Short

Updated

BTC at breaking point, fast movement may come soon (likely Drop)

BTC is at a breaking point, fast movement may come some time soon.

It does seem more likely to break DOWN, to me.
Dropping below 6400, makes 6200-6000 likely.

A flash pump to/above ~6800 invalidates this.
(Sorry for my long absence, I plan to resume being active & more consistent soon)

Note

BTC made the initial drop but there was too little volume/momentum. The sideways movement for the past day reset things, allowing this small Bullush push.

I mentioned and highlighted the 6400 Support that needed to be broken to see 6200-6000.
BTC fell there, but supported and recovered.

Note

I don't see any huge move for BTC in the next coming hours.
We are still in a large, narrowing triangle, so the market is indecisive.

BTC may do something like this in the next hours, nothing much.
I'll wait for more data points as things develop, then will share thoughts on next direction.

Note

I just took profits on this quick EOS scalp Short I called (on Twitter).
Would have been over 10% ROE, at time of filling.
twitter.com/AndrewEDavis/status/1047931077837422593

Be sure to follow me on Twitter, if you'd like more frequent updates, and analysis for Altcoins as well - twitter.com/AndrewEDavis

Note

I exited BTC and EOS Short positions during the sharp drop.
Just exited LTC Long.
All in nice profits.

Both the Drop and the Recovery spike were quicker than I anticipated, especially given the recent sluggish movement of crypto markets.

I'll sit out for a bit, till things settle.

Note

Ethereum/ ETH (USD) stopped rising exactly at the Shorting target I gave earlier, also fell right to my outlined drop/Take Profit target.

The drop (along with all other ALTs) was just accelerated faster than anticipated.

twitter.com/AndrewEDavis/status/1047926527248224256

Note

Most Altcoins appear Bearish to me at the moment.
ETH, LTC, XRP, ADA, EOS ...
At least for the next hours, they don't appear to be in a position to make any massive jump upward. Down short-term seems more likely.
BTC seems a bit bearish also, but Alts, more convincingly.

Note

If BTC drops (which does seem likely, overnight), I expect it to test the strong support at ~6450 again (possibility that it holds).
If 6450 doesn't hold, BTC could drop to 6200-6300 next.

Note

I updated with this on Twitter earlier:

Due to Bitcoin's slow sideways movement overnight, Altcoins have reset some of their bearish momentum I was observing earlier.
If Bitcoin drops, I believe it may hover around it's current spot for another 1-4 hours, before attempting a push downward.

If BTC keeps moving sideways & slowly up for longer than that (+4 hrs), it can make a Bullish move up.
I'd have to observe how it progresses to update my view on direction, but I won't be on for some hours.

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Current Status:

BTC current status:
Bulls & Bears fighting all day for a more favorable position to change direction, right now price is in the middle of lots of Support and Resistances.

I see more layers of support below, but the resistances above look more difficult to break at the moment. 1/2

I don't see BTC in a strong position to surprise pump right now.
It could attempt a weak push to ~6610 (maybe did already while I was charting), but could drop back down a bit, and be in a more Bearish position for drop.

(I'll try to update when I see a big move coming)

Note

Very sharp and unexpected BTC pump... I definitely didn't see anything in TA at the moment that would support this move, thus probably the lacking follow-through volume so far, as it doesn't seem to be an algo/TA supported pump.
Likely some individual/group I think.
Observing.

Note

BTC is currently at an area of strong resistance. I'm not seeing anything right now that suggests it should begin pumping higher again here. However the recent movement in this narrowing triangle has been unpredictable, betting heavily on either outcome doesn't seem wise.

At it's current position, I see more possibility that BTC drops a bit. Could take hours with this sluggish movement.
Highlighted are the areas of Support below to look out for. (6540, 6475)
We should come to a conclusion of Bitcoin's next direction, by or before Oct 9th.

As I mentioned earlier, per TA, I didn't see a reason for that Flash Pump (fakeout), it failed due to lack of supporting Algo/TA Buy volume.
This doesn't mean that we can't break out upwards at the end of this. Just that BTC wasn't rightly positioned at the time for a successful break.

Note

Anyone shorted with me?
I gave my entry, BCH price touched exactly & fell.
Shifted laddered shorts a bit lower (filled avg 0.799 first, then filled more lower on rebound), as I noted weakness while nearing target range.

I let it run overnight, as I felt confident of this drop.

Also shorted XRP & BTC before drop.

(Was posted on Twitter, follow me there for more calls/updates):
twitter.com/AndrewEDavis/status/1048427644411420672

Note

(Updates have been moved to my new post, those who aren't aware)

I advised a week ago to look out for this possibly happening with BTC.
(~4 days ago, with new data, I re-counted & improved the position of the small ABCDE).

If correct, we are currently on subW3 of subWC of subWB (ABC) of Wave 2 (larger ABC) of 5 down.

I hope most kept safe!

Newer post:

Bitcoin at Wave 2 of 5, in C Wave of Bear Market Large ABC

AndrewEDavis

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AndrewEDavis

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