Be Very Careful of This 'Breakout'
Bitcoin has seemingly broken out of its consolidation on the 27th of March and now 'appears' to have successfully retested the breakout level @ 44500 with the breakout target between 54500 and 55000. However, in my humble opinion this simply looks too 'obvious'. The overall Daily trend is still bearish and some major levels of support remains untested. My suspicion is that we will see price make a new high somewhere just above the Daily 200 SMA and swing high from this week. This will effectively liquidate a lot of shorts and also entice new longs. But once the imbalance at the 49000 level is taken, I can see big sellers stepping in driving price back to the monthly pivot @ 43500 and likely even back below 40k to ~39000. From here we will see what happens but chances are the high would be in and the breakout invalidated.
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