An analysis during Christmas Week for Bitcoin
Unfortunately, my original that I have been working on now for a few days has been wiped away after a refresh of the browser. I am not going to attempt to rewrite what was once written.
To break things down quickly, I really just wanted to know if there was any kind of pattern that could be found while analyzing previous weeks that Christmas fell on. I wanted to start with Christmas day and see if it was heavily traded or dead quiet. Then I wanted to expand into the week and see how Christmas compared to the week itself.
There is a lot of Data to choose from as to what is relevant and what is not. I will mainly focus on Volume.
I shouldn't need to say this but I will anyway. In no way am I "comparing" Christmas week of 2011 with Christmas week of 2019. For far too many reasons than I care to get into, that would just be crazy. I am mostly just looking at the data to get an overall feel. Bitcoin is super young and with only 8 years worth of data on STAMP, it's just not enough for a deep analysis.
I will cross reference the overlapping available years with Coinbase to try to get a better understanding and see what comparisons can be made.
Anyway, this intro is far too long... Let's get started.
I started with the most simple metric available. Christmas day. Bullish or Bearish and by what percent up or down and what the percent equaled in dollars at the time.
Let's take a look at 2011 as an example.
For 2011 we can see that on Christmas day we posted a daily gain of 1.41% (o.o6) and the Week that Christmas fell on Posted an 8.84% loss (-$0.42) from the Open on Monday to the Close on Sunday.
So the Data for Christmas Day is as follows:
Christmas Day:
2011 - 1.41% = $0.06
2012 - 0.69% = $0.09
2013 - 10.37% = $70.26
2014 - 2.63% = $8.42
2015 - -8.37% = -$38.11
2016 - 0.72% = $6.45
2017 - 13.21% = $1838.94
2018 - 0.79% = $30.01
2019 - Wednesday
2020 - Friday
The Day that Christmas fell on:
Christmas Day:
2011 - Sunday
2012 - Tuesday
2013 - Wednesday
2014 - Thursday
2015 - Friday
2016 - Sunday
2017 - Monday
2018 - Tuesday
2019 - Wednesday
2020 - Friday
And the Week that housed Christmas and the results:
Holiday Week including Christmas:
Monday - Sunday
2011 - 19-25 = -8.84% = -$0.42
2012 - 24-30 = 0.08% = $0.01
2013 - 23-29 = 12.48% = $81.74
2014 - 22-28 = -5.87% = -$19.51
2015 - 21-27 = -3.81% = -$16.68
2016 - 19-25 = 13.41% = $106.07
2017 - 25-31 = -3.46% = -$482.09
2018 - 24-30 = -8.46% = -$341.24
2019 - 23-29 = ?
2020 - 21-27 = ?
So, besides 2015, on the Day of Christmas we have posted gains ranging from a low of 0.69% to a high of 13.21%.
The Weekly results were far less Bullish as 5 of 8 were weeks that resulted in a loss from Monday to Sunday. The losses ranged from -3.46% to -8.84% while the three weeks that rose from Monday to Sunday ranged from 0.08% up to 13.41%.
I wanted to see where the volume sat on Christmas in comparison to the Volume average.
Here are the results:
Christmas Day Above/Below
Average Volume:
2011 - Below
2012 - Below
2013 - Below
2014 - Below
2015 - Above
2016 - Below
2017 - Below
2018 - Below
2019 - ?
2020 - ?
Oddly enough, the only Christmas Day that posted negative results was also the only Christmas Day where the trading Volume was above average. That particular Christmas was in 2015 and landed on a Friday. It is also the only Friday Christmas we have data for. The next will be in 2020.
From here I wanted to capture the Local and Macro trends from which preceded the Week that Christmas fell into.
Here is an example from 2016:
Here is the resulting data:
Holiday Week Local/Macro Trend:
2011 - 19-25 = Up/Down
2012 - 24-30 = Range/Up
2013 - 23-29 = Up/Up
2014 - 22-28 = Down/Down
2015 - 21-27 = Down/Up
2016 - 19-25 = Up/Up
2017 - 25-31 = Down/Up
2018 - 24-30 = Up/Down
2019 - 23-29 = ?/Down
2020 - 21-27 = ?
So besides 2015 (which is suspect for other reasons) and 2017, the weeks gains or losses have confluence with the prevailing or Macro Trend. For 2015 and 2017 price seemed to follow more of the local trend instead of the Macro Trend. Sending 2015 out to the dumpster for obvious reasons, 2017 does make sense as that was the turning point after what we now know was the All Time High. The overall Macro trend was indeed Bullish as we were in Pullback mode but we didn't know at the time that only a handful days before was going to post record highs that we have yet to return to.
Potential Results:
Certainly nothing as clear cut as I would have liked but interesting nonetheless.
Avg Christmas Day came out to a positive 2.68% while Avg Weekly came out to a positive 1.65% from Monday open to Sunday Close for the week that Christmas fell into.
Every year except 2015 traded LOWER than Average Volume at the time.
Every Christmas except for 2015 (again) posted Gains for Christmas Day from Open to Close with a low of 0.69% and a high of 13.21%.
Besides 2015 (again...) and 2017, the other 6 years followed their respective overall Macro Trend when it came to the Week of Christmas.
Historically it appears that most December volume is in a decline from the beginning of the month and with Christmas at the end of the month it appears to suffer from very little trading volume as a general metric.
Our Macro Trend at the moment is DOWN and our current Volume has certainly struggled to post above average lately. It is a little too early to call the local trend as the last 4 days we have sat in range after a $700 candle to the upside.
For Coinbase We could only get data for 2015-2018 but by and large, things were confluent with STAMP.
That about wraps it up. I may add to this if some other metrics pop out. Something like the individual volume nodes for the week range and in what place was Christmas Day compared to the others, etc. We shall see...
Until then... Merry Christmas
To break things down quickly, I really just wanted to know if there was any kind of pattern that could be found while analyzing previous weeks that Christmas fell on. I wanted to start with Christmas day and see if it was heavily traded or dead quiet. Then I wanted to expand into the week and see how Christmas compared to the week itself.
There is a lot of Data to choose from as to what is relevant and what is not. I will mainly focus on Volume.
I shouldn't need to say this but I will anyway. In no way am I "comparing" Christmas week of 2011 with Christmas week of 2019. For far too many reasons than I care to get into, that would just be crazy. I am mostly just looking at the data to get an overall feel. Bitcoin is super young and with only 8 years worth of data on STAMP, it's just not enough for a deep analysis.
I will cross reference the overlapping available years with Coinbase to try to get a better understanding and see what comparisons can be made.
Anyway, this intro is far too long... Let's get started.
I started with the most simple metric available. Christmas day. Bullish or Bearish and by what percent up or down and what the percent equaled in dollars at the time.
Let's take a look at 2011 as an example.
For 2011 we can see that on Christmas day we posted a daily gain of 1.41% (o.o6) and the Week that Christmas fell on Posted an 8.84% loss (-$0.42) from the Open on Monday to the Close on Sunday.
So the Data for Christmas Day is as follows:
Christmas Day:
2011 - 1.41% = $0.06
2012 - 0.69% = $0.09
2013 - 10.37% = $70.26
2014 - 2.63% = $8.42
2015 - -8.37% = -$38.11
2016 - 0.72% = $6.45
2017 - 13.21% = $1838.94
2018 - 0.79% = $30.01
2019 - Wednesday
2020 - Friday
The Day that Christmas fell on:
Christmas Day:
2011 - Sunday
2012 - Tuesday
2013 - Wednesday
2014 - Thursday
2015 - Friday
2016 - Sunday
2017 - Monday
2018 - Tuesday
2019 - Wednesday
2020 - Friday
And the Week that housed Christmas and the results:
Holiday Week including Christmas:
Monday - Sunday
2011 - 19-25 = -8.84% = -$0.42
2012 - 24-30 = 0.08% = $0.01
2013 - 23-29 = 12.48% = $81.74
2014 - 22-28 = -5.87% = -$19.51
2015 - 21-27 = -3.81% = -$16.68
2016 - 19-25 = 13.41% = $106.07
2017 - 25-31 = -3.46% = -$482.09
2018 - 24-30 = -8.46% = -$341.24
2019 - 23-29 = ?
2020 - 21-27 = ?
So, besides 2015, on the Day of Christmas we have posted gains ranging from a low of 0.69% to a high of 13.21%.
The Weekly results were far less Bullish as 5 of 8 were weeks that resulted in a loss from Monday to Sunday. The losses ranged from -3.46% to -8.84% while the three weeks that rose from Monday to Sunday ranged from 0.08% up to 13.41%.
I wanted to see where the volume sat on Christmas in comparison to the Volume average.
Here are the results:
Christmas Day Above/Below
Average Volume:
2011 - Below
2012 - Below
2013 - Below
2014 - Below
2015 - Above
2016 - Below
2017 - Below
2018 - Below
2019 - ?
2020 - ?
Oddly enough, the only Christmas Day that posted negative results was also the only Christmas Day where the trading Volume was above average. That particular Christmas was in 2015 and landed on a Friday. It is also the only Friday Christmas we have data for. The next will be in 2020.
From here I wanted to capture the Local and Macro trends from which preceded the Week that Christmas fell into.
Here is an example from 2016:
Here is the resulting data:
Holiday Week Local/Macro Trend:
2011 - 19-25 = Up/Down
2012 - 24-30 = Range/Up
2013 - 23-29 = Up/Up
2014 - 22-28 = Down/Down
2015 - 21-27 = Down/Up
2016 - 19-25 = Up/Up
2017 - 25-31 = Down/Up
2018 - 24-30 = Up/Down
2019 - 23-29 = ?/Down
2020 - 21-27 = ?
So besides 2015 (which is suspect for other reasons) and 2017, the weeks gains or losses have confluence with the prevailing or Macro Trend. For 2015 and 2017 price seemed to follow more of the local trend instead of the Macro Trend. Sending 2015 out to the dumpster for obvious reasons, 2017 does make sense as that was the turning point after what we now know was the All Time High. The overall Macro trend was indeed Bullish as we were in Pullback mode but we didn't know at the time that only a handful days before was going to post record highs that we have yet to return to.
Potential Results:
Certainly nothing as clear cut as I would have liked but interesting nonetheless.
Avg Christmas Day came out to a positive 2.68% while Avg Weekly came out to a positive 1.65% from Monday open to Sunday Close for the week that Christmas fell into.
Every year except 2015 traded LOWER than Average Volume at the time.
Every Christmas except for 2015 (again) posted Gains for Christmas Day from Open to Close with a low of 0.69% and a high of 13.21%.
Besides 2015 (again...) and 2017, the other 6 years followed their respective overall Macro Trend when it came to the Week of Christmas.
Historically it appears that most December volume is in a decline from the beginning of the month and with Christmas at the end of the month it appears to suffer from very little trading volume as a general metric.
Our Macro Trend at the moment is DOWN and our current Volume has certainly struggled to post above average lately. It is a little too early to call the local trend as the last 4 days we have sat in range after a $700 candle to the upside.
For Coinbase We could only get data for 2015-2018 but by and large, things were confluent with STAMP.
That about wraps it up. I may add to this if some other metrics pop out. Something like the individual volume nodes for the week range and in what place was Christmas Day compared to the others, etc. We shall see...
Until then... Merry Christmas
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