BitcoinShort
We're Back to Crashing?
After a week of thrashing about after breaking out of the descending wedge making several possible patterns, we had settled into an apparent symmetrical triangle (orange) containing most of the range from the week.
About 24h ago, the bottom started getting pushed on, but was holding out quite well around 8400. So well in fact, and at such cost, that I was honestly surprised to see it all just fall apart this dramatically.
What we've now made instead is a sharp descending channel (white). As I type this, we've bounced to the top of the channel at ~8200. If we break out soon, we look like we'll be back on track to rally towards the top of the correction downtrend channel on a higher low.
If we don't break out of it soon, it will bring us to a retest of the 2015 weekly rally Fib line at 7690. Last time we were there, we took several stabs at it and then broke down. It also brings us to a very important downtrend support line defined by the Feb and March lows at roughly the same height. That's a lot of support and probably the next place down to attempt a long position on the hope that we're breaking the crash pattern.
I think this sets up a pretty straightforward short down to the bottom of the channel with a reversal to long if at any point it breaks out. 7690 is the obvious short-term target if we keep channeling down. After that, we'll have to see whether we've narrowed the pattern into something more bullish or not and if we can break up. If not, ~7200 was the previous low and we're broadly looking at scenarios where we have to treat this week's run as a lower high in the midst of a continuing crash pattern, so at a guess we'd just be looking at various important levels - I see 6600, 6000, and 5400 at least, and in a proper crash pattern scenario the ultimate floor could be further down but we'd be unlikely to reach it without more bouncing around.
Another thing to add to all of this - BTCUSDLONGS and BTCUSDSHORTS have been reaching ATHs. A lot more of the volume in this market is leveraged than it used to be, which is potentially extraordinarily bearish if we keep crashing because it means there's fewer people spending more money trading BTC around rather than growing volume through new organic investment. It also means that the swings, when they happen, will be more dramatic due to squeezes on leveraged shorts and longs.
I'm an amateur and you should definitely not consider this financial advice. I'd appreciate any feedback.
About 24h ago, the bottom started getting pushed on, but was holding out quite well around 8400. So well in fact, and at such cost, that I was honestly surprised to see it all just fall apart this dramatically.
What we've now made instead is a sharp descending channel (white). As I type this, we've bounced to the top of the channel at ~8200. If we break out soon, we look like we'll be back on track to rally towards the top of the correction downtrend channel on a higher low.
If we don't break out of it soon, it will bring us to a retest of the 2015 weekly rally Fib line at 7690. Last time we were there, we took several stabs at it and then broke down. It also brings us to a very important downtrend support line defined by the Feb and March lows at roughly the same height. That's a lot of support and probably the next place down to attempt a long position on the hope that we're breaking the crash pattern.
I think this sets up a pretty straightforward short down to the bottom of the channel with a reversal to long if at any point it breaks out. 7690 is the obvious short-term target if we keep channeling down. After that, we'll have to see whether we've narrowed the pattern into something more bullish or not and if we can break up. If not, ~7200 was the previous low and we're broadly looking at scenarios where we have to treat this week's run as a lower high in the midst of a continuing crash pattern, so at a guess we'd just be looking at various important levels - I see 6600, 6000, and 5400 at least, and in a proper crash pattern scenario the ultimate floor could be further down but we'd be unlikely to reach it without more bouncing around.
Another thing to add to all of this - BTCUSDLONGS and BTCUSDSHORTS have been reaching ATHs. A lot more of the volume in this market is leveraged than it used to be, which is potentially extraordinarily bearish if we keep crashing because it means there's fewer people spending more money trading BTC around rather than growing volume through new organic investment. It also means that the swings, when they happen, will be more dramatic due to squeezes on leveraged shorts and longs.
I'm an amateur and you should definitely not consider this financial advice. I'd appreciate any feedback.
My volatility-based indicators are available for sale at SharkCharts.live
Feel free to reach out to me with any questions; more information is available on the SharkCharts website and the SharkCharts discord discord.gg/YVpTeSK
Feel free to reach out to me with any questions; more information is available on the SharkCharts website and the SharkCharts discord discord.gg/YVpTeSK
My volatility-based indicators are available for sale at SharkCharts.live
Feel free to reach out to me with any questions; more information is available on the SharkCharts website and the SharkCharts discord discord.gg/YVpTeSK
Feel free to reach out to me with any questions; more information is available on the SharkCharts website and the SharkCharts discord discord.gg/YVpTeSK
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