My FMA market analysis of short-term BTC movement pre-halvening
Updated
This analysis is totally FMA and is not financial advice.
BTC has been in a strong upward trend since middle of December, keeping quite strictly to a fairly narrow ascending channel with minimal volatility.
Increases of 15-20% in 5-9 days have repeated with a few days of sideways or mild depreciation between (15% up, sideways slight downward. 15% up, sideways slight downward. 15% up, sideways slight downward. ... ).
By tracking BTC's movement in the channel and watching for intersection with the channel boundaries, we can identify good times to buy and stack. This is after drops when the price is meeting the low boundary of the channel, or sometimes when it hits the trend line mid-way in the channel.
And we can make estimations (if the trend holds), noting areas of previous resistance and support.
For example, we see that $10,000 is a significant level of resistance and support due to psychology.
Feb 15, 2020
This past week, price of 1.0BTC has hovered above $10,000USD, finding resistance at the top of the channel, and now dipping below $10,000 mark.
We are reaching the bottom of the ascending channel, and I expect price to increase ~15% in the next week. I anticipate a few more days of sideways action at or below this price point, followed by an increase of 10-15% over 5-10 days, hitting $11,000-11,300 before the next cycle. Anything below $10,000 is a BUY.
At about the $11,000 mark is more resistance. Pressing through this will result in it becoming support.
Interestingly, my tightening triangle channel points exactly to a date that lines up with the halvening. This was not intentional, but I do believe that post-halvening, this trend will likely break. "All bets are off" at that point, so to speak, and a new trend will form.
BTC has been in a strong upward trend since middle of December, keeping quite strictly to a fairly narrow ascending channel with minimal volatility.
Increases of 15-20% in 5-9 days have repeated with a few days of sideways or mild depreciation between (15% up, sideways slight downward. 15% up, sideways slight downward. 15% up, sideways slight downward. ... ).
By tracking BTC's movement in the channel and watching for intersection with the channel boundaries, we can identify good times to buy and stack. This is after drops when the price is meeting the low boundary of the channel, or sometimes when it hits the trend line mid-way in the channel.
And we can make estimations (if the trend holds), noting areas of previous resistance and support.
For example, we see that $10,000 is a significant level of resistance and support due to psychology.
Feb 15, 2020
This past week, price of 1.0BTC has hovered above $10,000USD, finding resistance at the top of the channel, and now dipping below $10,000 mark.
We are reaching the bottom of the ascending channel, and I expect price to increase ~15% in the next week. I anticipate a few more days of sideways action at or below this price point, followed by an increase of 10-15% over 5-10 days, hitting $11,000-11,300 before the next cycle. Anything below $10,000 is a BUY.
At about the $11,000 mark is more resistance. Pressing through this will result in it becoming support.
Interestingly, my tightening triangle channel points exactly to a date that lines up with the halvening. This was not intentional, but I do believe that post-halvening, this trend will likely break. "All bets are off" at that point, so to speak, and a new trend will form.
Note
I'm not sure how to add an image, but I have an overlay with the growth in each dip/growth cycle. How do I add that to this thread? You can view it here: hxxps://imgur[.]com/a/x5VVzBK
Note
So I was incorrect on my guess that there would be more sideways action - instead there was a dip. But it did rebound as soon as it hit the channel boundary.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.