BTC - 61.8% structure now in action
Hello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Chart pattern to watch for: - short term
Below is the possibility of a Bearish pennant.
Bullish Pattern to spot:
Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view.
1. Zone 1:
The daily zone is where price will be looking at a test of the order block based on how the mark flows between imbalances to create the range. The current week has seen a sharp outflow of movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of $42,000. This redistribution of wealth is the transfer from impatient to patient buyers, liquidity to show bears opportunities to 'shake' Bitcoin wallets out to create a new engineered low.
2. Exactly the same development but making further lows to around $37,000 - $39,000. This zone will be a 'full retrace' upon a daily Fibonacci standpoint, however this is where the imbalance lies.
3. The true imbalance remains at $28,000 [using the monthly]. - see BTC VS yields for this information.
Monthly Imbalances
Below are the monthly imbalances, where price has now created a monthly imbalance using the close of the high.
Price has created a nice area which has broken down to the weekly imbalance zone [see weekly chart].
The main structure here is dependant of the pivot points upon the price closing in the zone where BTC can retest the monthly highs, creating a lower high.
The probability of these occur where price breaks using the Fibonacci rules as a second strategy.
Here is the probable paths where price can show
Fibonacci rules are still in formation on the weekly chart:
The structure is in a corrective phase here where the imbalance created will now offer an opportunity for buyers to look at the fractal zones where imbalance wicks align nicely at 61.8%. If looking to buy, confirm the buy is active with confirmation. Or simply wait the next liquidity spike to the next imbalance. align the timeframes together and the imbalances will become clearer.
Daily chart
Here is the current price chart for the daily price chart with the Fibonacci applied.
The current price is testing the 61.8% retracement, the price also seems to find it's reversion (pivot point) at the 70.5% retracement*
Caveat:
The price will not always use this is a reversion point, price will use probability before falling to the monthly imbalance.
16 hour chart
Here is the 16hour imbalances which breakdown the imbalances to show in a smaller trading session - this timeframe removes further noise and solidifies the inefficient imbalance of the supply and demand strategy.
The eight hour Fibonacci is complete
Now what is happening?
This aligns with the bigger picture using the weekly and monthly.
BTC VS VIX
The Volatility index is always an interesting measure, where the Vix [see separate analysis for full breakdown]
Screenshot below to show the monthly relationship of the price closing.
The volume profile added to the Vix shows here where;
orange = value area up
Blue = value area down
*showing the buyers, sellers upon the imbalance of the newly all time high.
As described on the chart - the key zone here is the correction which aligns on the 2 week imbalance rectangle where price can revert to to provide a key positional move upwards to continue the buyers imbalance.
US Treasury volatility - not to be ignored by Crypto:
Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence.
Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the indexes also which will impact the imbalances of Crypto currencies.
BTC vs ETH:
Notice the imbalance pattern?
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
- Blue = Monthly
- Purple = weekly
- Red = 4 Days
- Yellow = 16 Hours
- Orange = Daily
- Dark Green = 8 Hour
- Grey = 4hour
- Pink = 1 hour
Chart pattern to watch for: - short term
Below is the possibility of a Bearish pennant.
Bullish Pattern to spot:
Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view.
1. Zone 1:
The daily zone is where price will be looking at a test of the order block based on how the mark flows between imbalances to create the range. The current week has seen a sharp outflow of movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of $42,000. This redistribution of wealth is the transfer from impatient to patient buyers, liquidity to show bears opportunities to 'shake' Bitcoin wallets out to create a new engineered low.
2. Exactly the same development but making further lows to around $37,000 - $39,000. This zone will be a 'full retrace' upon a daily Fibonacci standpoint, however this is where the imbalance lies.
3. The true imbalance remains at $28,000 [using the monthly]. - see BTC VS yields for this information.
Monthly Imbalances
Below are the monthly imbalances, where price has now created a monthly imbalance using the close of the high.
Price has created a nice area which has broken down to the weekly imbalance zone [see weekly chart].
The main structure here is dependant of the pivot points upon the price closing in the zone where BTC can retest the monthly highs, creating a lower high.
The probability of these occur where price breaks using the Fibonacci rules as a second strategy.
Here is the probable paths where price can show
Fibonacci rules are still in formation on the weekly chart:
The structure is in a corrective phase here where the imbalance created will now offer an opportunity for buyers to look at the fractal zones where imbalance wicks align nicely at 61.8%. If looking to buy, confirm the buy is active with confirmation. Or simply wait the next liquidity spike to the next imbalance. align the timeframes together and the imbalances will become clearer.
Daily chart
Here is the current price chart for the daily price chart with the Fibonacci applied.
The current price is testing the 61.8% retracement, the price also seems to find it's reversion (pivot point) at the 70.5% retracement*
Caveat:
The price will not always use this is a reversion point, price will use probability before falling to the monthly imbalance.
16 hour chart
Here is the 16hour imbalances which breakdown the imbalances to show in a smaller trading session - this timeframe removes further noise and solidifies the inefficient imbalance of the supply and demand strategy.
The eight hour Fibonacci is complete
Now what is happening?
This aligns with the bigger picture using the weekly and monthly.
BTC VS VIX
The Volatility index is always an interesting measure, where the Vix [see separate analysis for full breakdown]
Screenshot below to show the monthly relationship of the price closing.
The volume profile added to the Vix shows here where;
orange = value area up
Blue = value area down
*showing the buyers, sellers upon the imbalance of the newly all time high.
As described on the chart - the key zone here is the correction which aligns on the 2 week imbalance rectangle where price can revert to to provide a key positional move upwards to continue the buyers imbalance.
US Treasury volatility - not to be ignored by Crypto:
Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence.
Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the indexes also which will impact the imbalances of Crypto currencies.
BTC vs ETH:
Notice the imbalance pattern?
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.