Big Players Playing their Plays on Bitcoin Part 3
Updated
Surprising right, how this market turned to real crap while a week ago it looked unstoppable. I hope some of you have learned a lesson this time, don't trust all the noise you here around you. No matter who it is, they all have their own agenda's to say what they are saying. Since the move down was so weak, it just shows that this market is completely controlled and orchestrated by certain people. How do they do it? Volumes are low, they are not the same as months ago, because than even the whales couldn't control it, at least not like they do it now.
The target of the H&S was (almost) reached and bitcoin finally broke that steep down trend channel, while i am writing this it's trying to get back in the bigger downtrend channel it formed from the 10K high. As i have mentioned the whole week, above 8700 was full bullish, above 8000ish is also still med term bull trend. So even though i expect lower prices, i still assume it's med term bull trend. Because this could all just be a very big shake out, even for the ones who got in early. Alts were taking big hits as well, and i know that many people were listening (again) to all the bullish news, of hard Forks, Consensus, i forgot what they told me about ETC. I am not saying it's nonsense, but markets don't work like that. Everything you know, the whole market knows and is already priced in. It doesn't work anymore like pre 2018. People are getting smarter, accept it, makes your life easier and without these disappointments.
I posted a short position on ETC a week or so ago, most commented i was crazy because of that upcoming event. The trade was a loosing one because my stop was to tight but we can see what happened since. It made a big drop, not to show you i am wrong or right, but to show you why i choose to ignore all those news facts that get thrown into the crypto sphere to make people crazy and start putting in their hard earned money, so the orchestrators can fill their pockets again and again and again and AGAIN!!! I think all of this worked perfectly until a half year ago, making people addicted to these strategies and letting them make some nice profits. Than people start to keep using this strategy but of course raising the stakes and therefore they give it all back after a while. Think of it, like they invested in the ones who react on these things. And again, not to show you who is wrong or right, trying to give you a sense of (what i think) is reality. There is no such thing as easy money, there are always a few lucky ones, but they are created to become messengers and spread the word.
Anyway, I want you guys to look at the 6K area, try to flip that picture and compare it to the picture between 8800/9900. Not saying this is it, but it's interesting to look and think about it. I think there is a very big chance, that we are making a big triangle from the beginning of 2018 until now. The question is, where will the breakout be, the up or down side.
I think this move down is not over yet, probably see a correction up now but i expect another wave down. Could be a double bottom at 8200, could be slightly lower to 8000/7800, could be a big drop to the 6K's again. Can't say yet, but i can say what i think will happen, that is dropping to the 7K again. First let's see if there are still some bulls in the building and if they can rally up towards the 9K again. Unless that Korean exchange thing scared people. Remember what i said a few days ago about the fraud going on at exchanges, and that we did not here a single thing about it anymore for more than a month. Even the news gets controlled in this world guys, think about all the bullish news that came out lately and what the market has done the past week. Doesn't add up right?
Don't forget to like if you appreciate what i am doing here :)
My previous analysis
The target of the H&S was (almost) reached and bitcoin finally broke that steep down trend channel, while i am writing this it's trying to get back in the bigger downtrend channel it formed from the 10K high. As i have mentioned the whole week, above 8700 was full bullish, above 8000ish is also still med term bull trend. So even though i expect lower prices, i still assume it's med term bull trend. Because this could all just be a very big shake out, even for the ones who got in early. Alts were taking big hits as well, and i know that many people were listening (again) to all the bullish news, of hard Forks, Consensus, i forgot what they told me about ETC. I am not saying it's nonsense, but markets don't work like that. Everything you know, the whole market knows and is already priced in. It doesn't work anymore like pre 2018. People are getting smarter, accept it, makes your life easier and without these disappointments.
I posted a short position on ETC a week or so ago, most commented i was crazy because of that upcoming event. The trade was a loosing one because my stop was to tight but we can see what happened since. It made a big drop, not to show you i am wrong or right, but to show you why i choose to ignore all those news facts that get thrown into the crypto sphere to make people crazy and start putting in their hard earned money, so the orchestrators can fill their pockets again and again and again and AGAIN!!! I think all of this worked perfectly until a half year ago, making people addicted to these strategies and letting them make some nice profits. Than people start to keep using this strategy but of course raising the stakes and therefore they give it all back after a while. Think of it, like they invested in the ones who react on these things. And again, not to show you who is wrong or right, trying to give you a sense of (what i think) is reality. There is no such thing as easy money, there are always a few lucky ones, but they are created to become messengers and spread the word.
Anyway, I want you guys to look at the 6K area, try to flip that picture and compare it to the picture between 8800/9900. Not saying this is it, but it's interesting to look and think about it. I think there is a very big chance, that we are making a big triangle from the beginning of 2018 until now. The question is, where will the breakout be, the up or down side.
I think this move down is not over yet, probably see a correction up now but i expect another wave down. Could be a double bottom at 8200, could be slightly lower to 8000/7800, could be a big drop to the 6K's again. Can't say yet, but i can say what i think will happen, that is dropping to the 7K again. First let's see if there are still some bulls in the building and if they can rally up towards the 9K again. Unless that Korean exchange thing scared people. Remember what i said a few days ago about the fraud going on at exchanges, and that we did not here a single thing about it anymore for more than a month. Even the news gets controlled in this world guys, think about all the bullish news that came out lately and what the market has done the past week. Doesn't add up right?
Don't forget to like if you appreciate what i am doing here :)
My previous analysis
Note
Good luck today guys, i wont be able to update that much today. Later tonight i will againNote
Think if this rally stays above the 8400 (green area), than things will be good for this time frame. Note
Weak rally again, from the looks of it now, we will probably make a big bear flag now, which could take us to the low 7K. So could still see a wave up to 8500/9000, and than drop again. Think it will take the whole weekend.Note
Back home, looking at the chart now, things are even looking worse than i though. Even now Bitcoin is still very weak, was not even able to make a higher high inside this flag. When i said towards 8500/8900 i was assuming the market will make a normal correction in this bull trend. But if we drop here below the low at 82xx, than we were (95% sure) never in a bull trend, but just within a big upside correction of the big bear market. In other words, if we break the 82xx than i we really have to think about low 7K's this weekend even. Normally i would say we go up inside this flag BECAUSE it's weekend, have used this many times before. So if we break the 82xx, i will most probably assume we will make another big crash below the 6K. So this will be a decisive moment (for me).
Note
When i zoom into this picture, we can see more clearly what i mean could happen next. The blue line is the more bullish version, there we will still go lower, but there is a chance that the market could turn bull again around the 8000 or just make another drop without necessarily a crash below the 6000. Than there would still be chances that the market finds support between 7000 and 8100 and return to the bull mode again. If they manage to do this and break the 10K, than even i, a big bear of this market, will carefully turn bull. For me the real border is 13K, a level i mentioned since we broke the 10K downwards since the ATH.In the chart above i forget to mention, that in the bearish mode will see a move like in the yellow circle, and the bulls version we will see the blue circle with a possibly more bullish future.
Note
On this time frame, it looks even worse, above the 8400 would still be good. Chances normally are small that we continue to drop from here, but the market has been very weak since the drop from the high. Looks like a small flag in the making. So bulls need to extend this flag and force it higher the next half day or so, something like the blue line
Note
First step has been set to follow the blue https://linehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ahQVwZZR/Note
Some alts show clear signs they want to break upwards, but some just show bear flags with low volumes that usually confirm the bearish option. So the signals are mixed for the AltsNote
Almost looked like it wanted to squeeze upwards, but as long as it stays above this small trend line, than things could look better for the bulsNote
So this attempt to break higher failed, not it looks like it could be in a small rising wedgeNote
it's still just so weak, it fell out of that small wedge, also dropped that rising trend line but bounced up again from the support level of the flag. So it's actually still following that 'blue' line i mentioned earlier, meaning still a chance we don't follow the bearish scenario. we do have to stay above the 8200 and actually above the support line of the bear flagNote
And a small squeeze to the upside again, few minutes after my last post :). It's against the resistance of the bear flag, so it won't be easy to break the 8600Note
Still can’t push through that 8600 resistance. But still inside a small bull flag, should not drop more below 8500, because then it will loose momentumNote
Everything looking quite good now, we can trow that extreme bearish scenario out of the window, at least for now. Still inside the bear flag and room to the upside. Above 9K things could chance. Note
Not at home now, see price jumped already. Could be a high for nowNote
I think the high is set for now, seems it has made a small triangle and it's almost dropping out of it. Could be a small drop before going up again, but i think we are going towards the 8500 at least but probably even lower. Don't know if the moment is now that we will go for a drop towards the 8000 or later. But my bullish scenario was that after a rally to these levels, we would still see a drop below the 8200. Nothing yet that to change my mind on that. Only a quick rally above 9000 could change thatNote
And so far the high seems to be set, Alts are also confirming this move, now the 8400/8450 has to hold for the bulls, but from the looks of it (while i am writing this), it will break and there for the bear flag will break as well. If this happens than i see 2 scenario's, a drop towards 7900/8100 area and bounce up again or we just keep on dropping and will go for the target of this bear flag. Note
So it broke pretty quickly and with volume, 8300 could work as a small support level. This drop could become very nasty, because weekend is over and for now it seems like the market chose it's direction alreadyNote
Want to say thanks for making me the daily and weekly number 1 author again, next target is to be the monthly author :)Note
Update
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