BagHODLers

Updated

Looks like we choose the wrong market to get involved in.

"The sharper the move up the slower the downfall". Might be some truth to that...
Sure, "simple people" got extra excited and a huge adrenaline rush 1 year ago, but after 1 year, the chemicals left their bodies?
Are these "simple people like you and me that drive a tractor" so "simple and down to earth" that it takes XXtra long for their mind to process information.

AAAAAH I CAN'T TAKE THE WAITING ANYMORE SOMEONE HUG ME AND TELL ME EVERYTHING WILL BE ALLRIGHT BAGHOLDERS WILL GTFO A MARKET THEY DON'T BELONG TOO AND VOLATILITY WILL COME BACK.

Ps: I would wait 50+ years until the day I die before I go long on Bitcoin 0.72% if I have to, I have other things to trade meanwhile, but BagHODLers put all their money in this one thing and are stuck due to low 'IQ , let's see who loses patience first.

A shame... only asset I can trade and have negative fees (as mm on bitmex ).

Note

The % moves are irrelevant what matters is the relative waves.

So I was checking these parabolic moves, and I noted that crypto mcap went up 700% from 100 billion up to 800 bil. So up 700b.

Hang Seng went up 18% of 4 Trillion usd which is 700b.

I am busy backtesting my strategy with a small tweak to it right now, but I wonder if there is some kind of illuminati link here...

Nasdaq o.0 Did I make a mistake somewhere this cannot be real.

Note

When I started posting on trading view, my first trades were flags.
Any complete noob that just traded those would have made alot of money.

Maybe crypto has to stop moving because it became too easy to profit from it?
Is it this easy because big money is not trading it? Count me in!
Any other markets easy like this? Maybe small cap stocks small country economies.. Well no I think the combo of alot of traders (enough participant to make randomness almost totally disappear) yet not enough volume to interest the big players, is what is required.

People are saying this is dangerous etc but it really seems the best market for beginners idk. Not if they go al in no stop loss of course but that's just so dumb. Bets market for non retarded beginners then.

A break is imminent. 2 weeks max before a major move I can say with high certainty.

Note

Price is moving a little.
A pump & dump would be nice.

The past 2 months have been so non interesting in crypto.
No price movement, no fundamental news...

I miss cocky new traders about to blow up, could we at least get some of these?
There might be some on forums still have not checked.
Well I guess the twitter "guru's" qualify.
Where have they gone? No volatility no cocky new trading legends popping out?
There will be back I can guarentee pretty much 100%, such people have been reported to exist back in the 1930's lol. Giving great advice on how the stocks bottomed out when they were down 25%.

Making fun of people that lose everything is cruel, but it's just so funny.
I would love for the price to really rally and some cocky noobs like Lord Ashdrake to appear "dance on the graves" of the bulls and all that stuff then get obliterated and send PM's to their followers asking for a little financial help to get back in the game XD

Ignorant buyers are being really arrogant how they tell anyone that shows any kind of skeptism they just did not do their research or they are just bitter about losing money.

The balance of the universe DEMANDS for the bagholders to get crushed.
The balance of the universe DEMANDS for the cocky bears to get crushed.

So is this why the price is stuck and neither going up or down?
(Or just price manipulation lol)

Since both groups HAVE to be wrecked, the universe might choose to move sharply in 1 direction, followed by a sharp move in another.

The universe fragile balance has to be restored.

If crypto spikes up, it will probably show signs of reversal for those that know how to look (yes such as me, hopefully).

Note

I remember when every one had a tiny Nokia 15 years ago and they were these awesome tiny phones...
People were losing their minds over Nokia phones, and this includes investors.
People would physically assault anyone that said anything bad about Nokia , this company would change the world for the better we would all have flying cars etc.
EVERY ONE was crazy about Nokia. I didn't really care. I was not cool. Boring kid.
I used to be the only boring one lifting weights too... now every one and their mother does it... I hate it XD I did it before it was cool!
Ye 15 years later where are they?
In the past 10 years I did not have A SINGLE PERSON come and tell me he used to love and believe in Nokia.
People are only vocal when they end up being right. 99.99% are wrong, and never say a single word.

I was not an investor back then I did not even know i could be one.
It is very important to observe and listen and notice.

So I checked their charts, and it looks exactly like the Bitcoin chart, it is crazy.
It is hard to compare bubbles, we rarely have precise charts, and also the vast majority of bubbles are not on trading view: no one cares about them.
But every single, and I mean every single bubble was extremely popular at its high (that's why they were bubbles), so it would be very useful for GOOD traders (so less than 10%) to watch these charts to get more than a vague generic idea of what it looks like. Since every one is obssessed with the current bubble and could not care less about the past ones, I do not think we will ever see this unless I make my own site or something.

Conclusion:
Always remember the strong possibility of Bitcoin and Apple to not be "cool" anymore in 10 years.
I could make a list of hundreds of things that used to be "super cool" and you were cast out of society if you did not follow like the rest if the sheeple, that are now today "boring old crap" :)
Maybe I will... If I find something already done on google I'll just check the list and then copy paste.

Note

It has been a year since people at my workplace first asked me if I had heard about crypto currency if I had any and if I knew there were other crypto's than Bitcoin.
That is when the crazy herd movement happened. The laggards.
Not much has happened actually price wise. 1 rally, 1 crash. The interest and money in the crypto market slowly going down. No one is interested in buying, we have just been getting lowest high after lowest high. No one is interested in selling either.
But in that year alot has happened in people's lives. People have gone into depression after investing all of their money into crypto and losing more than 25% of their life savings. When they came back they just weren't the same, so calm, so beaten up. They were very joyful before so I guess it evens out.
For my part I finally quit my job, waste of time and boring, I would rather keep looking at charts all day long.

And we sure had alot of interesting stories.
During that year I learned people were willing to pay other people acting as experts to draw troll charts and tell them the price of crypto currencies would go up and what shitcoin would be next to go to the moon. I saw many of these experts draw Elliot Waves where (3) was the smallest. It actually happens often. Quite amazing.

Also amazing, totally unrelated to markets, but during this same year I found out some people were giving money to people telling them that caloric restriction is a myth, that sugar and society was the reason they were fat, and that they could eat as much lard butter and chips as they wanted AND would lose weight and feel great because of some anecdotal evidences and because people thousands of years ago ate low carb and high fat and had very little heart diseases when life expectancy was 17 years old.

I spent a small part of the year making small profits with crypto, and most of it waiting for BTC to end up in my long area, but really spending most of the time looking at Forex and a little bit stocks.

It has been 1 year now. Surely the emotional high of bulls that bought late at only 6000 or that got in early 2017 has almost totally faded and is approaching the point where they are just going to get out?
Since few people are interested in investing we can either keep staying flat, or fall. I really do not want to keep flat. I have identified reversal zones and I want to see if I am right and after all that waiting I just know it will happen while I am not able to access a computer for a while...

If I can I will post the reversal points as price is approching them with the right conditions.

Crypto is at a resistance now, maybe it rallies...?
I feel betrayed. It gets you in its world with the volatility, and once you are here, it just stops.

I am looking at EURNZD (only) today, if the price gets to 1.69 with the right conditions I'll be looking to go long, maybe I should post about this?
I am looking at stocks correlations, see which ones I could add to my watchlist, widen my area of interest which is just BTC + ETH + DowJones + a whole lot of FX pairs, a few indices and commodities. It is alot yes, but I stick to my one and only countertrend strategy which has worked over and over in many markets.
Let me know if you are interested in the comment section.
I looked at other strategies lately for educational reasons and curiosity, I even posted about an inside bar setup which I like but probably won't be using for the next years as I have my hands full with my 1 strategy, but I am planning on releasing a script alerting of inside bar breaks in the direction of the trend when the momentum is very strong.
Let me know if you are interested here too...

Note

Money is sneakilly entering the market. Might not be visible with BTC, but I know, I know.

Maybe a little alt pump, followed by moving that into BTC, then global dump.
Would be a shame if we did not visit the trendline, we are so close now.

Ponzis bcash and xrp have been pumping. Going to be time to move that to BTC and then sell eventually.

Bitcon resistances are 6800 & 7400. I will probably short @ 7400.

Note

Why is it that when I roast dumb money that FOMO'ed in their top argument is "you're mad that you missed out" XD
Do they see the irony?
M4*2 if your highest concern is whether someone missed out or not and that's all you can think about, you're probably doing it wrong.
I missed out on Oil 2 days ago, I guess my life is over.

Also, don't be emotionally attached... That's what dumb money does.

Just a couple more weeks to go at most before trendline is reached.
We should bounce, but this time we will end up going below imo.

Note

For bagh0dlers now is a painful time. But do you know for who we are not living in painful times?
BIG Miners.
I already posted about this and made some estimates.
Well now we have real numbers.

Hut 8 Corp. which is the bigest public miner released their quarterly results.
They had their best quarter ever. They released record revenues. The price is too low for little miners to participate. The price means that the mining difficulty is just at the exact level for big corporations to have it cheap and easy but it being too hard for little miners.
This quarter, Hut 8 mined 2000 Bitcoins at a cost of 3400$ per Bitcoin. Funny, that's about where my support target was without knowing the miners costs.

Of course, as suspected, they are holding onto these Bitcoins. What could possibly go wrong?

Note

My bad, Bitmain released their financial statement, did not know.

Here are some of Bitmain’s financial highlights:
Profit rose almost ninefold to $742.7 million in the first half from a year earlier Revenue rose about 10-fold to $2.8 billion in same period Adjusted return on equity of 58.9% Bitmain held $886.9 million of cryptocurrency assets at the end of June.

I know that 656250 BTC were added in the past year because this is how it works, but did not know how much big miners were holding.
I also know that when the price goes down costs get much lower for miners.

Ok so I will assume Bitmain has over 1 billion by now, maybe 150 to 200k BTC.
Bitmain hashrate has fluctuated from 30% to a little over 50% (51% ;}), and other miners I checked hold onto some Bitcoin in the same way.

So we could assume BIG mining companies hold from 150.000 to 500.000 Bitcoins, possibly more.

Remember how the price dropped 1500$ (15-20%) in less than an hour when someone dumped simultaneously 5000 BTC on Bitfinex, Okex and Bitmex?
Let's say in total 25.000 to have some margin in our estimate.

As far as I know 500.000 is much much more than 25.000. 20 times more.

I wonder what could go wrong?

Note

If you are wondering why I am still posting about crypto but not currently trading it (not until it got 8000 or 5500 or 3500), this is why :D
You really sure about wanting to trade crypto now? Can't be that hard opening

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ZZZZ trading view

Note

"Ponzis are recognizable by the difficulty to pull your money out of them, it is always very hard and takes a long time to get your money out".

"For Bitfinex Users, Dollar Withdrawals Are Now a Weeks-Long Struggle"

"I am still waiting for my money – 17 business days after the event," one customer, Jamie West, told CoinDesk Wednesday. "They even had the cheek to charge £309 for 24-hour express service,"

"At least a few customers have given up on fiat withdrawals, canceling them and in some cases taking their money out of Bitfinex using cryptocurrency instead.

A customer going by k_stoyanov posted a long narrative to Reddit, describing a three-week wait for their money (including correspondence with Crypto Capital). In the end, according to a follow-up post, they'd withdrawn the money in bitcoin, sent it to Kraken, and withdrawn euros from that exchange."

Bitconnnneeeeect!
Bitfineeeeeeessed!

Note

And once again there are more longs than short (on bitfinex)
Every time short go up, bulls use it as proof that the price will go up so when they drop this means the price will drop, oh nevermind when this happens they also use it as proof that the price will go up "bears are capitulating". Cringe.

Keep an eye open when insiders are suddenly spiking their number of shorts XD

MrRenev

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