BTC/USD - I warned you about the bull trap - what's next?
I wrote about this being a bull trap from 10k+ and drew the downwards trendline you see on the chart. Look's like I was dead on for now! (Check out that idea in the link to related ideas).
But what comes next?
I still think BTC could go back to $4.000-5.000, yes! I think the entire market is overinflated at this stage and that a return to mean is for the better - longterm. I am very bullish long term, don't get me wrong. But for now, we will go down.
However, we have a few levels to watch before we can confirm a bigger downtrend. Looks like we are sitting right on the orange trendline which goes back to previous levels from August/September. That will be broken though. A very interesting level to look at: $8900 - $9000 level!
WHY?
Because this represents:
1) the .50 fib retracement which BTC likes to follow
2) A possible (major) inverse head & shoulders forming - left shoulder from
13K high to 10k and back to 
12K, head being from 12K to the low at 6k to latest high of 11.8k and a new shoulder forming from that high to the 9k level - with a possible finish and break of neckline at a new run to 12k.
So WATCH the 9k level! If it bounces from here and goes back up towards12K, we could see a major break to the upside with a potential target of 18k if we break the neckline of the inverted H&S!
If the 9k level breaks to the downside, I am positive we are going back 6k or lower.
Disclaimer: I am currently holding fiat and waiting for entry. This is all my opinion, do your own DD, this is not financial advice.
Let's see what happens, happy trading!
But what comes next?
I still think BTC could go back to $4.000-5.000, yes! I think the entire market is overinflated at this stage and that a return to mean is for the better - longterm. I am very bullish long term, don't get me wrong. But for now, we will go down.
However, we have a few levels to watch before we can confirm a bigger downtrend. Looks like we are sitting right on the orange trendline which goes back to previous levels from August/September. That will be broken though. A very interesting level to look at: $8900 - $9000 level!
WHY?
Because this represents:
1) the .50 fib retracement which BTC likes to follow
2) A possible (major) inverse head & shoulders forming - left shoulder from
13K high to 10k and back to 12K, head being from 12K to the low at 6k to latest high of 11.8k and a new shoulder forming from that high to the 9k level - with a possible finish and break of neckline at a new run to 12k. So WATCH the 9k level! If it bounces from here and goes back up towards
12K, we could see a major break to the upside with a potential target of 18k if we break the neckline of the inverted H&S! If the 9k level breaks to the downside, I am positive we are going back 6k or lower.
Disclaimer: I am currently holding fiat and waiting for entry. This is all my opinion, do your own DD, this is not financial advice.
Let's see what happens, happy trading!
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