Long

BTC - The primary channel is MA200 - MA365, which is UP!

Updated

This is how I see BTC. Its channel is up and the broader & general support line so far is 1Y MA. The channel is defined by MA200d and MA365d as illustrated above. If the price re-tests MA50, which is presently near 8269 & it holds, it will rebound and continue its upward journey towards 11k to 15k (max) in coming months. The failure to hold this level will give another buy opportunity near MA365 (7133). I am buying between 9200 - 7100 to accumulate with upside targets (11.7k, 13k, and 15k). My expectations are to see these levels in few months. Just one good week will do!

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BTC bounced back from MA50 and found a resistance at expected 8.8k (OR Feb L/H fib 50% = 8888). 5H showcases some positives for the breakout (STOCH=65; ATR=215; ROC=1.36; UO=51; BBP=194) with only MACD being negative (-104). 1D continues to exert some sell pressure (CCI=-78; HL=-217; BBP=-452), which was partly negotiated by some buyers reflected as yesterday's 1D near Doji candlestick (with a long lower wick from MA50). We will see some bumps and perhaps one pending correction giving one more buy opportunity (near MA365=7153). I'll keep holding the asset with ultimate upside targets being the same (11.7, 13 and 15max) most likely near Fib Swing Zone 21 (June 23, 2018).

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Following yesterday's post, 1D continued to exert sell pressure while testing MA50(8290) and with negative MOM=-1464. A common price action post bearish divergence as posted earlier (May 10 or earlier). BTC is trading just under MA50. the 1D channel down will allow deeper correction to test Fib0.618=7791 and ultimately MA365=7170 (/Fib0.786=7193.73 retracement). I'm placing further buy orders below Fib0.618 (till 7200) assuming that the MA365 will once again provide the ultimate support for this correction. If the price rebounds above 7800, I'll do nothing. Note: Oversold conditions will soon rebound (STOCHRSI; William %R; and FT). Upside targets till end June (near Swing Zone: June 23, 2018) are the same.

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Not much to add except the significance of MA50 days appears an important level & the price moves sideways. 5H bullish divergence pattern still holds whereas the longer time frame (1D) still showcases sell pressure on a low volume (23k). Price also settles down near Fib 50% & trades on a narrow rectangle. The sideways movement and the significance of MA50 are the only escape route to break the channel down (correction) and re-test of 9200/https://Fib23.6....nnnhttps://invst.ly/7hcsd....Failure of 5H bullish divergence will result in one last dip (below Fib61.8 & towards MA365=7219, today) & will fill my further buy orders. Otherwise, I'll do nothing & keep holding.

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5H - tight band (BB9) & divergence pattern remains valid. We are going to see the price action pretty soon (%R & STOCHRSI just recovering from oversold conditions, while FT remains higher than the previous low just like RSI)...https://nnnhttps://invst.ly/7hhq-....1D will develop post 5H completion.

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Post-5H tight Bollinger Band (9-days) BTC continued its downward momentum to test Fib61.8 and yesterday’s close was below MA50, which was quickly bought. Consequently, it rebounded post couple of toughs 5H sessions. Now, MA50=8317 forms a major resistance. Perhaps, this rebound is an indication that a re-test of MA365 (7200) is ignored for the following week OR the correction remains moderate although I was expecting (78.6-88.6%) deep corrections. 1D sell pressure & low volume (<30k) are the chief problems. Anyways, we have seen an exact 23-days BB-cycle (1:1) before and after the bearish divergence. I expect the price to make small leaps towards MA9=8479.8 & ultimately towards U/BB9=9016 since some elements are gaining momentum (STOCHRSI=4; %R=-86; BBP=10; ATR=177). My buy orders (7200-7800) are still in place & other positions remain open. A key reference for B/O candle height is 1H > 5H > $460 (1D ATR) so that we don’t get excited should the candle height is less than this.

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BTC nearly tested 1D MA9/MA50 (8393/8384) & is trading near these resistances with a tight BB9 (8781-8005). Key TI (UO/FT/CCI/STOCHRSI) are recovering from the oversold conditions post bullish turnaround…https://nnnhttps://invst.ly/7i1rc. Hourly breakout zone (8376-8466), is also at the neckline of inv HnS setup (left: regular, right hidden bullish divergence), suggesting a continuation of the up-trend (https://nnnhttps://invst.ly/7i1rb). I still consider BTC being bullish and will take small leaps towards U/BB (8781, ultimately 9k). For the day or so, I expect the band to remain tight with a narrow trading range (8600 – 7800) and the volume to be reduced to 10k prior to a blow-out. Considering the trade goes against my expectations, the bottom of this correction should be near MA365=7239 (presently), where my further buy orders will be triggered.

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The daily sell pressure continued (3-red days & weeks) and BTC suffered from deep corrections that I initially expected but the price only managed to develop a local high around 8.6k. I take this opportunity to revisit my view whether I have missed read the situation or not: (A) Weekly channel down was broken in April & RSI(3) was overbought at the end of April, suggested healthy corrections (7200 area). (B) Dec-May can be seen as an illustration of bearish weaknesses (trend strength=21) & EFI (/vol) continues to develop higher lows, which all points towards general market corrections with gains. Earlier, I explained a huge positive ADL divergence since Dec suggesting net volume accumulation that is so far seen as Feb gains. Should the April gains also add-up, we shall see when this correction goes down to Fib78.6-Fib88.6 (7193-6838). (C) Daily oscillators (MFI, CCI, STOCHRSI) show positive divergence in oversold conditions throughout May.

On a further note, I don’t think daily oversold conditions will last longer. If I have put things in a good order for this quarter, I must not make a U-turn. I would rather follow the same plan. Thus, the plan continues while BTC has finally entered in my last buy zone. A test of MA365(7287, today) remains valid with ultimate Fib88.6%=6838 being maximum retracement level, which shall leave some April gains. However, if the price gets 100% retraced & falls below 6450, it will be considered as a bull trap. I will still not be bothered.

Here is my daily chart…https://nnnhttps://invst.ly/7jchb... nnnn...indicating the correction bottom & price swing zones. And this is the chart showcasing the trend strength…https://nnnhttps://invst.ly/7jchu....It also shows the channel defined by MA200d and MA365d with an intra-channel support/resistance i.e. MA50. So far this channel works.

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Continuing from my last posts, all positions have been filled at critical support levels. My last ones were (7200-7600) with an expected test of MA365 (much similar to Feb/April journey that we had since when I have been stressing on MA365 as a key support). It all boils down to today's closing as indicated in my last post. If we see an Inverted Hammer or a Harami cross. Three red weeks aren't easy to digest but its common in crypto world to drop below 78% Fibonacci level. Thus, we will further wait for two more days for the weekly close (MA52) and then a few more days for the monthly close (MA12). This will give me enough confident for June/July trends. For SLs my best bet is 6820 for now but I haven't put any so far. I would like to wait at least for the weekly close. Thank you so much for your support. We had a good journey through this difficult time & we will be in touch soon!

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Updated https://Chart...https://www.tradingview.com/x/JPhXcRTf/

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Again, BTC tested the MA365 & rebounded with daily ATR. It is quite convincing that BTC may break through 7700 & enter 8k area.

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Post yesterday's pump & two important spikes, the manipulation goes along and the price continues to recover from the deep on a neutral RSI=44 with some strong momentum on daily (STOCH=75; ADX=40; CCI=94; UO=54; FT=1.0). I consider MACD(-254) lagging thus it remains negative. With two important crosses [long term: MA50/MA100; Short term: DEMA(9,26)] and positive momentum (ChandeMo=44; MO=273), the price should test 7800-8200 zone.

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Three bounces so far:

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