End of a wyckoff distribution phase confirmed with the markdown beginning with its descent from 59k since May.
If there was a double bottom built here in the current context range, I'd mark this as a start of an invalidation of the trend break and continue its ascent up. The range buildup here is now a dangerous signal and building a bearish flag .
I never feel sure especially with BTC so I'll be staying out of it by holding 50% cash.
If the bearish flag is valid, pole height estimates price movement down towards 20k, which conveniently meets . 786 retracement which is where my next buy and hodl zone will be.
If there was a double bottom built here in the current context range, I'd mark this as a start of an invalidation of the trend break and continue its ascent up. The range buildup here is now a dangerous signal and building a bearish flag .
I never feel sure especially with BTC so I'll be staying out of it by holding 50% cash.
If the bearish flag is valid, pole height estimates price movement down towards 20k, which conveniently meets . 786 retracement which is where my next buy and hodl zone will be.
Note
Strange wick - Strong bullish support. Chart requires updating to anticipate for scenario that this is a retracement activity in the larger bullish trend.
Note
If bottom is reached, possible short term bullish scenario for a price target in the red box where downtrend line meets the local 1.618 extension as well as the 61.8 retracement.Note
If bottom is not reached, possible scenario:Move down to next support at 20k. Box range. RSI falls into oversold region and parabolic move up to retest the major downtrend.
Note
Interesting observations: 
Confidence that we are invalidating this bearish flag and reversing back to the upside is now higher (re-entered position yesterday near the lows).
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.