Will Bitcoin go to $20K in 6 months?
Updated
Bitcoin is in a very dangerous (bearish) situation by each quantitative metric in financial analysis -technical, fundamental and manipulative-. The mid-trend is clearly bearish, with a ~33 RSI in the weekly chart, and a ~46 RSI in the monthly chart, as well as bearish moving averages (210, 70, 14), and the price under them. The price is experiencing some corrections and volatility around the 30K-28K support, and even if its still reliable a pull-back an a restart of a 2 type trend (bullish) the odds are more bearish (65% vs 35% - would I say without demos). Based on the TTW analysis, the most probable scenario is that BTC will be having movements between 28K and 35k for some weeks or months, making a lot of retail traders to enter in the wrong break points and institutionals to wait for the price to go to support levels around 20K at the end of the year. This is the most probable scenario, but each active quant fund manager should have its own muti-strategy bots for each occasion, including the beginning of a new type 2 trend. I am using financial engineering to short BTC futures in different key points, and I am bullish in the long-run, but all the analysis indicates that in the next months the most probable scenario is a decrease in demand of this security token, so it would be more convenient to implement an active, not a passive investment approach.
Comment
Bitcoin has crossed down its support at 30K-28K, and its on its way to the 20K level.
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