Looking at diminished returns over the past ten years and we find an (approximately) 82% reduction in cycle growth at peak with each cycle. That means we may have logged this cycle's top as we transition into this new phase of Bitcoin's lifecycle.
Also note that after 2018 we also see what appears to be the new cycle emerging and the ten year old channels, while still respected they are evolving, and additional, more compact support and resistance levels are found at the mid and lower market range, as volatility drops.
What does this mean? I still believe we'll continue a weak bear cycle here, but the floor is rising, think of this as the higher high from June's low at around $29k, with the floor now around $40k to $41k, with a possibility of wicking down on a bad week to upper $30k if we get some bad news or tapering hits harder than expected.
But with that we begin our next mini bull cycle in Q1 2022. It won't be as explosive as people are hoping, but I think we'll see something like a quarterly cycle emerging here, every one or two quarters will cycle through bullish to bearish until we stabilize more. The next halvening will probably still have an impact on the market, but not in the way we traditionally saw it.
Also note that after 2018 we also see what appears to be the new cycle emerging and the ten year old channels, while still respected they are evolving, and additional, more compact support and resistance levels are found at the mid and lower market range, as volatility drops.
What does this mean? I still believe we'll continue a weak bear cycle here, but the floor is rising, think of this as the higher high from June's low at around $29k, with the floor now around $40k to $41k, with a possibility of wicking down on a bad week to upper $30k if we get some bad news or tapering hits harder than expected.
But with that we begin our next mini bull cycle in Q1 2022. It won't be as explosive as people are hoping, but I think we'll see something like a quarterly cycle emerging here, every one or two quarters will cycle through bullish to bearish until we stabilize more. The next halvening will probably still have an impact on the market, but not in the way we traditionally saw it.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.