a lower low. Then I will look at 40 k for entry back into the market. If this support does not hold, then I will exit 100% and wait for a beautiful re-entry at 20k, and trust me, there you will be set for life. The bullish view will materialise if we find support above the all-time high or if we have a retracement and a clear bounce at the 40k. Either way, I am long term BULLISH which means I believe by next February, BTC will be at least 120k, with my original final target set at 185k. So the move above described if IF is going to happen in the next 3 months, it will be a huge shakeout. But for the moment, let's wait for 54 k and see how the crowd will respond. That level is critical, a lot of people are underwater, and they want to cover their losses from the previous peak, and a lot of people will look into taking profit from this recent rally. SO ALWAYS BE PREPARED. I do apologise if the chart seems overcrowded, but I should make a video to explain it properly. However, there is a lot to take in, and I tried to be as descriptive I could to help you understand.
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