Bitcoin poised to enter a bear market

We just completed an elliot wave set and peaked out close to 8k. Then the first signs of weakness came up when this next wave couldn't really push to a new ATH, demonstrating textbook market complacency. Here we see bearish divergence marked in pink on the RSI and MACD. The Stochastic RSI is ready for a crossover at the top, possibly predicting a sign of future market weakness to come, and the weekly Stochastic RSI crossed last week too. We also formed a very nice indecision candle at the top with pretty decent volume. Seems like the Heikin Ashi's are starting to turn bearish as well.

I threw my Holy Grail V2 indicator on there for fun. Here we see confusion developing in as the faster lines get twisted under the mid term lines, which are also nearing the longer term lines. Also interesting to see that they look like they are set to have 3 crossovers within a short time of eachother. It still could push higher, but it would be really demanding to sustain more upward movement, as by the charts.

Also, BTC is up 8k, I would be pretty happy to walk away with that and not chase it too much higher. Got to be happy with what you have so you don't make risky choices blindly trying to chase more and end up taking unnecessary losses.

Remember, happiness is only real when shared ;)

happy trading

Note

The divergence is still growing more intense as the price climbs up. This is quite common in raging bull markets, however it just means that the price will have to crash very dramatically with this sustained level of divergence. Fib levels to keep an eye on are between the 10k to 11k range

Note

Never underestimate the blind bullishness of bitcoin. In true bitcoin fashion, the amount of new money chasing the ATH weakens all the indicators divergences. The possible peak is just above 11k.
For disclosure, I am partially invested.

Note

New divergences keep coming up, but btc keeps pushing... This is a defining week, either we show that this was a build-up to a greater waveset, or we continue with the analysis that we just went through a 5 wave cycle and will now breakdown. There are a few traders that are very excited about the fact that btc has broken out of the long-term log resistance to what may become a new (aggressive) upward channel.

Note

Looking at the market now it was rather funny to have called the top so early when the price had not even become so impulsive, especially when I mostly exited around 11k. Calling the top of btc isn't the smartest thing to do, though I will do it right now anyway. I cannot offer much in the way of technical indicators but in the way of discretional elements. The top of markets carry very heavy volume, everyone talking about what a great investment it is, and incredible volatility. Seeing a few old friends talk about what a great investment this is on facebook is enough of a clue that this could be the end. I've often noticed in trading that I should listen to my gut feeling. And then do the exact opposite of it. When I think a price is way too low and should sell everything, that's a great time to get in. When I was I would have bought more, that's a great time to get out.

Note

Well, that wasn't the top of the market. It only took a periodic -20% dip for a few 6 hour candles. It's coming to my attention that bitcoin is now entering mainstream adoption and that what appear to be tops will ultimately be places where adoption takes a break. It's all well and good, but now I will stop updating this idea and focus on growing my btc position.

mcbw_

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mcbw_