A 456 day bubble corrected to -84%, an air of Déjà Vu !!
Updated
This is the synthesis of my previous publications!
Here are all the common points between:
- the Ultimate Dip of January 14, 2015 ($ 160)
- and the last known Dip of December 15, 2018 ($ 3200)
-85% retracement from ATH $ 1175>160, same as $ 19930>3200
-45% retracement since the previous ATL $ 250>160, same $ 5775>3200
455 days since takeoff at $ 160>160, same as $ 3200>3200
Rebounding below 78.6% Fibo to $ 160, same to $ 3200
with rebound on MA200 to $ 160, same as $ 3200
with rebound of RSI14 < 30 to $ 160, same as $ 3200
At the crossroads of level 4 support
with 2x1 fan resistance
on the GANN Square at $ 160, same $ 3200
See related ideas for more details on these indicators ;)
CAUTION: This is not an investment advice
Do not follow any "prophet", invest only what you are willing to lose
Here are all the common points between:
- the Ultimate Dip of January 14, 2015 ($ 160)
- and the last known Dip of December 15, 2018 ($ 3200)
-85% retracement from ATH $ 1175>160, same as $ 19930>3200
-45% retracement since the previous ATL $ 250>160, same $ 5775>3200
455 days since takeoff at $ 160>160, same as $ 3200>3200
Rebounding below 78.6% Fibo to $ 160, same to $ 3200
with rebound on MA200 to $ 160, same as $ 3200
with rebound of RSI14 < 30 to $ 160, same as $ 3200
At the crossroads of level 4 support
with 2x1 fan resistance
on the GANN Square at $ 160, same $ 3200
See related ideas for more details on these indicators ;)
CAUTION: This is not an investment advice
Do not follow any "prophet", invest only what you are willing to lose
Note
FIRST POINT:DATE AND PRICE RANGE
~With more precision~
2013-2015
2017-2018
Note
SECOND POINT: PRICE RANGE BETWEEN ATLs (*)
~With more precision~
(*) between the lowest price and its lowest precedent
2014-2015
2018
Note
THIRD POINT: FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT
~With more precision~
2013-2017
2017-2019
Note
4TH POINT:2013-2016 FRACTAL
The most frequent mistake seems to me to want to compare the timing of ATH peaks 2013/2017 ($ 1175 / $ 19930), whether to compare the respective retracement times or to align a fractal on this specific point.
Because the Bullrun of November 2013 was artificially faster than that of November-December 2017! Involved in the scandal of bots who massively bought Bitcoin every 10 minutes on MtGox during this period in 2013.
This explains how I trace my time interval from the FIRST POINT between the bull trap at $ 160 on takeoff of the bubble and the return to the ultimate dip of $ 160. Similarly the $ 3200 bull trap until the bottom of 15-12-2018 at $ 3200. And this methodology pays off, since I detect in both cases an equivalent duration of 445 ~ 455 days!
So as anchors of my fractal, I use these same points: the starting bear trap and the ultimate dip.
Coincidence? I then realize that the big rush on 10-15-18 (*) aligns perfectly with the bullishness of 11-12-14: and in both cases, ensued shortly after the similar retracement of -40~45% !!
I conclude that at the end of this horizontal range, we could know the opposite signal: a bit of dump like the 08-17-15 which generates the bullrun 2015-2017!
My fractal gives the 07-17-19 for this ultimate Dip supposed to be similar to that of 12-15-18... history will repeat itself as a testimony of a human psychology, a market maturity which has not changed for 4 years? See even a willing whales to offer us this kind of landmark now very visible, to invite us to FOMO with a boost of confidence?
(*) The reason for this Bitcoin fake pump (and XRP! Cf my Oct.19-2018 Idea), the abnormal Tether dump at $ 0.85:
Note
5TH POINT:RSI 14 < 30
Since 2012, Bitcoin has found itself in an oversold zone with an RSI 14 < 30 only twice:
- from January 06 to 17, 2015, bullish rally with a bullrun from January 13, 2015 to December 16, 2017
- from November 13, 2018 to December 16, 2018: ongoing rebound with an RSI 14 suddenly gone from a value of 28 (<30) to 48 on my analysis of December 19, 2018 (*)
(*) Spotted a month ago already, click this previous idea below for further explanation:
Title: "The importance of oversold RSI to play a buyer rebound"
Note
6th POINT:2011 BUBBLE
I had not really been interested until then in this distant period of Bitcoin because the fallout from $ 32 to $ 2 in a context of very little democratization seemed difficult to apply to Bitcoin today.
And yet! What a surprise by finding the same points in common with the 2014 & 2018 bubbles analyzed above!
We note in the first place that the Bear's argument to say "Be carefull! Bitcoin may fall to $1000 in 2019 = -95% AS IT WAS THE CASE IN 2011!" is wrong !
Because we must take into account that this -95% retracement was done on a 1450% Pump in a short time!
While at the same time, the performance on 2017 Bubble was "only" 525%!
In fact, my fractal shows that by removing the 2011 pump+dump surplus from the December 17-22, 2017, the 2018 retracement was as violent as the 2011 retracement:
Worse, to stick to 2011, the price should have already taken a powerful Bullrun at the end of January 2019!
So, there is no need to go for a BTC at $ 1,000 or even $ 2,000 to say that Bitcoin has already experienced its most violent bubble burst in its history by retouching the $ 3200 on December 15, 2018!
This would tend to show that if in 2018 the "perma-bulls" had a suicidal bullish bias, it is now the "perma-bears" that may maintain a downward bias that can play tricks in 2019!
This is even more true when you look at it, the 2011 fractal correlates very well during 2017-2018:
- same Bear Trap as November 12, 2018 (the famous weekend of flipping with Bitcoin Cash)
- then, very similar increase except for the ATH (whereas the one of 2014 was more fulgurante forcing me to shift the ATH of 2014 in my analysis, if you followed my previous explanations)
- a Bottom in April and the wave of "Pump & Dump" from May-June 2018 very similar
- finally, a long period of accumulation-stagnation to "heal the wounds" and, hopefully, leave on a solid foundation
The difference was that the course held the range better on the $ 6,000 bracket between July and November 2018, but this resulted in a violent dump in November 2018 that gave the same result as the 2011 Ultimate Dip with a decline that was more progressive at the time.
In the end, it is impossible to say for sure that the Bitcoin story will be repeated in 2019 (range) and 2020 (bullrun)
But my multiple confrontations of technical / graphical indicators show that the history of Bitcoin has been beautiful and well repeated its last 8 years, including and more than ever for the year 2018!
On these many irrefutable facts (except omission or accidental error on my part if you ever find one), to each to draw its own conclusions in terms of ... probabilities!
Note
7th POINT:CROSSING THE MOVING AVERAGE
MA 9 fell under MA 20 on December 15, 2018
It had not happened since a certain 01-12-2015
Trade closed: target reached
Just, wow.
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