A Date with Bitcoin (Part 2 The Bottoming)
Updated
The Confluence & Power of The Rings
Over the years Fib Rings have had the tendency to indicate high levels of Support and Resistance. From the recent past these 2 rings I have done there has been a slight glimpse to look into the future. Take of it that you will but the facts are in the chart. Review the major moves Bitcoin has taken over the past year (2021- present day), observe the timeline and price targets Bitcoin has had with respect to the bounds of "The Rings".
The Bottoming
As we approach 2 major Crossing Fib Rings and a confluence of Trend-Base Extensions, 300 MA and a measured move of 30% to the down side there are a few key dates to pay attention to:
Price Targets $17,549 > $16,200 (possible wick down to $13,839)
- July 5-6th we may revisit the same support in which we bottomed on the June 18th ring.
- From this, for a few days we may gain short-lived triggering a "double bottom" bounce.
- Towards 12-14th July I suspect we revisit the ring that kick started the whole 2021 bull cycle again. Marking a potential mid-year bottom.
As this indicates that there is a potential further decline, I am not ruling out that there could also be further downside in the weeks to come or, a bottom is already in. This theory suggests only if there is more downside and the dates to watch out for. Breaking either of these ring cross overs would indicator further downside or potential reversals. I will update this as we progress.
Over the years Fib Rings have had the tendency to indicate high levels of Support and Resistance. From the recent past these 2 rings I have done there has been a slight glimpse to look into the future. Take of it that you will but the facts are in the chart. Review the major moves Bitcoin has taken over the past year (2021- present day), observe the timeline and price targets Bitcoin has had with respect to the bounds of "The Rings".
The Bottoming
As we approach 2 major Crossing Fib Rings and a confluence of Trend-Base Extensions, 300 MA and a measured move of 30% to the down side there are a few key dates to pay attention to:
Price Targets $17,549 > $16,200 (possible wick down to $13,839)
- July 5-6th we may revisit the same support in which we bottomed on the June 18th ring.
- From this, for a few days we may gain short-lived triggering a "double bottom" bounce.
- Towards 12-14th July I suspect we revisit the ring that kick started the whole 2021 bull cycle again. Marking a potential mid-year bottom.
As this indicates that there is a potential further decline, I am not ruling out that there could also be further downside in the weeks to come or, a bottom is already in. This theory suggests only if there is more downside and the dates to watch out for. Breaking either of these ring cross overs would indicator further downside or potential reversals. I will update this as we progress.
Note
Apologies for the resolutionNote
Since the 5-6th July drop did not reach our target, there calls for more sideways action and/or potential short term pump. I've also issued another ring which would hold strong resistance around the 12-14th July date. This ring has held resistance from capitulation zone around May 7th. It also coincided with the kick start to the 2021 bull cycleNote
Short mid term pump played out and now we approach the ring resistance. The ring mentioned above has been strong resistance. The further we go down the further the resistance extends. 48hrs should show some interesting times.Note
So price target did not meet the target date as we have prolonged an extended move. In retrospect short term pump did play out. I've also updated a ring as it seems resistance is either playing out over the next 48hrs or this coming week. Price target still has not moved however. Watch and wait Note
Prolonged extension of a relief rally has now taken place pushing back some Price Targets for the short term. The Price Action taken from the last 48hrs has hit resistance with the Fib Ring (orange ring). Note that candle sticks are on 2d so ring moves do have a variance, small adjustments have taken this into account. Whether we grind this out or capitulate will depend on the charts. I'll invalidate this if price crosses either approaching ring without PA.Note
For a closer look in details for Ring Cross over I have zoomed in and on Daily instead of 2 day. Date range is within 7 days (High PA = less time / Lower PA = more timeNote
Ok, time for an update to this chart (screenshot) it appears the cross over the ring did not trigger as intended, although, the cross has represented (as stated) with a impulsive Price Action (PA) to the upside. However, since crossing the ring you can see we have been trending down side it. For now I will resolve the added cross "POST" published chart and focus now on the below rings for the bearish scenario. For the bullish scenario touching the orange ring below could trigger a major bounce. I'm playing around with another potential scenario whereby another ring has been added. Will post once back tested.Note
About time I updated: Just some readjustments consider we have tracked sideways for a while. New ring movements (not ideal) but same Ring as mentions above has had a slight adjustments to trend on Sept 2021 mid term bounce. We crossed/hit both Rings and now trending downwards. Bottom line rings still in place (untouched) breaking these rings would cause another capitulation event.Minor updates:
- 300 Weekly MA moved up as well
- Adjusted some Price targets due to price action
Note
Zoomed in here as we are approach my ring from 2020 COVID retest. Breaking these rings... can call for a capitulation event. We may not touch the lower ring but will dump.Note
Time I updated this as we are at a critical point here, sitting right on the next Capitulation ring. Breaking this I anticipate we will retest this ring by bouncing off the 300MA and also the previous low target $17,500. Whether or not we double bottom or not is yet to be determine but I am slightly lower targets. Lets see how it plays out!See here the confluence between the last crossing over back in April 22. A 6.26% retrace before rebounding back up to retest. This current situation may play out exactly the same and also targets last low.
Note
I think it's time to bring this chart back in as we have actually played it out pretty damn well... right now we are at huge resistance
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.