RLinda ! BTCUSD->Crash, Retest 0.5 Fibo and Powell's performance
Updated
Bitcoin is in a phase of strong decline, the catalyst for which is the fundamental side of the global economy. The price may close the weekly session in a range between -10% and -12%. Let's figure out what's going on and what to expect in the medium term.
The sense of risk was tempered by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony, which signaled a potentially longer cycle of tightening.
In his testimony on Capitol Hill, Powell said that "if all the data pointed to the need for faster tightening, we would be willing to increase the pace of rate hikes." He also said that the Fed had not yet decided on the pace of interest rate hikes at its March 21-22 meeting.
Nevertheless, we have a coincidence in the structure of the daily market with the accumulation according to the wyckoff method:
Phase A (Price has passed this phase) : Stopping the previous downward movement (strong move). The approaching supply contraction is evidenced by the culmination of selling (SC) - the widening spread and high volume reflect the transition of a huge amount of liquidity from the large mass of players to the large professional investors. Once the pressure of intense selling eases, an automatic rally (AR) usually sets in. A successful secondary test (ST) in the SC area will show less selling than before, narrowing of the spread and a decrease in volume, usually stopping at or above the same price level as SC.
Phase B (Price at the end of phase two formation):
At the beginning of phase two, price swings tend to be wide and accompanied by high volume. However, as professionals absorb supply, volume tends to decrease on dips within the range.
Large professional interests accumulate relatively inexpensive inventory in anticipation of the next markup. The institutional accumulation process can take a long time (sometimes a year or more) and involves buying the BTC asset at lower prices and checking for price increases with short sales.
During the second phase, several STs usually occur. In general, large investors are net buyers of the coin as the situation evolves, seeking to purchase as much as possible from the remaining floating supply. Institutional buying and selling creates a characteristic up-and-down price movement in the trading range.
Phase C: It is in Phase C that the stock price passes the decisive test of remaining supply, allowing the market maker and the big players to determine whether the market is ready to go up.
As noted earlier, the spring is a price move below range support that quickly reverses and moves back into the range - an example of a "bear trap" as falling below support would seem to signal the resumption of a downtrend. In reality, however, it marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping late sellers (bears). A low-volume spring (or shakeout) indicates that bitcoin is probably ready to move up, so it is a good time to open at least a partial long position.
The appearance of an SOS shortly after a "spring" or "shakeout" confirms that the analysis is correct. However, supply testing can occur higher without a spring or shakeout.
Phase D: There follows a consistent dominance of demand over supply. During the fourth phase, the price moves to the upper end of the range. LPS in this phase is usually a great place to open or complement profitable long positions.
Phase E: In this phase, price moves out of resistance, demand is in complete control and growth is obvious to all!
From the point of view of technical analysis we have a downward movement which is based more on fundamental leverage:
The price has tested the strong support of 19666, which was formed back in 2017 (December)
There is a small price reaction in the form of a 6.5% recovery to 20900
In the medium term, there is a big chance of continuation of the fall if the price bounces down from the 0.5 Fibo level (20374) and returns to retest the strong support, in which case a retest of the 0.618 Fibo area (19219) or the 18500-18600 interest zone is evident.
Right now the price is in a range between 0.5 Fibo and 0.618 Fibo. After a strong drop, the price may form a consolidation in these boundaries.
Regards R. Linda!
The sense of risk was tempered by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony, which signaled a potentially longer cycle of tightening.
In his testimony on Capitol Hill, Powell said that "if all the data pointed to the need for faster tightening, we would be willing to increase the pace of rate hikes." He also said that the Fed had not yet decided on the pace of interest rate hikes at its March 21-22 meeting.
Nevertheless, we have a coincidence in the structure of the daily market with the accumulation according to the wyckoff method:
Phase A (Price has passed this phase) : Stopping the previous downward movement (strong move). The approaching supply contraction is evidenced by the culmination of selling (SC) - the widening spread and high volume reflect the transition of a huge amount of liquidity from the large mass of players to the large professional investors. Once the pressure of intense selling eases, an automatic rally (AR) usually sets in. A successful secondary test (ST) in the SC area will show less selling than before, narrowing of the spread and a decrease in volume, usually stopping at or above the same price level as SC.
Phase B (Price at the end of phase two formation):
At the beginning of phase two, price swings tend to be wide and accompanied by high volume. However, as professionals absorb supply, volume tends to decrease on dips within the range.
Large professional interests accumulate relatively inexpensive inventory in anticipation of the next markup. The institutional accumulation process can take a long time (sometimes a year or more) and involves buying the BTC asset at lower prices and checking for price increases with short sales.
During the second phase, several STs usually occur. In general, large investors are net buyers of the coin as the situation evolves, seeking to purchase as much as possible from the remaining floating supply. Institutional buying and selling creates a characteristic up-and-down price movement in the trading range.
Phase C: It is in Phase C that the stock price passes the decisive test of remaining supply, allowing the market maker and the big players to determine whether the market is ready to go up.
As noted earlier, the spring is a price move below range support that quickly reverses and moves back into the range - an example of a "bear trap" as falling below support would seem to signal the resumption of a downtrend. In reality, however, it marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping late sellers (bears). A low-volume spring (or shakeout) indicates that bitcoin is probably ready to move up, so it is a good time to open at least a partial long position.
The appearance of an SOS shortly after a "spring" or "shakeout" confirms that the analysis is correct. However, supply testing can occur higher without a spring or shakeout.
Phase D: There follows a consistent dominance of demand over supply. During the fourth phase, the price moves to the upper end of the range. LPS in this phase is usually a great place to open or complement profitable long positions.
Phase E: In this phase, price moves out of resistance, demand is in complete control and growth is obvious to all!
From the point of view of technical analysis we have a downward movement which is based more on fundamental leverage:
The price has tested the strong support of 19666, which was formed back in 2017 (December)
There is a small price reaction in the form of a 6.5% recovery to 20900
In the medium term, there is a big chance of continuation of the fall if the price bounces down from the 0.5 Fibo level (20374) and returns to retest the strong support, in which case a retest of the 0.618 Fibo area (19219) or the 18500-18600 interest zone is evident.
Right now the price is in a range between 0.5 Fibo and 0.618 Fibo. After a strong drop, the price may form a consolidation in these boundaries.
Regards R. Linda!
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