BTC - Likeliest Scenario Inside
Updated
Good evening traders,
In tonight's update I'll point out the current situation and my current plan.
Inline with my last trading plan, I purchased on the breakout of the .65 on volume. I successfully sold when we stalled and managed to lock in $180 dollars in profit.
Now that we have broken down, I want to point out what I see on the chart.
Volume is picking up on the sell side, and has already surpassed more volume than the previous red candles. The next red volume bar that is bigger (and keep in mind we have time to close still) isn't until we hit the low @ 4834 of this entire impulse.
Using the 4hr chart, please see some key bearish points:
1) We wicked right through the .65 and the .618 of the fibonacci from this impulses low, to the new high - this tells me the bullish impulse is likely over, and we are about to start a further bearish impulse.
2) RSI is curving sharply down
3) RSI has crossed on its averages.
4) SlowStoch is crossing downwards
5) MACD is bearishly crossing
6) VFI is starting to curve in on itself
The main clues however, is the volume acceleration, and the assets lack of respect for the .65 and .618 of the fib of the run from impulse low. Combine with the indicators finally showing up on the 4hr this tells me that the likeliest scenario is we re-test the previous lows, or make new ones.
Trading plan:
As a result my next trade plan will be to lock in 20% @ the previous low of 4834, 30% at the 200 day SMA which is currently at 4725, and the remainder of the funds to purchase on a bullish trend reversal. 1% Stop loss from 200 SMA will be enforced on a successful trade.
If by some chance the low is in, the asset is much more bullish than expected, and in this case I will look to join the ride at break and re-test of the new high.
As always, if you like my content, please hit the "Like" and "Follow" button. Additionally, you can always receive my updates by going to settings, notifications, check receive email updates, and follow this idea.
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to join the Cryptocrew discord @ discord.gg/EH2SXsV to join the discussion.
In tonight's update I'll point out the current situation and my current plan.
Inline with my last trading plan, I purchased on the breakout of the .65 on volume. I successfully sold when we stalled and managed to lock in $180 dollars in profit.
Now that we have broken down, I want to point out what I see on the chart.
Volume is picking up on the sell side, and has already surpassed more volume than the previous red candles. The next red volume bar that is bigger (and keep in mind we have time to close still) isn't until we hit the low @ 4834 of this entire impulse.
Using the 4hr chart, please see some key bearish points:
1) We wicked right through the .65 and the .618 of the fibonacci from this impulses low, to the new high - this tells me the bullish impulse is likely over, and we are about to start a further bearish impulse.
2) RSI is curving sharply down
3) RSI has crossed on its averages.
4) SlowStoch is crossing downwards
5) MACD is bearishly crossing
6) VFI is starting to curve in on itself
The main clues however, is the volume acceleration, and the assets lack of respect for the .65 and .618 of the fib of the run from impulse low. Combine with the indicators finally showing up on the 4hr this tells me that the likeliest scenario is we re-test the previous lows, or make new ones.
Trading plan:
As a result my next trade plan will be to lock in 20% @ the previous low of 4834, 30% at the 200 day SMA which is currently at 4725, and the remainder of the funds to purchase on a bullish trend reversal. 1% Stop loss from 200 SMA will be enforced on a successful trade.
If by some chance the low is in, the asset is much more bullish than expected, and in this case I will look to join the ride at break and re-test of the new high.
As always, if you like my content, please hit the "Like" and "Follow" button. Additionally, you can always receive my updates by going to settings, notifications, check receive email updates, and follow this idea.
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to join the Cryptocrew discord @ discord.gg/EH2SXsV to join the discussion.
Note
I may adjust my buys slightly depending on the RSI situation. I will be looking for a bullish continuation around 47.5 RSI, with such a strong bullish impulse, I would expect some sort of significant bounce from the asset trying to stay in bullish RSI territory. Whether or not that will be the real impulse I don't know.Currently I have buys @ 4834 and 4735. I will adjust these as the 4hr RSI develops.
All in all, we're currently on track, we will most likely see some sort of a mini relief rally soon as hourly indicators are all oversold.
Note
We've already broken down into bearish territory on the RSI, for now its back to the original trade plan.Nothing to do now but sit back and wait, an ideal buy would be near 200MA support, with bullish divergence showing up within the 1-4hr.
If you find my information helpful, please return the favor and hit the like and follow button, it's very encouraging and keeps me motivated!
Twitter: twitter.com/Jedi_ant
Twitter: twitter.com/Jedi_ant
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