Hello Traders! Here is my analysis for BTCUSD.
** I'm sure most of you really want to know which direction BTC is headed... Is BTC Bullish or Bearish. We are going to answer that today.
Following the FOMC meeting today, BTC had a nice little rally. If you recall I stated in my last BTC post that it was possible BTC got a bounce to $40K, which is the exact level it hit. For anyone new to crypto, today was a perfect example of how particular news can greatly affect markets.
*****IMPORTANT NOTE*****
- Keep in mind the rally today was based off the news and was not a "technical" bounce. If BTC made this move without any news today I would be slightly more bullish on BTC for the short term. But the way I see it, the move today was a result of the news and made BTC look more Bullish than it is.
So does the rally today mean that BTC is Bullish?!
- No... BTC is still overall Bearish. Keep in mind that even during Bear cycles, the market can have melt your face off rallies.
- One of the common mistakes new traders make is they will see BTC have a rally like today and think "wow BTC must've reversed from bearish to bullish!"
How do we know BTC is still Bearish?
- If you take a look at my chart, on the far right I've split the chart in two and labeled "Micro Bearish & Micro Bullish" These are the dividing levels.
- Anything below $43K is Bearish, anything above $43K is Micro Bullish giving BTC the chance to retest the Bear Flag resistance at $50K.
- BTC is still Bearish for several reasons..
1) Has not confirmed above the "Falling Wedge Resistance"
2) Has not confirmed above the yellow "Ascending Trend Line"
3) Has not broken the local high at $43K
4) For nearly a month BTC has been creating lower lows and higher lows
5) BTC is hovering around the $37.5K support and failing to break any meaningful resistance
- As you can see BTC is doing nothing but printing Bearish signals and has yet to give us any meaningful Bullish signals in the past 2 weeks.
**An important thing to keep in mind is that any "Bullish" move that BTC makes up to $43K is considered a corrective move and is not a reversal. BTC could rally straight up to $43K, but not break it and would still be considered Bearish.
What's the next move for BTC?
- My prior analysis still stands so feel free to check that out for more details on where BTC is headed in the longer term.
- It's possible BTC could have a small continuation rally to $40.4K to the "Ascending trend line". It would need to confirm above before it could try at $43K. However I think that any price action above
41K is a low probability
- BTC is still in the process of breaking down from the Macro Bear Flag, BTC should continue this process over the comings days / weeks.
- Keep in mind BTC could hover and consolidate at this level for several days or more before making the next move down.
- The next target price of $34.4K is still valid and am expecting BTC to hit the level in the short term.
How am I trading this?
- Personally, I took several trades over the past few days. I will try and make a post tomorrow regarding my trades and any potential trade setups.
- I entered a BTC short today at $40K and will continue to add to the position if price moves up. The target for this short is the $34.4K level.
- I would be cautious taking any longs considering most cryptos rallied 15%- 25%.
Thanks everyone, remember you can alway message me or comment if you have any questions. Best of luck trading!
** I'm sure most of you really want to know which direction BTC is headed... Is BTC Bullish or Bearish. We are going to answer that today.
Following the FOMC meeting today, BTC had a nice little rally. If you recall I stated in my last BTC post that it was possible BTC got a bounce to $40K, which is the exact level it hit. For anyone new to crypto, today was a perfect example of how particular news can greatly affect markets.
*****IMPORTANT NOTE*****
- Keep in mind the rally today was based off the news and was not a "technical" bounce. If BTC made this move without any news today I would be slightly more bullish on BTC for the short term. But the way I see it, the move today was a result of the news and made BTC look more Bullish than it is.
So does the rally today mean that BTC is Bullish?!
- No... BTC is still overall Bearish. Keep in mind that even during Bear cycles, the market can have melt your face off rallies.
- One of the common mistakes new traders make is they will see BTC have a rally like today and think "wow BTC must've reversed from bearish to bullish!"
How do we know BTC is still Bearish?
- If you take a look at my chart, on the far right I've split the chart in two and labeled "Micro Bearish & Micro Bullish" These are the dividing levels.
- Anything below $43K is Bearish, anything above $43K is Micro Bullish giving BTC the chance to retest the Bear Flag resistance at $50K.
- BTC is still Bearish for several reasons..
1) Has not confirmed above the "Falling Wedge Resistance"
2) Has not confirmed above the yellow "Ascending Trend Line"
3) Has not broken the local high at $43K
4) For nearly a month BTC has been creating lower lows and higher lows
5) BTC is hovering around the $37.5K support and failing to break any meaningful resistance
- As you can see BTC is doing nothing but printing Bearish signals and has yet to give us any meaningful Bullish signals in the past 2 weeks.
**An important thing to keep in mind is that any "Bullish" move that BTC makes up to $43K is considered a corrective move and is not a reversal. BTC could rally straight up to $43K, but not break it and would still be considered Bearish.
What's the next move for BTC?
- My prior analysis still stands so feel free to check that out for more details on where BTC is headed in the longer term.
- It's possible BTC could have a small continuation rally to $40.4K to the "Ascending trend line". It would need to confirm above before it could try at $43K. However I think that any price action above
41K is a low probability- BTC is still in the process of breaking down from the Macro Bear Flag, BTC should continue this process over the comings days / weeks.
- Keep in mind BTC could hover and consolidate at this level for several days or more before making the next move down.
- The next target price of $34.4K is still valid and am expecting BTC to hit the level in the short term.
How am I trading this?
- Personally, I took several trades over the past few days. I will try and make a post tomorrow regarding my trades and any potential trade setups.
- I entered a BTC short today at $40K and will continue to add to the position if price moves up. The target for this short is the $34.4K level.
- I would be cautious taking any longs considering most cryptos rallied 15%- 25%.
Thanks everyone, remember you can alway message me or comment if you have any questions. Best of luck trading!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.